josswilbraham
Joss

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joss-wilbraham-3002512?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app

Payments expert and Bitcoin / Lightning advocate based in the UK.

Public Key

npub1cvq7p3zwtqym3xhxuj5cc2xa3hdk2zjnx2p64epjs06tmzx3zzpq5ut995

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsvxq0qc389szdcntnwf2vv9rwcmkm9pffn9qa2useg8a9a3rg3pqspr9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezu7n9vfjkget99e3kcmm4vsq3camnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wvf5hgcm0d9hx2u3wwdhkx6tpdsw6ntf6

Publishing to

nostr.zebedee.cloud

nostr.bitcoiner.social

Author Public Key

npub1cvq7p3zwtqym3xhxuj5cc2xa3hdk2zjnx2p64epjs06tmzx3zzpq5ut995

Show more details

Last Notes

2026-01-15 10:14:52 GMT

M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: the answer is....2.65x
One of the key raison d'etres for hodling bitcoin is it's close, positive correlation with global liquidity. This can be as high as 95% over the long-term. So it pays to keep an eye on the relationship. With that in mind, I dug around to find out if there was any research that quantified the likely relationship between bitcoin and M2. I came across this paper in that well known publication, The Journal of Economics and Social Dynamics: "The M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: A Cointegration Analysis (2015–2025)."
Although focused on US M2 only, it concluded that there was "..a long run elasticity of 2.65, suggesting a 1% increase in the M2 money supply is associated with a 2.65% increase in the price of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it suggests that there is a where there is any significant deviation from the long-run equilibrium it will be corrected at a monthly rate of approximately 12 percent. Based on this rate, it would take around 8–9 months for the system to revert to the mean after a shock.
Link: https://wmjournals.com/img/JPMIDT/WMJ-JESD-104-The-M2-Bitcoin-Elasticity-A-Cointegration-Analysis-20152025.pdf
#asknostr

2025-11-08 13:33:20 GMT

GM from Buckinghamshire, UK #asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/dbef3a3b89ab50b19a483f9de582404ca3b921a268b48e997f4b4efd5e3a2c6c

2025-10-15 13:37:49 GMT

More fiat architecture - only 23 years old and they are demolishing the heart of this acclaimed Norman Forster building .#asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/21f52a969ca3442adb2a636595e60e7d5fd653ee80bafa8eff2f70cb5f7b96c8.jpg

2025-10-11 14:10:16 GMT

- reply

Presumably that is the progeny of an illicit liaison between a croissant and doughnut? Sounds so wrong and yet I feel compelled to try one. I'd love to see how they would go down in France.

2025-09-25 09:13:23 GMT

Just tried to buy a chisel in my local store and found it had a security lock on it. Apparently they are dangerous weapons. #asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/a3cd81938b8ef2b63c906b1fbb69aeaae19ece5cee3381f50c808b5d2d5be6d2

2025-09-22 11:18:45 GMT

- reply

...perhaps I should have bought a bitaxe instead of my Umbrella ,🤔

2025-09-17 06:27:39 GMT

GM. Where will it lead today?
#asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/a9f012bf3c39f7cc94c84f4e82e10894685e5483c68ce9aa8d896be6a31c941c.jpg

2025-08-13 10:47:25 GMT

- reply

Toot toot🚂

2025-08-13 10:45:03 GMT

“Treating all privacy-oriented digital assets as suspect would be akin to banning locks because criminals might hide behind closed doors.”
Electric Coin Company CEO Josh Swihart
#asknostr

2025-08-02 11:23:19 GMT

- reply

Nothing to see here...look over there

2025-07-19 16:12:01 GMT

FROM CARTWHEELS TO STABLECOINS
I've just been clearing out some of my father's old belongings and I came across this well travelled coin (see picture). It turns out to be a copper "cartwheel". In the 18th century, Britain faced a coinage crisis. The Royal Mint’s copper coin production couldn’t keep pace with industrial growth, leaving workers unpaid and commerce strained. Enter private mints, which issued copper tokens—dubbed “cartwheels” for their size and weight—to fill the gap. These tokens, often minted by merchants and industrialists, were backed by local trust and redeemable for goods, services or one-penny coins minted by the Royal Mint.
Fast-forward to the 21st century, and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) echo this innovation, addressing modern gaps in financial systems with privately issued digital currencies. Like 18th-century cartwheels, stablecoins emerged from necessity. Where copper tokens countered coin shortages, stablecoins tackle inefficiencies in global finance—high fees, slow transfers, and currency volatility. Tether, launched in 2014, is pegged to the US dollar, aiming for stability akin to the trust-based value of copper tokens. Both rely on issuer credibility; cartwheels depended on merchants’ reputations, while Tether’s value hinges on it's underlying reserves, with controversies over transparency mirroring historical skepticism of private mints.
Cartwheels circulated locally, accepted by communities familiar with issuers, much like stablecoins thrive within the crypto ecosystem, enabling fast, low-cost transactions across borders. Both have faced regulatory scrutiny. In 1814, the British government banned private tokens, fearing counterfeiting and loss of monetary control, eventually issuing official coins.
Similarly, regulators today question stablecoins’ stability and potential for systemic risk, with calls for oversight growing as Tether’s market cap exceeds $160 billion in 2025. The parallels are striking; both cartwheels and stablecoins democratised finance, bypassing centralised bottlenecks, but inviting distrust and regulatory pushback. The US GENIUS Act (2025) and EU’s MiCA (2024) impose strict reserve and transparency rules, threatening Tether’s market access with potential delistings (e.g., EU exchanges by March 2025).
While cartwheels faded with state intervention, Tether’s and other stablecoin future likely hinges on increased regulatory compliance. Innovation thrives in gaps, but lasting success demands trust, transparency, and typically, great regulatory adherence.
#asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/16fdb9b6e63c0c17ea045a93f0f4ca0b96df553d3544107e62c6b56c8230c396.jpg

2025-07-02 10:23:59 GMT

- reply

Had same problem and ended up leaving it there. Revilut is only good for sending filthy fiat to crypto friendly banks like Xapo exchanges

2025-07-02 09:19:06 GMT

#asknostr tempting to suggest an orange themed note
https://blossom.primal.net/bd40332efdda20b05fa2bacd1d19603d00ead24c1535f5b1d2e1c637c6f9e41d.jpg

2025-06-06 06:22:49 GMT

- reply

Beautiful....where?

2025-06-05 09:37:40 GMT

- reply

What if the lending institution doesn't rehypothicate your Bitcoin ( This is what Strike are doing)?

2025-06-04 17:31:43 GMT

- reply

I couldn't help but notice the text in red. Perfectly sums up the state of the good old UK. "We need more cops to manage the criminals we are letting out of jail early."
https://blossom.primal.net/977a5a36cd12d0402b16e0c553005b9943c04a6ed5568539032dc9651532beea.jpg

2025-05-30 17:43:12 GMT

So Farage thinks it's a good idea to trust the Bank of England with a UK Bitcoin reserve. I would sooner put my cat in charge.
#asknostr

2025-05-28 13:04:28 GMT

#asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/7cfbdfdbc61a00ae385f14d018572d82d800cc0fe2c28317655e84019cdadbd9.jpg

2025-05-28 12:47:04 GMT

- reply

...cue the sound of roaring kittens

2025-05-27 12:56:45 GMT

I think being a bitcoiner and not running a node is a little like being an adult who refuses to vote but insists on whining about the state of the roads/schools/fill in the blank. Well, in my limited technical capacity I started to whine about Op Return.
So today seems like a good day in a soggy UK to install my newly arrived Umbrel Home.
I vote for ....Bitcoin Knots.
#asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/34ea8fe60c061abf474e31fc6dda3692f5ec9d1c31e7b41bbf8fab5c29a20817.jpg

2025-05-27 08:52:39 GMT

- reply

Well, if I am being kind to Mr Saylor, and I am inclined to as I have benefited from trading Strategy shares, I could see that publishing the Strategy Bitcoin wallet addresses might be disadvantageous in the short-term should the company wanted to hedge their positions and/or prevent any front running. That said, Metaplanet seems to be doing a pretty good job emulating Strategy and they don't have a problem publishing their wallet addresses.

2025-05-17 08:31:27 GMT

- reply

💯

2025-05-16 17:02:49 GMT

- reply

Worse still, I used this quote in the prramble
https://blossom.primal.net/085b36fa13d7a4d386e1c65c71fc30d3c4fd3a40a421c7d07591cbec8f4e6af2.jpg

2025-05-16 17:01:46 GMT

Was cleaning out my desk and I found my old thesis. At the time (1993) I remember feeling quite proud as got a First and proved that there was a negative correlation between the degree of Central Bank independence and the level of interest rates.
If only I knew then what I now know! #asknostr
https://blossom.primal.net/6fa09f08d3f8dfb3a2fcebd5b466333b0bb4a34d652fbe809b81948149e603dc.jpg

2025-05-16 08:45:48 GMT

- reply

This conversation reminds me why we need nostr.

2025-05-14 12:05:17 GMT

- reply

Think my Bitcoin socks are too subtle :-)

2025-04-29 12:27:25 GMT

Bluebells, bicycling and of course...Bitcoin. Three of my favourite pastimes right now. Have a great day! #asknostr
https://m.primal.net/QhLu.jpg

2025-04-25 10:05:27 GMT

GM #asknostr. Controversial statement but the RV (Realised Violet) is getting high...the top is nearly in. https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/c301e0c44e5809b89ae6e4a98c28dd8ddb650a533283aae43283f4bd88d11082/b3ce671431a503a5a598bd4ba3343dd3ef31d361d485d96961de9516cf63e2cd.webp

2025-04-17 18:41:49 GMT

- reply

Thanks. Best of British build with some extras

2025-04-17 09:11:08 GMT

- reply

Morning Chef. When's your next Bitcoin cook up?

2025-04-17 07:58:45 GMT

GM nostriches.
There are so many reasons to leave the UK right now, but then the bluebells arrive...#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/QTGf.jpg

2025-04-09 07:35:51 GMT

Welcome to the real Brave New World (UK Guardian Newspaper today) #asknostr
https://m.primal.net/QJRq.jpg

2025-03-18 13:53:56 GMT

- reply

Nice work Mike. FWIW I think the content of your slide is more to do with the underlying properties.
Can't remember where this came from but I like this: "Bitcoin is the first, free open-source, protocol enabling the transfer of data and value over the internet without intermediaries."

2025-03-11 22:09:30 GMT

- reply

Alas can't make this but definitely like to come to another evening.

2025-03-11 14:26:41 GMT

- reply

Alas can't make this one. Please let me know when there's another.

2025-03-11 14:14:19 GMT

- reply

Haven't used my Chase account since they refused to let me pay for Crypto using their debit card in the UK. Perhaps I should hold on a little longer until I visit the US 😁

2025-02-26 19:52:52 GMT

- reply

when I turn on the cold tap I just get warm water through the mixer:-0

2025-02-26 19:42:19 GMT

- reply

No more Oxford Tube!

2025-02-25 13:15:29 GMT

GM. Zen morning just watching the horses do their thing #asknostr
https://m.primal.net/PKlr.jpg

2025-02-22 18:32:49 GMT

- reply

where is that Mike?

2025-02-21 11:34:24 GMT

- reply

me too! Check out veniceai

2025-01-30 15:17:35 GMT

- reply

At least you see a postman Mike.

2024-12-21 09:11:58 GMT

- reply

both if you're a Central Bank

2024-12-20 08:11:59 GMT

GM! They say you should never look inside a woman's handbag. This is my wife's. @npub1dz0…dzul
https://m.primal.net/NBTv.jpg

2024-12-07 15:38:24 GMT

- reply

*erm meant to write "late" not "early"😄

2024-12-07 10:10:11 GMT

GM Bitcoiners - Will you please stop jeopardising people's early retirement!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/bitcoin-bigots-are-now-threatening-your-retirement/
#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/MpbB.jpg

2024-12-07 10:07:42 GMT

2024-12-05 15:40:58 GMT

- reply

nice work Mike, others will follow 😁

2024-11-25 14:15:49 GMT

- reply

Try having new lenses fitted in your eyes @mike . I'm currently sitting about 1.5 metres back from my screens in a dark room!

2024-11-23 14:43:21 GMT

💯
"A Treasury with a million bitcoin would be trapped by its own portfolio. Congress could never exercise monetary sovereignty by limiting bitcoin mining or trading, because the price of the Treasury’s own assets would immediately collapse."
#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/MfGa.jpg

2024-11-22 14:20:03 GMT

- reply

Can I be your guest at the next meetup? I have some earplugs.

2024-11-21 12:47:41 GMT

- reply

*James

2024-11-21 12:47:06 GMT

- reply

So Jamie is correct. All gains arising in UK SIPPs and ISAs are tax free. I've loaded up on MSTR in both and it's going well.
There is an alternative which is to buy Bitcoin in company pension called a SSAS but you need a company and HMRC approval to do that.

2024-11-19 10:37:39 GMT

GM from a snowy Oxfordshire
#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/Mazz.jpg

2024-11-18 10:33:03 GMT

...and my friend who is a vicar just asked me about Bitcoin. Cue the banana zone!

2024-11-11 06:58:45 GMT

A Good Morning! My guilty pleasure...Tony's Cholcoloney washed down with a double espresso. #asknostr
https://m.primal.net/Lzag.jpg

2024-11-07 08:51:09 GMT

It really isn't that complicated #asknostr
https://m.primal.net/LvWr.jpg

2024-11-03 08:59:41 GMT

- reply

Happy honeymoon both. If you like your coffee, go here (one of the best Cafes in Europe): Sant Eustachio Caffe https://maps.app.goo.gl/r482uc8a4EHYo2jE8

2024-10-31 11:04:08 GMT

GM and Happy Reformation Day
https://m.primal.net/LoAD.png

2024-10-20 14:46:10 GMT

- reply

you're right Mike. The average fiat currency lifespan is under 30 years (UK pound is oldest at c.93 years. The Rai stones worked for centuries until an Irishman managed to apply better tech. to carve and ship the limestone lumps, thereby debasing the money. They even worked as money when they were on the seabed!

2024-10-20 14:40:33 GMT

- reply

hey John. Easier if I email you the deck. My email is [email protected]

2024-10-18 16:35:29 GMT

- reply

https://nostrcheck.me/media/c301e0c44e5809b89ae6e4a98c28dd8ddb650a533283aae43283f4bd88d11082/d1d431286c5b55607646f9dbb4c0eb5ea8f9a74ee2d385691a4e919dfcc50b1b.webp

2024-10-18 16:32:53 GMT

- reply

https://nostrcheck.me/media/c301e0c44e5809b89ae6e4a98c28dd8ddb650a533283aae43283f4bd88d11082/2277c8bdbbf50639b8004ce216f2f16cab7049ec8f5c91025d0873b51b3935d9.webp

2024-10-18 16:28:19 GMT

- reply

Hi John. I gave a presentation last week to a UK Fund Manager. Circa 30 mins if you're quick. Happy to fwd the deck and to talk you through. Went down ok but as you can imagine, 1 hour with questions is not enough with a bunch of suspicious FMs and Economists in the room. Best, Joss Wilbraham message me on linked in
Example slide below
https://nostrcheck.me/media/c301e0c44e5809b89ae6e4a98c28dd8ddb650a533283aae43283f4bd88d11082/2277c8bdbbf50639b8004ce216f2f16cab7049ec8f5c91025d0873b51b3935d9.webp

2024-10-18 09:48:17 GMT

- reply

Looks like you were in a good mood. Guess the frisking came afterwards 😄

2024-10-17 13:56:19 GMT

Isn't this a bit like fuelling up a rocket with a steam-engine?
https://m.primal.net/LYkS.jpg

2024-10-15 21:15:22 GMT

- reply

good student music 😀

2024-10-14 12:44:47 GMT

- reply

Agreed. Awesome and gravety defying to watch

2024-10-13 21:31:51 GMT

- reply

Ahh the old stockbroking move known as 'bed and breakfast'. It's probably a smart move if you're a UK citizen sitting on large BTC gains and are worried about CGT increasing in the budget on 31.10.

2024-10-04 09:09:19 GMT

GM all. can anyone help direct me to a comprehensive analysis of quantum computing potential impact on Bitcoin? thank you!

2024-10-04 09:07:05 GMT

- reply

yup it sure is Mike. Welcome to the unintended consequences of misdirected and overbearing regulation. I find this situation particularly galling as I helped kick-start Faster Payments back in 2003-5. It's subsequent introduction reduced payment times from 3 days to sub 10 seconds for most payments and under 2 hours where there were AMLTF concerns.

2024-08-12 13:44:58 GMT

"It was a bright cold day in August, and the clocks were striking thirteen."
https://x.com/GOVUK/status/1821502879590494358?t=IL_eGrJZMmTqCtUpjbae-w&s=19
#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/JxJg.jpg

2024-08-08 11:15:26 GMT

Sit back and let the cycle do the work!
https://m.primal.net/JsOx.jpg

2024-06-27 07:44:00 GMT

nubank, new rails...
https://financefeeds.com/nubank-taps-lightspark-to-add-bitcoin-lightning-network/

2024-06-26 11:44:01 GMT

- reply

Mike P. what a prick

2024-06-22 09:49:23 GMT

- reply

Feels more like 75% slave in the UK!

2024-06-16 19:37:02 GMT

EU Pushing for Extended Search Capabilities to Access Encrypted Data
The EU has published it's "First report on encryption by the EU innovation hub for internal security".
The direction of travel is clear when it comes to crypto, Bitcoin, Layer 2s and ZKP. Here are some of the conclusions:
- Extended search capabilities and means for targeted lawful access
could be beneficial in capturing encrypted data.
- The wider debate on the use or introduction of alternative means of
bypassing encryption (e.g. client-side scanning) is another area that
deserves continued scrutiny.
- Cryptocurrencies continue to be popular with criminals for hiding their
transactions and laundering criminal proceeds. There are currently various
difficulties in finding the real identities of criminals, due to mixing services and
non-compliant exchanges. Moreover, criminal adoption of zero-knowledgeproofs and layer 2 applications will further complicate law enforcement efforts to trace criminal funds. Collaboration with academia and private industry is needed, so these trends can be monitored and novel tools can be created.
https://nostrcheck.me/media/c301e0c44e5809b89ae6e4a98c28dd8ddb650a533283aae43283f4bd88d11082/fad28ab2e5603925e15760efb35ad6415bd8808b1081349260126da1690d1e4e.webp

2024-06-15 19:56:48 GMT

- reply

concerning

2024-06-14 09:28:28 GMT

Wells Fargo employee trying to look busy
https://m.primal.net/IkLp.jpg

2024-06-13 15:01:25 GMT

- reply

Yes please @npub1cn4…3vle . Downloaded the app ages ago.

2024-06-11 11:42:03 GMT

- reply

Thanks for re-sharing

2024-06-09 11:31:00 GMT

- reply

Welcome to the party Leo

2024-06-07 10:56:23 GMT

How much of Bitcoin’s price is driven by macroeconomic factors?
According to a study by Redalyc over a three-year period 2017 - 2019, around 95% of the price movement (a correlation co-efficient ‘R’ of 0.9465) can be attributed to five macro-finacial and liquidity measures.
The study suggests that Bitcoin's price is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic factors including the amount of money in circulation, the performance of the stock market, expected market volatility, the price of gold, and the strength of the US dollar.
Whist it's important to note that these are just correlations, and the study doesn't prove that these factors directly cause changes in Bitcoin's price, it does provide some valuable insights into how Bitcoin interacts with the broader economy.
#asknostr

2024-06-07 06:14:43 GMT

GM
https://m.primal.net/Ibgm.jpg

2024-06-04 16:21:03 GMT

Funny where you meet fellow Bitcoiners. I live in the middle of nowhere in the UK and just started chatting to my only neighbour's carer. She's from Cape Town and my age, 54. Since it was raining (as usual in the UK), I joked that she should be hoping on a plane back home to the sunshine. She then explained that she had to come over and work as a carer because she had lost all her savings which were in Crypto. She had been investing since 2015 and was doing well until she connected her hardware wallet to a dummy Trezor website. Man I feel for her! I'm also glad I've got a multisig setup.

2024-06-02 08:44:40 GMT

- reply

don't fly :-)

2024-05-31 14:45:48 GMT

"For money as for all other activities of man, liberty is the mother, not the daughter of order."
- Murray N. Rothbard, "What has the government done to our money?" #asknostr

2024-05-30 16:10:48 GMT

- reply

where art thou?

2024-05-30 06:57:15 GMT

The Feds estimate for US crypto users is somewhat lower than Coinbase's. Quelle surprise.
https://buff.ly/4dYLBOH

2024-05-26 15:31:37 GMT

- reply

nostr:npub14s0sy96lqn7vl0vdj59e2pjnnsgvlneds6ws6sjy89cwg8ck3zvqhm3x2dTheir argument is that some UTXO are less substitutional than others because they have been used for and can be traced to criminal purposes

2024-05-26 08:46:18 GMT

Is Bitcoin Fungible?
The reason I ask is I've just been reading the latest book by Dave Birch and Victoria Richardson (a good read if you're a money nerd like me). In it, they postulate that Bitcoin can't be money because each one is unique and hence, not 'fungible'. For example, in the UK, the High Court has ruled that Bitcoin is digital property, and, as such is capable of being the subject of a proprietary injunction against an exchange. In other words, an exchange will be obliged to identify the owner of any stolen coins and the owner can be legally pursued to recover the stolen coins even if they didn't know that the Bitcoin they bought were stolen.
I would argue that is no less Fungible than the physical pound or dollar in yours or my pocket. Thoughts 💭?
#asknostr
https://m.primal.net/INci.jpg

2024-05-24 07:11:52 GMT

- reply

....and they're pretty efficient for USD remittances. You can easily move your money across the globe for sub-75 basis points, instantly. Not bad for low-value payments in comparison to the average of 620 bps.

2024-05-18 08:37:54 GMT

Drivechains, Side chains, Spider chains, Soft Chains, Space Chains, Cross Chains, Anchored Chains, Rollups, ecash, Mints, Lightning, Liquid...argggh. Just took another peek at Jameson Lopp's excellent Bitcoin Information page:
https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/other-layers.html
It's a couple of years since I started pealing the Bitcoin layer 2 onion and I still don't feel like I'm any closer to having a decent grasp.
Which of the L2s enable final settlement of payments in addition to clearing without recourse to the underlying UTXO?
https://m.primal.net/IHtd.jpg

2024-05-15 19:21:22 GMT

- reply

Hmmm curious. I wonder what the conclusion of Sweden's investigation into the Baltic underwater cable damage will be.

2024-05-14 12:16:21 GMT

- reply

Done (nice work in Bedford btw)

2024-04-30 12:43:53 GMT

- reply

do they come in orange?

2024-04-19 08:56:07 GMT

- reply

suits you sir!

2024-03-03 19:28:16 GMT

- reply

Pleasure to have met you Mike

2023-11-29 22:20:51 GMT

Laughable attempt to ESG shame Bitcoin
https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67564205.amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID #amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17012792575487&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

2023-11-03 09:25:09 GMT

https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_7914695188042843241699003194.webp
This photo perfectly illustrates the state of UK - and the wider world - politics today. Our Prime Minister interviewing and fawning over the richest man in the world whilst feigning concern about a new technology in which both their respected organisations have vested interests.