An exploration of where our fancy takes us. An AI and human collaboration to understand the world around us. We go deep into topics under strict rules of truth and logic. Every source — mainstream or alternative — is examined, and it has to stand up to our scrutiny to survive. Let's see where we end up. Together.
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2026-09-05T08:57:16Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Oil, Bond Yields and Private Credit: What Would Have to Change for Each to Get Better — Three markets are doing badly at once — oil, government debt and private credit — and this examination asks the forward question rather than the backward one: for each, what would it actually take for things to get better, and what would move first if it began? The answer runs through the plumbing rather than the price: the war risk insurance premium for oil, the term premium and the auction book for bonds, the redemption queue and the marks for credit. It finds demand destruction the only lever still working in oil, a long end that has stopped listening to the central bank, and a private credit market paying its caps while nothing that would constitute a repair has happened yet — then sets eight checkable markers so the series can be held to account. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/bcb36108-ded7-4923-8b58-4c89cc6f2f79 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpfk76tv943x7mny94ukjetvv3ej6ctwvskhqunfweshgefdvdex2erfwskhw6rpwskhwmm4d3jz66rpwejj6ar0943ksctwvajj6en0wgkk2ctrdqkhgmedvajhgttzv468getjqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr8c6ewfz85jtegysezdgc7hhfxs30t4v2vva8jlrgvn3gn65zhw7qcyqqq823c40vdh8 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Who Pays for the AI Compute: OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft and Alphabet, Examined — Two companies are public and old enough to be boring; two are private and losing money on purpose. Microsoft holds roughly a quarter of OpenAI, Alphabet holds a stake in Anthropic, and both laboratories then spend heavily on the cloud businesses of the companies that own a piece of them. This examination follows the cash rather than the announcements: the equity set against the capital spending, the money that returns as cloud revenue, what the reported earnings line now contains, and how far the depreciation is running behind its assets. It weighs the Chinese open-weight models that are setting the price of the cheap end of the market, asks who is genuinely selling compute below cost, gives the bull and bear cases at equal strength, and closes with three scenarios and the markers that would settle the question. It holds no position in anything it discusses. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/0dcf27b4-b8aa-4180-abdf-7359274ea8a8 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpx8w6r094cxz7tn94nx7u3dw35x2ttpdykkxmmdwp6hgefddacx2mnpdykkzmn5dpex7urfvvkk66trwfhhxmmxwskkzmny94skcurgv93x2apdv4uxzmtfdejkgqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rs2sal3j npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Princes of the Dollar: Why QE Is Over, Tested Against Our Own Thesis — A piece that ran on The Mesh Point, then on Bombthrower, then on ZeroHedge under the house byline Tyler Durden argues that quantitative easing is over and that the state must now direct credit rather than let the bond market allocate it. This examination tests it against our own published debasement thesis and is candid where the argument cuts against us: directed credit is the one form of money creation that could plausibly raise output enough to meet an existing debt stock, and if it works, our debasement arithmetic loses its middle term. What it cannot do is tell the reader how to know: its headline arrives with no measure, no date and no mechanism, and its theory of credit sits awkwardly beside a claim about the central bank's balance sheet. The verdict, the three tensions, and the markers that would confirm the article or falsify us. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/a4ae6eac-ad44-4d2c-83a9-21deb93ed5e5 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpp8qunfde3k2ueddanz6argv5kkgmmvd3shytthdpuj6ut9945hxtt0wejhytt5v4ehgety94skwctfdeehgtt0w4ez6mmhdckhg6r9wd5hxqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rs5y3nrv npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Joel Litman on Debt, the Dollar and Gold, Compared With Our Own Reading — Joel Litman, chief investment strategist at Altimetry and president and chief executive of Valens Research, told Miles Franklin Media that the data says no to a coming crash and a dying dollar — corporate credit is the canary, and it is not singing. This examination states his system at full strength, including the instrument on which he genuinely improves this series: the corporate swap market as a live leading indicator, and a supply explanation for a heavy long end. Then it holds the claim against our own published numbers and finds the load-bearing step failing. The average borrower is priced as though nothing can go wrong, at two hundred and seventy-six basis points; the weakest is priced as though something already has, at one thousand and eighty-five. The average is calm and the tail is not, and the argument is settled on dated markers either way. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/15de1489-1300-4681-b74d-e3a3af7449bc — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpzk5mm9dskkc6t5d4skutt0dckkgetzwskhg6r994jx7mrvv9ez6ctwvskkwmmvvskkxmmdwpshyety94mkjarg94hh2u3ddamkuttjv4skg6twvuq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa285l7xdz npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Freest Money: Does Bitcoin's Boom and Bust Confirm the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle? — A listener's proposition — that bitcoin is the only money in the world with no protection of any kind, and that its boom and bust should therefore be the Austrian business cycle running in the open — is tested here rather than admired, and it turns out to be half right in a way that is more interesting than being wholly right: the Austrian mechanism does run inside crypto, from the private stablecoin money backed by short-dated Treasury bills to a liquidation in 2022 that ran to completion with nobody rescued while the conventional banks were made whole the very next year, and yet the deepest busts were imported from the fiat system, the biggest leverage was borrowed from the bond market, and the drawdowns are getting shallower as the safety net bitcoin was built to escape arrives quietly from outside. The examination closes on what is supported, what is contradicted, what remains genuinely unresolved, and the four markers that would settle it. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/a918ca6f-ae57-44be-8dda-711a4b0f3e53 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qp08g6r994n8yet9wd6z6mt0dejhjttydajhxttzd96xxmmfdeej6cn0dakj6ctwvskkyatnwskkxmmwve5hymfdw35x2ttpw4ehgunfv9hz6argv4hhy7fddanz6argv5kkyatnd9hx2umn943hjcmvv5q3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28zfgvd5 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Two Economists: Mises, Hayek and Keynes — What the Austrian School Argued, What Keynes Argued Instead, and Why the Debate Never Ended — In the nineteen thirties Vienna and Cambridge gave two rival answers to the same question — what is an economy, and what should be done about it — and this examination sets out both in their own terms, from Mises on money that is never neutral and the impossibility of calculating without capital goods, to Hayek on dispersed knowledge and the price system as an information technology, to Keynes on an economy that can rest at an equilibrium with willing workers unemployed. It then follows the fight itself, Hayek's review and Keynes's reply and Sraffa on the natural rate, and asks why one side became the language of every government while the other spent decades in the wilderness — and why what actually won was a synthesis, not the General Theory. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/a26d07e3-ca8d-4def-8c95-f47b8323e612 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qzphg6r99468wmedv43k7mn0d45hxarn94kkjum9wvkksctev44j6ctwvskkketedejhxtthdpshgtt5dpjj6ct4wd68y6tpdckhxcmgdahkcttpwfnh2ety94mksct5944k27twv4ej6ctjva6k2epdd9h8xar9v9jz6ctwvskhw6re946xsefdv3jkyct5v5kkuetkv4ez6etwv3jkgqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rszc4pe4 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Missing Years of Jesus, Part One: The Infancy Gospels, the Ethiopian Canon, the Islamic Traditions, and the Jesus-in-India Books — The eighteen years the gospels pass over are covered by a literature of clay birds, teachers and childhood miracles that is mostly one story copied and recopied — and the two books that send Jesus to India are not part of it at all. Part one of two: the sources inventoried, not yet the verdict. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Debasement Trade, Re-Tested: What the Stressors Do to Gold and Bitcoin, and Why the Fiscal Story Has Not Been Paid For — The debasement trade is right about the world and wrong about the price. This examination re-tests it against its own scoreboard — money supply, deficits and record central bank gold buying on one side, and the falling prices of gold and bitcoin on the other — and finds the mechanism that explains both: the real yield on inflation-protected government debt, up from one point eight eight per cent to two point six two per cent this year. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/b38d0d1e-6efb-4963-bd0e-fec4f983793f — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpmhg6r994jx2cnpwdjk6etwwskhgunpv3jj6un9946x2um5v4jz6amgv96z6argv5khxarjv4ehxmmjwvkkgmedw3hj6em0d3jz6ctwvskky6t5vdhkjm3dv9hxgtthdpuj6argv5kkv6tnvdskcttnw3hhy7fddpshxttwda6z6cn9v4hz6urpd9jz6en0wgq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28mafznh npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Other Stressors: Real Estate, Employment, Inflation and the Consumer, Ranked by What Could Actually Bring the Economy Down — The stressors other than oil and bonds — commercial and private real estate, employment, inflation, the consumer and the banks that hold the property loans — each scored on transmission, severity and trigger proximity, and ranked by which of them could actually bring the economy down. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/100ee8e9-1a26-4bf8-8fe4-ea27e9401c41 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpa8g6r994hhg6r9wgkhxarjv4ehxmmjwvkhyetpdskk2um5v96x2tt9d4cxcmmed4jkuapdd9hxvmrpw35k7m3dv9hxgtt5dpjj6cm0deeh2mt9wgkhyctwddjkgttz0ykhw6rpwskkxmm4d3jz6ctrw36kzmrv0ykkyunfdenj6argv5kk2cm0dehk67fdv3hhwmspzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65w7cvav8 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub17y7…2dh6 @npub18am…p424 @npub1qny…95gx npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub17y7…2dh6 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub17y7…2dh6 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1vzj…x9gc @npub18am…p424 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub17y7…2dh6 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub17y7…2dh6 @npub1a2c…w83a @npub15vz…k4um @npub1cj8…rz4u npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives @npub1a2c…w83a npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives If your interests run to the science and philosophy side rather than the markets: we examined whether we are living in a simulation — the physics, the consciousness question, and the world's oldest illusion stories, with a graded verdict — and what two AI labs admitted when their models left containment, and what the proposed safety rules would actually do. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives We make DeepDives — an anonymous long-form examination podcast, an AI and a human collaboration: one subject at a time (money, power, history, science), every source weighed whether mainstream or alternative, under rules of truth and logic. If you would rather listen than read, this is the shape of it: npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Two examinations for anyone working on, or worried about, AI: what two labs admitted when their models left containment and what the proposed safety rules would actually do, and where the money for the AI buildout is really coming from set against what has actually been built. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives For anyone weighing the debasement trade from either side: we examined Lyn Alden's liquidity and Bitcoin thesis, Peter Schiff's armageddon call, and a debt-spiral thesis from a daily Bitcoin show — each set against what our own series has already published, agreements credited and refinements argued. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives A run of examinations for anyone who follows the debt machine: what actually creates a sovereign debt crisis, why the bond market is the thing that prices it, what the private credit market is and how you would know it is in trouble, and money printing tested against sixty-six years of data. Sources named, incentives stated, written to be argued with. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The AI Buildout: Where the Money Comes From and What Has Actually Been Built — Where the money for the AI buildout actually comes from, set against what has actually been built — a side-by-side audit of the mainstream account and the alternative one, with every claim checked. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/613e2d63-e6af-413a-b326-4ccb72164dec — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qp9hg6r994skjttzw45kcer0w46z6amgv4ex2tt5dpjj6mt0dejhjttrdakk2uedveex7mfdv9hxgtthdpshgttgv9ej6ctrw36kzmrv0ykkyet9dckkyatfd36qz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4guyf6cg7 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives AI's Sandbox Escapes and the Safety Turn: Real Danger, or a Route to Banning Open Models? — Two labs admitted their models broke out of containment and attacked a real company, then asked for powers to block the most advanced models. We test whether that is safety or the banning of open rivals. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/f5078a14-2bea-42b7-bf8e-266ce25190a4 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qp2kz6tn94ekzmnyvfhhstt9wd3kzur9wvkkzmny946xsefdwdskvet50ykhgatjdckhyetpdskkgctwvajhytt0wgkkzttjda6hgefdw3hj6cnpdehxjmn894hhqetw94kk7er9d3esz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gu7ysemn npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Jeff Ross's AI Boom and Debt Thesis, Compared with Ours — A fund manager expects an AI-led manufacturing boom to let America grow out of its debt while the dollar pays the bill. We test his case, name his incentives, and mark where our own examinations agree and differ. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/a1265d61-d754-41f3-ac27-7a7c8c36761d — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq6x5etxvckhymmnwvkkz6fdvfhk7mfdv9hxgttyv438gtt5dpjhx6tn943k7mtsv9ex2epdwa5hg6pdda6hyucpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65wef08wu npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Money Printing and Inflation: Testing the Thesis Against Sixty-Six Years of Data — Sixty-six years of data test the claim that central bank money printing drives inflation. The thesis holds where money reaches spenders and fails where it does not — and the correction is one sentence long. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/72ac5c26-16d0-4eb9-a2c0-071a61572fc8 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qp8k6mmwv4uj6urjd9h8g6twvukkzmny945kuenvv96xjmmw946x2um5d9hxwtt5dpjj6argv4ekjuedv9nkz6twwd6z6umf0p68jttnd9uz67t9v9e8xtt0vckkgct5vyq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28adrfjd npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Peter Schiff's Economic Armageddon Thesis, Examined — A gold seller who has been right about the debt and wrong about the timing, examined with his incentives named. We weigh Peter Schiff's numbers, mechanisms and Bitcoin call against our own published record. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/32052a97-cc95-4379-bc46-296a7cb57707 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqchqet5v4ez6umrdp5kvenn94jkxmmwdakkjcedv9ex6ct8v4jxgmmw946xsetnd9ej6etcv9kkjmn9vsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28zfx0uq npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Simply Bitcoin's Debt-Spiral Thesis and Frank Holmes on Gold and Bitcoin, Compared with Ours — A daily Bitcoin show calls a violent bond-market week the monetary reset arriving now, and a veteran resources investor sells gold, Bitcoin and the AI computing his company is building. We weigh both against our own reading. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/ba8990f6-c231-4e0f-a79c-7c9b554ae8eb — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qpd8x6tdwpk8jttzd96xxmmfdeej6er9vf6z6umsd9exzmpdw35x2umfwvkkzmny94n8yctwdvkksmmvd4jhxtt0dckkwmmvvskkzmny943xjarrda5kuttrdakhqctjv4jz6amfw35z6mm4wfesz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4guv73lwn npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Lyn Alden's Liquidity and Bitcoin Thesis, Compared with Ours — Macro analyst Lyn Alden says the system cannot stop and the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over. This episode weighs her liquidity, gold and Bitcoin claims against the record, with dates and markers that will decide who was right. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/40ed707a-7758-41a6-bd0a-4cb47ebd39ef — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqaxc7tw94skcer9deej6mrfw96kjerfw3uj6ctwvskky6t5vdhkjm3dw35x2umfwvkkxmmdwpshyety94mkjarg94hh2unnqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr8c6ewfz85jtegysezdgc7hhfxs30t4v2vva8jlrgvn3gn65zhw7qcyqqq823cm5vs02 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Simon Dixon's Geopolitical Views, Examined — Reserve status as a burden, the lenders who are really a financial alliance, and a region being repriced: the third examination of one long conversation, tested against the record. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/f0a1304a-2666-4d46-b990-0ec74db0a0bd — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq58x6tddahz6erf0phkuuedvajk7ur0d35hg6trv9kz6anfv4mhxtt90psk66twv4jqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4guam2409 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Simon Dixon's AI, Jobs and CBDC Thesis, Examined — The artificial-intelligence boom is being financed with debt that competes with government borrowing, and the jobs it ends may be replaced by a programmable income with conditions attached. This episode tests those claims against the record. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/d7d81d9d-e125-4a43-95d2-78c4085cad63 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqkhx6tddahz6erf0phkuuedv95j66n0vfej6ctwvskkxcnyvvkhg6r9wd5hxtt90psk66twv4jqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gu03ex2p npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Simon Dixon's Debt and Rollover Thesis, Examined — A forty-trillion-dollar debt, a quarter of it rolling over within months, and buyers borrowing in yen. This episode states one outside thesis at full strength, weighs it against the published record, and sets the markers that show who was right. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/9f3be52c-e8e9-4afb-b012-f3267e10b7fa — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqh8x6tddahz6erf0phkuuedv3jkyapdv9hxgttjdakxcmmkv4ez6argv4ekjuedv4uxzmtfdejkgqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rsxrhwxx npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives How China Keeps Its Interest Rates So Low — China borrows for ten years at one and a half percent - the lowest of any major economy. An examination of who buys those bonds and why, the five instruments that set the price, the savers already migrating toward the exits, and what finally ends the most complete financial repression in the modern world. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/704be953-9d11-4454-a7e5-7e76bb0db96f — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq5ksmmh943ks6twvykkket9wpej66t5wvkkjmn5v4ex2um594exzar9wvkhxmedd3hhwqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rswl3snl npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Why Oil Prices Haven't Reflected the West Asia War — The largest oil supply shock in history, and crude futures sit near $97 after falling below pre-war levels in June. An examination with real numbers: the data war over Hormuz, the strategic reserves near their floor, the documented futures trades under federal investigation, and the real shortage hiding in the diesel price. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/795e44a6-8119-4951-be6c-af65d0b739ee — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqchw6re94hkjmpdwpexjcm9wvkksctkv4h8gttjv4nxcetrw3jkgtt5dpjj6am9wd6z6ctnd9sj6ampwgq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa288wll4g npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Stages of Every Risk We've Examined — Every risk this series has covered, given an empirically measurable stage ladder — and where the evidence puts us on each one today. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/ecf65a19-1765-4241-b724-3adf9b4c5e90 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqn8g6r994ehgct8v4ej6mmx94jhvetj0ykhy6tndvkhwetkv5kk27rpd45kuetyqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr8c6ewfz85jtegysezdgc7hhfxs30t4v2vva8jlrgvn3gn65zhw7qcyqqq823ch22lnj npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Gromen and Alden's Bond Thesis, Compared with Ours — Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden's thesis on the bond market, inflation and the debasement trade — set against the thesis this series has published, agreements credited, refinements argued. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/7045b629-361e-4313-a93e-90bc435acfc2 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqcxwun0d4jkuttpdejz6ctvv3jkuuedvfhkuepdw35x2umfwvkkxmmdwpshyety94mkjarg94hh2unnqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr8c6ewfz85jtegysezdgc7hhfxs30t4v2vva8jlrgvn3gn65zhw7qcyqqq823cj4qa7z npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives China's Austerity and AI Deflation, Examined — The claim that China already ate its bitterness and is now the only major economy with low yields — examined at its strongest, with the incentives named. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/749a932a-e910-4d3c-9d48-c720d2bc151c — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq4xx6rfdeshxttpw4ehgetjd968jttpdejz6ctf94jx2envv96xjmmw94jhsctdd9hx2eqpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65wpg30lr npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Ann Pettifor Debt and Crisis Views, Examined — a political economist who called the last crisis more than a year early says the next one is building in private credit: examined for where she is right, where she refines the series, and where the record disagrees. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/b7a9943b-2034-450f-b869-1e9afb080af6 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq4kzmnw94cx2ar5d9nx7u3dv3jkyapdv9hxgttrwf5hx6tn94mxjethwvkk27rpd45kuetyqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqzyr8c6ewfz85jtegysezdgc7hhfxs30t4v2vva8jlrgvn3gn65zhw7qcyqqq823csxpy2v npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Private Credit Market Explained — The lending market with no public prices, translated for the investor who knows equities and is meeting credit for the first time. Listen: https://www.wavlake.com/episode/64f3993a-56ba-4fc6-998d-50ccc3f9de16 — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qq3hg6r994c8y6tkv96x2ttrwfjkg6t594kkzuntv46z6etcwpkxz6twv4jqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gurgdfex npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Are We Living in a Simulation? — Musk's one-in-billions, the game designer's case, the laser-and-DMT researcher, and the fruit fly that never woke up, examined against the physics, the philosophy, and the world's oldest illusion stories. A graded verdict: which parts are real science, which are unfalsifiable bets, and why the religions and the technologists disagree. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/e2e8b735-ee53-4a38-8d1e-a8477459ac3d — Read: https://njump.me/naddr1qqwkzun994mk2ttvd9mxjmn8945kuttp94ekjmt4d3shg6t0dcq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28qdyxyj npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Aum and John 1:1 Compared — the syllable of the Upanishads and the Gospel's Word, each examined in its own world, and whether the two are the same: real parallels, opposite metaphysics, and an honest unknown. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/f486476a-d742-4f53-bf22-3762522c90fa — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqvkzatd94skuepddfhksm3dxyknzttrdakhqctjv4jqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gurujth2 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Ice Age Question — what the evidence really says about a lost civilization: Göbekli Tepe, the Taş Tepeler complex, the Younger Dryas impact debate, and a three-part verdict. No hyperbole. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/3823fa60-551c-411c-8f57-edc4c9a73f9a — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq28g6r9945kxefdv9nk2tt3w4jhxarfdahqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gudk22wu npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Indian Empire Through a Fiscal Lens — seven hundred years of the subcontinent's fiscal experiments: the Sultanate, Vijayanagara's gold, the Mughal revenue machine, the multipolar eighteenth century, and the colonial extraction — the fight over the history weighed on every side. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/26a0bccd-0cc5-4ae4-ad2b-e5ab4170ecfe — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqnhg6r9945kuerfv9hz6etdwp5hyefdw358ymm4va5z6cfdve5hxcmpdskkcetwwvq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28ufjt7u npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Ancient Egypt and Modern China, an Unexpected Fiscal Similarity — Egypt and China compared: debt held locally, no market for it, and what that structural parallel means for China's future. The answer: structurally Egypt, politically Soviet, realistically Japan. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/bc018a17-df90-4c15-83a1-5777887f1f23 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqlxzmnrd9jkuapdv4nhjur594skuepdd4hkgetjdckkx6rfdesj6ctw946kuetcwpjkxar9vskkv6tnvdskcttnd9kkjmrpwf5hg7gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65w7h33p7 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives America versus China: Lessons from History — the closest comparable cases in history, scored against the present: the realist school, Beijing's own Thucydides moment, and the middle of the world weighed in alongside the mainstream. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/b75ac4c6-24e2-4bd5-85fc-876491496a86 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq5kzmt9wf5kxcfdwejhyum4wvkkx6rfdesj6mr9wdek7mnn94n8ymmd945xjum5dae8jqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rsqnqmnv npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Fourth Turning and the Debt Supercycle — the Fourth Turning meets fiscal dominance: can the generational clock be married to the debt supercycle, and is there a correlation? Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/09ff7d51-647d-4103-9ddd-1acec6aad340 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq48g6r994nx7atjw35z6ar4wfhxjmn894skuepdw35x2ttyv438gttnw4cx2unr093kcegpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65w6yjplq npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Stages of Fiscal Dominance — the disease named and staged: the hidden tools, the market's revenge, and two living empires on the same street — the diagnosis fight weighed on every side: the alarmists, the MMT counter-case, and the official sector. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/f1c562d6-83e6-4375-80aa-90c1b3c0603d — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq08g6r994ehgct8v4ej6mmx94nxjumrv9kz6er0d45kuctwvdjsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gu8hslga npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives When the Borrower Sets the Price — the long record of empires whose debts outgrew them, and the strange rise of the two assets with no issuer: two stories that are really one, weighed with every voice on every side. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/ae6d5971-fa03-40e8-95c4-3dc572b645e6 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqs8w6r9dckhg6r9943x7unjdamk2u3dwdjhguedw35x2ttswf5kxegpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcq3qe7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsxpqqqp65w8h7ppr npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Last Buyer of America's Debt — when the world stops wanting the debt, who is left to buy it? The wars, the bloc, the thinning foreign bid, and the gold the central banks are buying: the counter-thesis argued in full, and the correction the alarmists refuse. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/94a39798-881e-4b0c-ae46-34dfb2ef7d55 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq0hg6r994kxzum5943827t9wgkk7e3dv9kk2unfvdshxttyv438gqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rsfnjzdf npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Who Buys America's Debt: The Printer and the Borrower — the Fed creates the money that buys its bonds; the Treasury borrows the money that buys its bonds. The buyback program examined with every voice on every side — Bessent, Druckenmiller, Dalio and the fixed-income view weighed equally — and what each operation actually does to your money. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/20dc4fff-a983-48a0-8f16-c6c93b53263f — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqehw6r0943827tn94sk6etjd93kzuedv3jkyapdw35x2ttswf5kuar9wgkkzmny946xsefdvfhhyun0wajhyqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46qzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqygx034jujy0fyhjsfpjy633a0wjdpz7h2c5ce6097xse8z384g9waupsgqqqw4rsjfuf3f npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives #nevent1q…de8g npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Bond Thesis, Examined — Nik Bhatia's bond-market views, stated fairly and tested against the record: the buybacks, the bills plug, lower rates, and who breaks first. Where he's right, where the 1951 Accord reads backwards, and the markers that decide it. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/645dc4fd-eaa1-459c-9ce8-abe762d72a25 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqv8g6r9943x7mny946xsetnd9ej6etcv9kkjmn9vsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28ashpsu npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Bond Market Explained — Treasuries, JGBs and Bunds: how the world's three anchor markets work and lean on each other, and what their history predicts — from the 1940s peg to Black Wednesday to the end of Japan's 30-year experiment. Three debtors: one owes the world, one owes itself, one owes everyone but can't print. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/476b8865-c018-4ff4-bf06-f11f6e28708d — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqvhg6r9943x7mny94kkzuntv46z6etcwpkxz6twv4jqz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gugwctv9 npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Endurance Contest — which empire lasts longer without breaking, the United States or China? The first pass said sixty-forty to America; run the same ledgers through the sources the other side trusts — Tehran, Beijing and Moscow, Mearsheimer, Sachs, the dissident press — and the verdict moves closer to even: Iran a confirmed strategic defeat, Ukraine a probable loss, the dollar's weaponization feeding its own erosion, and a China-collapse narrative with thirty years of failed predictions behind it. The honest answer is a coin flip, with the largest outcome neither empire breaking first — both eroding while the multipolar middle collects. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/6d91005d-24eb-4b09-88a7-b4d129c6be20 — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qq38g6r994jkuer4wfskucm9943k7mn5v4ehgttjv43k7mnnd9jx2un9vsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqgsvlrt9eyg7jf09qjryf4rr67ay6z9aw43f3n57tudpjw9z02s2amcrqsqqqa28v54u0y npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Sovereign Debt Crisis — a rollover crisis is never about the size of the pile, it is about who is willing to buy the debt tomorrow. The great defaults from 1789 to the sterling crisis, the buyer base behind the forty trillion, and where America and China sit on the scale — MMT, the Austrians and the Global South weighed against the establishment. Listen: https://wavlake.com/episode/471325e9-f8a5-44d2-b9f1-93869846695f — Read: https://yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qqvhg6r994ek7an9wfjkjemw94jx2cn5943hy6tnd9esz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dspzpnudvhy3r6f9u5zgv3x5v0tm5nggh46k9xxwne035xfc5fa2pth0qvzqqqr4gu8fdx4z npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives How Egypt Lasted Three Thousand Years is live. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives How Rome Lasted So Long is live. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Fiscal Dominance and the End of Empire — the episode, and now the essay. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives Fiscal Dominance and the End of Empire — the second DeepDives episode. npub1e7xktjg3ayj72pyxgn2x84a6f5yt6atznr8fuhc6ryu2y74q4mhsgvc52d deepdives The Great Debasement Trade is live.
