Implied News

Truth in Price

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Last Notes

2026-11-12 17:27:19 GMT

US-Iran effective ceasefire by November 22
51% chance, down 12 pts in the last hour (was 64%)
https://implied.news/p/6831495

2026-11-12 05:57:21 GMT

Mike Johnson announces departure as U.S. Representative before Jan 1, 2027
44% chance, down 24 pts in 6 hours (was 68%)
https://implied.news/k/kxmjohnsonannounceout-26nov

2026-11-12 03:12:24 GMT

Anthropic IPO valuation between $1.50T and $1.75T
63% chance, up 22 pts in 6 hours (was 40%)
https://implied.news/p/3721704

2026-11-11 03:27:20 GMT

Hegseth announces departure as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027
15% chance, down 23 pts in 6 hours (was 38%)
https://implied.news/k/kxhegsethannounceout-26apr

2026-11-11 03:12:23 GMT

No House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by Dec 31
97% chance, up 75 pts in 6 hours (was 22%)
https://implied.news/p/6764593

2026-11-10 20:12:19 GMT

CPI rises more than -0.1% in November 2026
79% chance, up 21 pts in 6 hours (was 58%)
Latest: CPI up 0.4% in October, 4.1% over the past year (BLS)
https://implied.news/k/kxcpi-26nov

2026-11-09 04:42:11 GMT

Anthropic raises $65B-$75B in its IPO
21% chance, down 16 pts in 6 hours (was 36%)
https://implied.news/p/6267653

2026-11-09 04:32:11 GMT

Trump speaks to Lula by November 30
65% chance, up 9 pts in the last hour (was 56%)
https://implied.news/p/6440148

2026-11-08 23:02:11 GMT

National Popular Vote Compact implemented before 2028 election
42% chance, up 10 pts in the last hour (was 31%)
https://implied.news/p/6761124

2026-11-08 22:47:48 GMT

Ocasio-Cortez runs for President in 2028
58% chance, up 10 pts in the last hour (was 48%)
https://implied.news/p/3708350

2026-11-08 21:52:09 GMT

Government shutdown by December 31
51% chance, up 10 pts in the last hour (was 41%)
https://implied.news/p/6364437

2026-11-08 20:17:09 GMT

Loeffler leaves Small Business Administration before 2027
20% chance, down 16 pts in 6 hours (was 36%)
https://implied.news/k/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31

2026-11-08 20:02:45 GMT

UK annual inflation between 4.0% and 4.2% in October
28% chance, up 20 pts in 6 hours (was 8%)
https://implied.news/p/6612512

2026-11-08 19:27:10 GMT

US-Iran effective ceasefire by November 30
55% chance, down 8 pts in the last hour (was 62%)
https://implied.news/p/6831496

2026-11-08 17:30:27 GMT

Anthropic raises between $75B and $85B in IPO
22% chance, up 16 pts in 6 hours (was 6%)
https://implied.news/p/6267654

2026-11-08 17:19:53 GMT

Hegseth announces departure as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027
55% chance, up 12 pts in 6 hours (was 43%)
https://implied.news/k/kxhegsethannounceout-26apr

2026-11-08 15:05:23 GMT

No next Meta Muse Spark model release by Nov 30, 2026
52% chance, down 21 pts in 6 hours (was 74%)
https://implied.news/p/6655565

2026-11-08 09:50:23 GMT

Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 be above 4.5%?
33% chance, down 22 pts in 6 hours (was 55%)
Latest: Unemployment 4.1% in October (BLS)
https://implied.news/k/kxu3eoy-27jan08

2026-11-08 09:35:26 GMT

US-Iran effective ceasefire by November 22
42% chance, down 10 pts in the last hour (was 52%)
https://implied.news/p/6831495

2026-11-08 09:20:24 GMT

Trump issues 25-29 vetoes by end of 2027
17% chance, up 13 pts in the last hour (was 4%)
https://implied.news/p/6661898

2026-11-08 09:10:17 GMT

Anthropic IPO valuation below $1.25T
22% chance, up 11 pts in the last hour (was 11%)
https://implied.news/p/3721700

2026-11-06 06:40:34 GMT

Gharibabadi attends US-Iran diplomatic meeting by end of 2026
26% chance, down 13 pts in the last hour (was 40%)
https://implied.news/p/3553891

2026-11-04 12:31:55 GMT

Republican Hurd wins CO-3 House race
94% chance, up 62 pts in 6 hours (was 32%)
https://implied.news/k/houseco3-26

2026-10-28 09:05:17 GMT

James Comer is Republican nominee for Kentucky Governor
64% chance, down 20 pts in 6 hours (was 84%)
https://implied.news/p/5790715

2026-10-25 13:09:44 GMT

Implied News — Morning edition, Sun Oct 25
Trump weighs Iran strike or deal as war fears spike
• Trump weighs Iran strike or deal as war fears spike — US invades Iran by '27 20%
• Democrats lead in four key Pennsylvania House races — Democrats win House 91%
• Justice Dept. intervenes in Alaska election certification — Dem wins AK Senate 76%
https://implied.news/?ed=20261025am

2026-10-25 11:41:50 GMT

Student List – Students Win wins most seats in 2026 Serbian election
46% chance, up 20 pts in 6 hours (was 26%)
https://implied.news/p/4824602

2026-10-25 11:26:53 GMT

Tesla or SpaceX announces binding merger deal before May 1, 2027
58% chance, down 13 pts in 6 hours (was 71%)
https://implied.news/k/kxcompanyactionmerger-27

2026-10-25 11:15:41 GMT

Israel takes military action against Syria by Nov 30, 2026
42% chance, up 18 pts in 6 hours (was 24%)
https://implied.news/p/5162764

2026-10-24 10:44:48 GMT

Core PCE inflation rate above 0.2% in September 2026
80% chance, down 10 pts in the last hour (was 90%)
Latest: PCE prices up 0.3% in August, 3.4% over the past year (BEA)
https://implied.news/k/kxpcecore-26sep

2026-10-23 01:53:31 GMT

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026
60% chance, down 12 pts in the last hour (was 73%)
https://implied.news/p/2591184

2026-10-22 13:53:37 GMT

GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026
72% chance, up 21 pts in 6 hours (was 50%)
https://implied.news/p/5167253

2026-10-22 05:33:37 GMT

Abbott margin minus Paxton margin is 0-3 points on Nov 3, 2026
14% chance, down 23 pts in 6 hours (was 37%)
https://implied.news/k/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29

2026-10-21 20:08:42 GMT

Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through November 30
46% chance, down 9 pts in the last hour (was 55%)
https://implied.news/p/3902370

2026-10-21 13:38:37 GMT

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026
50% chance, up 18 pts in the last hour (was 32%)
https://implied.news/p/4118938

2026-10-21 04:48:35 GMT

December 2027 CPI-U 12-month change is above 4.0%
20% chance, up 14 pts in 6 hours (was 6%)
Latest: CPI up 0.6% in September, 4.0% over the past year (BLS)
https://implied.news/k/kxuscpiyear-28feb01

2026-10-19 10:19:51 GMT

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31
Odds 48% → 30% -18 pts in 1h · $518
https://implied.news/p/3206980