James Lavish

Ingested from X: https://x.com/jameslavish
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CFA | Co-Managing Partner of Bitcoin Opportunity Fund | Board Director of Strive (NASDAQ: ASST) | Author of 💡The Informationist Newsletter

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npub1ghwshe2vs4rhj8lne4ypaf9h5l69g4cvde8ufcxmycwea6pjlydq0u538p

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nprofile1qqsythgtu4xg23merleu6jq75jm60az52uxxun7yurdjv8v7aqe0jxspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsszzmjp

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npub1ghwshe2vs4rhj8lne4ypaf9h5l69g4cvde8ufcxmycwea6pjlydq0u538p

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Last Notes

2026-10-20 19:35:00 GMT

Repost @briteresi:
Big banks violate sanctions, pay a fine, and move on. Meanwhile, many people who have invested in Bitcoin have been debanked.
@Jameslavish
shares how investors in his Bitcoin fund had wire transfers rejected, and two were actually debanked.
“The currency of choice for criminals is the US dollar, and the way to do it is through banks.”
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2112628127092666368/vid/avc1/1920x1080/bowJGj2_Vq0A9THH.mp4?tag=29
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2112351344875212800/vid/avc1/1920x1080/IlvbJb09IsJGrh8j.mp4?tag=29

2026-10-18 23:52:00 GMT

Good evening.
Buckle in for Bitcoin.
And have a great night.

2026-10-18 00:37:00 GMT

Repost @TEXASOL61:
Fourth-and-1 at midfield today. Fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter. We got stopped both times, and Florida scored a touchdown after each one.
Coach Sark,
I played for Texas. I was a team captain and an All-American on the Forty Acres. I love this program, so writing this hurts. I'm only doing it because I think one thing is holding us back, and I'd rather say it to you straight than keep yelling at my TV.
Please hand the play sheet to someone else.
You've done a lot for this place. Two straight playoff semifinals and an SEC title game in our first year. Texas matters again because of you, and I'm grateful. I'm not calling for your job. Not even close.
But look at the big moments. Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, first-and-goal at the 1, and we walked away with nothing. Ohio State again last year, fourth-and-goal from inches, we stayed in a speed package and got stuffed. You said yourself you'd probably sub if you could do it over.
Last week against OU it was third-and-1 at our own 45 and we threw a little pass to the back that lost 2. Tied 24-24, two minutes left, fourth-and-2 at their 35, we sent out the kicker for a 53-yarder. Today you called the fourth-down run "not very good design."
I went back through the official play-by-play. In our two losses this year we converted 4 of 11 third and fourth downs with two yards or less to go.
That's not all on the line or the backs. Nobody is getting push right now. We're running for about 3.6 a carry. That's exactly why this offense needs a coach whose whole week is the offense. Your job never stops. Recruiting, the portal, NIL, a 100-plus man roster. That's a full-time job by itself.
History backs this up. The last head coach to win a national title calling his own offensive plays was Jimbo Fisher, in the 2013 season. No champion in the playoff era has done it. Ryan Day gave the calls to Chip Kelly in 2024 and won it all. You won a ring at Alabama calling plays for Coach Saban.
You already have Kyle Flood with the coordinator title. Let him call it, or bring in someone you trust. Then you get to be the head coach on fourth-and-1, seeing the whole field.
This is the school that ran the wishbone to titles in '69 and '70. Earl Campbell ran for 1,744 yards in '77. Ricky Williams left with 6,279. We know who we're supposed to be. And our defense is holding teams under 3 yards a carry. We can win with that.
After OU you said "not a chance" about giving up the calls. I'm asking you to think about it one more time. For the players.
Hook 'em.
Texas fans, if you agree, please repost and tag
@CoachSark
.
#HookEm

2026-10-17 19:06:00 GMT

If Texas loses this game to Florida, it will force the conversation about Sarkasian hiring an offensive coordinator.

2026-10-16 19:03:00 GMT

I respectfully, and vehemently disagree.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUxSP_aXwAE6Z3o.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-15 21:45:00 GMT

Good evening.
MSTR does not need MSCI.
Have a great night.

2026-10-15 14:56:00 GMT

Bitcoin is a beach ball.

2026-10-14 14:02:00 GMT

Repost @TXWestCapital:
Hiking rates will likely be the kneejerk response, if CPI remains elevated, so that it looks like they're doing something. Even if that "something" can't actually accomplish the sole reason for it being done.

2026-10-14 13:57:00 GMT

Good morning.
This morning's surprise CPI suggests surging energy costs are the main driver of higher prices of virtually all goods and services. Unfortunately for the Fed, they cannot print oil and higher rates will not bring down the price of gas.
Have a great day.

2026-10-13 15:51:00 GMT

The more you learn about bitcoin, the more disappointed you will be with the monetary system and the more confident and secure you will feel about your personal financial future.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUdanoSbsAAvnnU.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-13 00:06:00 GMT

Repost @BitcoinNewsCom:
THE BOND APOCALYPSE APPROACHES
@jameslavish
warns that governments are entering a debt death spiral, forced to borrow increasingly more money just to pay interest on their existing debt.
As investors grow reluctant to buy long-term government bonds, pressure on central banks to print more money intensifies.
Full episode:
http://piped.video/lJASG8tCiFU
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2109797090301767680/vid/avc1/1080x1920/azdk8lcaZsl_n4eE.mp4?tag=29

2026-10-11 18:48:00 GMT

You’ve likely been hearing the term “fiscal dominance” in the news or on social media lately. If you are wondering what it means and how it affects the average US tax payer, I wrote all about it in simple to understand terms right here, this morning. You can find the full free article right here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/jameslavish/p/what-is-fiscal-dominance?r=8di03

2026-10-09 16:57:00 GMT

Good morning.
Went to the Knights game last night and Leafs scored 3 goals in the first 8 minutes. Anyway, Knights won 4-3. Lesson in that.
Have a great day.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2108432298031128576/vid/avc1/1080x1350/ig2IeJSae3q3alcn.mp4?tag=29
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2108432305421447168/vid/avc1/1080x1350/uQdlLRjHz6P0smVV.mp4?tag=29

2026-10-09 13:24:00 GMT

Repost @Julie8409674864:
Inflation is particularly insidious because most people don't understand the mechanics that cause it (by and large, money printing).
It de facto winds up being the most regressive tax out there, hurting the poorest the most.

2026-10-09 04:06:00 GMT

I would say that inflation is the primary reason most people struggle, the silent tax.

2026-10-07 02:36:00 GMT

I repeat: using leverage to trade a volatile asset while pledging the same volatile asset as collateral is a good way to lose that asset.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT_jpHIW8AAZ6MD.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-06 13:44:00 GMT

Repost @unchained:
Some of the most paranoid bitcoiners on earth used Coldcards. But for 5 years, their keys were quietly vulnerable.
Meanwhile, ~$1B was lost to hacks in just the last few months.
Total sovereignty vs. custodians is the wrong question. 🪙
Today at 11AM:
https://app.livestorm.co/unchained/online-event-custody-cant-be-a-coin-flip/live

2026-10-06 12:34:00 GMT

Repost @ColeMacro:
The Bitcoin treasury model has evolved. Last cycle, mNAV & common equity issuance drove the engine. That will not be the MAIN driver of returns this cycle.
Strive believes having & maintaining a high Amplification Ratio is THE engine & we want more Horse Power.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2107263154602299392/vid/avc1/1920x1080/0KD1vxOG3M7iIAUB.mp4?tag=29

2026-10-05 21:59:00 GMT

If you are wondering what state of the fiat experiment we are at, it's the one where they are saying the quiet part out-loudly and proudly in a last ditch effort to normalize the only escape route the government is willing to take.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTor2RmW4AAzei9.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-03 17:21:00 GMT

Repost @ColeMacro:
IMPORTANT POST
Our industry became too focused on protecting downside risk and inadequately focused on maximizing Total Returns to the upside.
In my view, the entire purpose of our structured finance business model must be to maximize Total Returns for common equity shareholders. Our industry needs more amplification. Even at Strive, where we have the highest Amplification Ratio among Digital Credit issuers, when I look at the risk embedded in our capital structure relative to our amplification, I believe we have room to take it up another notch or two.
Building a rocket ship is extraordinarily difficult and requires underwriting and taking real risk. The mission requires not blowing up, but you need an engine powerful enough to reach the moon. Based on Amplification Ratio alone, I view the risk of true issuer failure from over-amplification as very low across our industry today. Amplification Ratio obviously cannot capture every risk, including debt terms, covenants, maturity walls, liquidity constraints, and other structural risks. But controlling for those risks should give issuers significant confidence to take amplification materially higher. That is exactly what we have done at Strive, and I hope others increasingly copy it.
I’ve written extensively about why Amplification Ratio will be the single most important driver of outright and relative Total Returns in a Bitcoin bull market. However, I believe incentives naturally push toward under-amplification, modest Bitcoin outperformance, and the safest possible path. My goal with this post is to light a fire and push our industry to think bigger, focus more aggressively on growth and Total Returns, and push the frontier of what our business models can achieve.
We have a shared mission across the industry to grow Digital Credit from a nascent asset class into a massive global capital market. That requires trusted issuers, deep liquidity, disciplined execution, and investor confidence. That is where we all should work together, but make no mistake about what will crown the fastest horse in a Bitcoin bull market: the engine.
Our mandate at Strive is to build the thing we actually want to own and recruit and retain exceptionally talented people who desire that risk and return opportunity and understand the business model that needs to be built. That mindset drove our execution in building a high Amplification Ratio, helped create strong liquidity, and is also why we are not satisfied with where we are. With Bitcoin under $100,000, our desire is to take Amplification Ratio higher from here.
If the Bitcoin bull thesis is right, amplification will be the most important thing. If the Bitcoin thesis is wrong, a few hundred basis points of cost of capital won’t be the difference between success and failure. The model itself will have failed.
I love capitalism. I love competition. I want more competition for the fastest horse. The next 10–15 years will be the Digital Gold Rush for Bitcoin.
Let’s act like it.

2026-10-03 02:12:00 GMT

Good evening.
If you were selling gold and bitcoin today, it will prove to have been a massive mistake.
Have a great night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTpeDM-WMAAH1aY.png?name=orig

2026-10-02 14:09:00 GMT

And just like that, it appears the newest Fed Chair has already made a policy error.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HToZV76bgAAPOjV.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-30 18:40:00 GMT

Good morning.
Since the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has been exploding higher, let's check in on the 30-year, see if it's doing any bett—
Anyway, have a great day.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTfD5rcacAAKys7.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-30 15:20:00 GMT

Two days ago, Fed Funds futures priced the odds of an October Fed hike at over 70%. But with new methodology and a weaker core PCE reading, odds have dropped to just about 1 in 3 now.
"All the world's a stage..."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTeVw1_agAAdAII.png?name=orig

2026-09-30 04:09:00 GMT

Buildup was lit.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTb9BofbYAAmII4.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-30 03:25:00 GMT

Hockey season is underway in Las Vegas. Go Knights.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTbrCbKbIAAVoNL.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-30 02:52:00 GMT

Hockey is underway in Las Vegas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTbrCbKbIAAVoNL.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-30 01:30:00 GMT

Good evening.
Hundreds of millions of people are going to wish they had considered and studied bitcoin instead of simply dismissing it.
Have a great night.

2026-09-29 21:14:00 GMT

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “I am the house now.”
The house:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTad_c6b0AAGswc.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-29 15:26:00 GMT

Good morning.
If you are a long-term buyer of gold and bitcoin, this is the chart you should be focused on.
Have a great day.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTZOQo7XAAAm5tK.jpg?name=orig

2026-09-28 17:07:00 GMT

Fed Chair Warsh: "The Fed's role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed."
The Fed:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTUbujGacAAuCYA.png?name=orig

2026-09-28 15:23:00 GMT

Honored to be in this company on Substack after a strong weekend. A sincere thank you to all my readers!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTUDymdbMAApB6T.jpg?name=orig