Willy Woo

Ingested from X: https://x.com/willywoo
Followers on X: 1.23M
⚡ Zaps go to the mirror operator

#Bitcoinclass of 2013... onchain data, market structure, research since 2016. I only post here, all other channels especially Telegram are scams.

Public Key

npub1gr0y5wsfwsa4xyn6xaeza2gksgfh84elzt7ack7m6h8qhvtghjhq9c24jm

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsyphj28gyhgw6nzfarwu3w4ytgyymn6ul39lwut0datnstk95tetspzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejsj2258y

Publishing to

nostr.wine

Author Public Key

npub1gr0y5wsfwsa4xyn6xaeza2gksgfh84elzt7ack7m6h8qhvtghjhq9c24jm

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Last Notes

2026-10-25 02:28:00 GMT

↪ Replying to @ColinTCrypto

2026-10-25 00:10:00 GMT

Peter is immensely valuable to the BTC community as a counter signal.
This post alone gives odds of BTC bouncing off 80k at 70%.

2026-10-25 00:01:00 GMT

Anyone saying BTC goes to zero on Q-Day demonstrates they know nothing about BTC.
It’ll be a buying opportunity of a lifetime taking the other side of the trade.

2026-10-18 00:53:00 GMT

I personally think bears waiting for a lower bottom are on the wrong side of the trade.
Capital flowing in/out of BTC bottomed August 9th 2026.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU38On9a0AABJ8X.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-17 12:30:00 GMT

I waited a year to post this chart, so posting it again.
% of Google Searches vs Bitcoin's Price
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUxoBtkbUAA02HK.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-17 10:57:00 GMT

Extreme Fear seems pretty healthy for stocks on the backtrace.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUygQmwbMAAtwbA.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-16 23:22:00 GMT

Dear Fidelity, if you're looking for bottoms, you're never gonna find it when searching for a bullish narrative.
2026 : Strategy Treasury FUD, Quantum
2022 : FTX implosion
2018 : BCH split, Hash Wars
2014 : Mt Gox implosion
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUyPjcKXgAAT_gl.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-16 19:54:00 GMT

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUxruBAaEAA8grD.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-16 19:07:00 GMT

JUST IN: Bloomberg Intelligence demonstrates it needs renaming.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUxSP_aXwAE6Z3o.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-16 02:45:00 GMT

The last time this setup happened was 2014 when BTC blew off after the MtGox collapse while stocks climbed higher. Then BTC did a slow grind upwards while stocks entered a bear market.
When stocks aligned bullish we had the famous 2017 bull market.

2026-10-16 02:45:00 GMT

BTC should be resilient against stock market pull backs given its already retraced 50% while equities was busy putting in new highs.

2026-10-15 23:57:00 GMT

Timing matters
Software disruption: Saas-pocolapyse was 2026
AI commoditisation: Right now?
BTC Quantum dumped: 5-15 years away
Gold Asteroidisation: 15-30 years away
Cashflation: Always

2026-10-15 23:36:00 GMT

All you guys saying “nobody uses Google anymore” don’t understand how the Trends metrics work. It’s a % of total Google searches so a drop in Google use doesn’t impact the trend score.

2026-10-15 12:16:00 GMT

The best time to buy BTC is when nobody is interested in it.
The best time to sell BTC is when everybody is engaged.
CHART: Google searches for BTCUSD and Bitcoin
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUok2bQbEAAyDmk.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-13 12:05:00 GMT

"SUPERCYCLE" is just another way to say BTC breaks out of 4 yr cycles and follows global macro markets.
No asset in history has followed a programmatic clock except BTC.
BTC's supply shock is now TOO SMALL to make a difference.
→ BTC follows global macro here on in.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUdanoSbsAAvnnU.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-12 03:54:00 GMT

Puell Multiple roughly gauges miner sell pressure.
Here's what it's suggesting...
Long range structure: Early bull market
Local structure: Sideways grind
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUZr25vacAAEjxu.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-11 21:19:00 GMT

Opus 5.5 puts BTC signatures breaking in the next 2 years from quantum or classical maths at…
Quantum: 0.5%
Classical/AI: 0.8%
->1.3% total risk
FLIPSIDE: survey of analyst expectation is for BTC to return >200%

2026-10-10 19:45:00 GMT

Bitcoin, class of…

2026-10-09 20:28:00 GMT

People misunderstand the Quantum + SI FUD
It's not that BTC could fail, it WON'T
It's a price downward volatility event
1.7M BTC of lost coins CANNOT be moved to safe addresses
They will eventually be resurrected and the market will reprice this.

2026-10-09 20:28:00 GMT

I'd give it 25% chance the 1.7M Satoshi Era lost coins get frozen by a future soft fork.
If an entity like Google cracks those coins first, under US law, they remain in zombie land, unable to be spent as Google has no legal title. The market would still price in the fear.

2026-10-08 22:22:00 GMT

Good data here showing which exchanges and entities have their public keys exposed which is relevant to Quantum and SI Classical Maths attack risks which is expected to climb in the coming years.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUGpkGBWsAAqGUA.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-08 19:58:00 GMT

There’s 2 types of “taxes” governments use to plug deficits.
1) Tax on income and
2) property confiscation
Confiscation has 2 types:
- Debasement which hits the poor who save in cash and do not own assets
- Wealth taxes which targets the rich who don’t own money, they own the means of production
The former makes the poor poorer and leads to civil war and revolution
The latter destroys the means of production, the economy collapses and the country fails

2026-10-07 22:49:00 GMT

This song still gives me the feels everytime.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2106094390955397120/vid/avc1/1920x1080/L_79FpK2lwxOSIO2.mp4?tag=29

2026-10-06 23:20:00 GMT

↪ Replying to @MC4H2
Repost @willywoo:
If I give you a price target I'll make a sucker out of you and me.
I'll be wrong because the tops are highly chaotic in nature.
You'll be influenced by it, maybe you'd even make a sell decision based on this random number in the future.
REALITY:
Finding tops is akin to forecasting the weather: clouds form, skies darken, then comes the storm. Someone 2 years out can never predict WHEN and WHERE. It's easier to see it as it approaches. That's how seasoned investors make decisions.
6 years ago I read out a moving number from a model for the upper expected bound for price at any moment, that number got copied across the press and misrepresented. 6 years later people still say I was wrong... likely they remember after 6 years because they made an investment decision based that number. I was a sucker for reading out that number, they were suckers for making an investment decision on that number.

2026-10-06 21:30:00 GMT

LOAD UP THE TRUCK when downward momentum has eased and there's debate whether the bottom is in (early bull)
SELL GRADUALLY when "up only" is the narrative (mid-late phase bull).
This is because tops are volatile, marked by random speculative moves... while bottoms are more clearly defined by real investor capital.

2026-10-06 13:53:00 GMT

Repost @SullyMichaelvan:
I’m going to be brutally honest here.
A part of me didn’t want to publish any of this.
I’ve been asked repeatedly to use some of this sentiment data to trade, and I’ve often urged people not to. I’m a long-term HODLer myself, and I've seen how painful it can be to try to time your Bitcoin buys.
But I find myself in an interesting position.
Because some of the sentiment data I’ve been sitting on has been extremely high-signal. Historically, buying during low readings has produced stronger returns than buying during high readings.
That’s a big claim.
So it deserves scrutiny.
But the longer I’ve spent with this data, the more confident I've become that I’m sitting on something valuable. So today I’m going to share the strongest (though slightly counterintuitive) signal I’ve found so far.
Not greed.
Not fear.
Desire.
How badly the crowd WANTS Bitcoin to pay off.
I’ve tracked tons of different emotions in Bitcoiners’ language, using data spanning most of the past decade. I've learned a lot and seen many positive correlations, but this one stood out above all others.
I’ve talked about desire before.
But today, I want to show you what Bitcoin’s returns looked like after the highest and lowest readings historically, and why that matters for Bitcoin today.
https://sentimentsully.substack.com/p/the-hidden-bullish-signal
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT872ysWQAAPrJH.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-06 06:27:00 GMT

“Be your own bank” is BS
When you put money in a bank the bank takes legal title of your money.
What you get is a claim on a debt that the bank owes you… assuming it remains solvent.
That’s NOT what happens when you self custody BTC.

2026-10-05 05:34:00 GMT

Little known fact...
BTC popularity among nation-states has outstripped individuals:
5% of the world population own BTC
8% of nations have a policy to acquire/hold BTC
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT14wx-a8AAq5U3.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-05 05:34:00 GMT

Here's the individual nation-states and their adoption policy.
Note 12% of nations actually own BTC, 8% of them have policy decisions to acquire and hold.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT1_pUQbkAARA3W.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-04 19:04:00 GMT

↪ Replying to @zerohedge
Q-DAY:
It isn’t about whether BTC is quantum hardened in time.
It’s WHEN do we see the 1.7M BTC of vulnerable lost coins making their way back onto the market.
It’s a downward repricing event.
BTC will survive. I’d buy that dip.

2026-10-04 10:00:00 GMT

Just to demonstrate the insane gains of BTC against various funds... exclusive to the "qualified rich"...
Here's BTC vs
@chamath
's Social+Capital Fund.
(Not to fade Chamath. Pitched to him once, have followed him for a long time from my startup days before BTC.)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTxu31RaAAAw1h-.png?name=orig
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTuBF2xakAE66Ty.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-02 02:31:00 GMT

Little known fact:
BTC has NEVER been beaten by stocks over a 4 year investment duration. Even if you bought the top.
In fact, at 42% CAGR, BTC beats the undisputed champion of hedge funds, Renaissance Technologies, who delivered 39% to their investors.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTl3r1taMAEqsPj.jpg?name=orig

2026-10-01 22:57:00 GMT

Plenty of buys below price action, not many sells above
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTj9fc4bYAADPAm.jpg?name=orig