Aging geek.
Public Key
npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Profile Code
nprofile1qqst48w6d84qlf5q2q9yu9860l6qu6a9mh55fx4dcyt43lu78ddfx5spz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsd3j6fy
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Published at
2026-10-25T02:09:38Z Event JSON
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"content": "{\"name\":\"Tom\",\"about\":\"Aging geek. \\nLefty on a line somewhere between Anarco Syndicalism and Nordic Social Democracy.\\n\\nExcited by clean energy, ecology, biodiversity and wilding.\\n\\nDesperately trying to hang onto some nuance in a world of microblogging.\\n\\nHe/Him\",\"website\":\"https://mastodon.scot/@Tallish_Tom\",\"picture\":\"https://media.mastodon.scot/accounts/avatars/114/402/868/921/185/411/original/3ecf8a917b00a491.png\",\"banner\":\"https://media.mastodon.scot/accounts/headers/114/402/868/921/185/411/original/4d607e1fcb5e62d6.jpg\",\"nip05\":\"[email protected] \"}" ,
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Last Notes npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Alt text: npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Apart from Europe and California (thank you both for your early service) nearly every country that has adopted renewables has done so for energy access or energy security. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Underwhelming? Global EV sales growth of 20% YoY in 2025? npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Storage does have a long way to go OTOH it went from ~7 GW / ~11 GWh in 2018 to ~270 GW / ~617 GWh in the 7 years from 2018 - 2025 and that was while it was finding its feet. So its got the legs. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom The Irony is that Swedish home grown BWRs are some of the fastest to build reactors around. Partnering with Japan(?) & Sweden could build one in less than 10 years. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom What are the numbers here? Honest question, has there been an announcement or something? npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom @npub1nzf…lckw npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom @npub1nzf…lckw @npub1pnw…qhcz npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Yes the last 10% will be hard, yes we should probably consume less stuff, yes capitalism. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I know its techno optimism, but forgive me. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom https://38d.gs/eurovision-bbc-df npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Up to a point, Norway is a bit of a special case as it is totally self sufficient. But if Greek and Baltic windfarms want to fill in each other's gaps and Southern European solar wants to get to Denmark than Germany becomes the natural route for the interconnectors and others will pay soame of it. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom On a related note I am thoroughly enjoying npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom There are some interesting discussions going on about how the rest of the global south develops if China makes everything cheaper than everyone else (which seems to be their aim). npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom It is an inescapable fact that China has scaled its electro tech output to the level where, if everyone took advantage of it the energy transition could massively accelerate. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Where did the community broadband resistance come from? I do not know this story. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom China (actually, I am not sure on the nuclear number, found it hard to find progress figures). npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I think these numbers are approximately correct for 2025: npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Listening to an economist/trader yesterday. Said the first signal that the collapse is getting close is when "respectable" institutions start saying that the "fundamentals have changed" and "this new technology has actually changed the economic rules". npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom "Trump (a man who never met a grievance that was too petty to pursue) orders Tim Cook (a man who never found a boot he wouldn't lick)" npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom To paraphrase Upton Sinclair: "It’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his _astronomical future income_ depends on his not understanding it." npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom UK has used CfDs for renewables and nuclear for over 10 years. What's happened? npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I'll bite. I don't think it can be done if we continue to practice the capitalist model exported from the USA over the past 50 years. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I worry that many (most) companies have a significant number of senior leaders who have publicly committed enough emotional capital to AI already being a success that cognitive dissonance will lead them to double down when the data shows it is failing rather than course correcting. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom https://www.youtube.com/shorts/THHLR1wa8Qo npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom #LazyFedi npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Have you read or listened to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unaccountability_Machine ? It has an interesting take on Cybernetics and Stafford Beer's theories that grew out of it (including Chile's Cybersyn and Cybernetics vs neo-liberal economics) npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom C'mon its a totally bonkers headline that wasn't on anyone's 2025 Bingo card! npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom That makes sense. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I think your direction of travel is right but your timescale is a bit optimistic and the winner will probably be China in the medium term. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom It is worth a listen. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom We know how to build nuclear for a reasonable cost. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom I think a summary of the arguments are: npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom and storage, never forget the storage, it makes both baseload and intermitent sources dispatchable and more efficient. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Napkin math time (unchecked, I may be very wrong, feel free to mock me). npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom This is exciting: npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Nuclear is not inherently more dangerous than other forms of energy (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-from-energy-production-per-twh), it is certainly massively safer than coal or gas which have already killed millions) it simply needs different processes. Which we rarely invest in, which is part of the problem caused by that lack of stability. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom The primary killer of nuclear was not public opposition, it was cheap gas along with Regan and Thatcher’s anti-state rhetoric. Public opposition was a thing but if the economics had remained strong there would have been more effort to bring people along. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom It’s not inherently more expensive (just check South Korea’s costs). The neoliberal West is just very bad at stuff like this. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom This far from the equator #nuclear makes sense. It does not obviate the need for more #renewables and storage. A good faith “all of the above” _is_ possible. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Not sure what this really means for nuclear? I mean Susquehanna was commissioned in 1983 so it is not like it is new capacity. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom Hmm according to Reuters: "The global development bank, which lends at low rates to help countries build everything from flood barriers to railroads, decided in 2013 to stop funding nuclear power projects." npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom No longer an EU citizen 😟 npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom This is not violating patents and stealing industrial secrets its about reverse engineering. The DMCA effectively says "If I say this latch is a lock then it is illegal for you to open the hood of your car to fix it", US trading partners had to sign up to enforcing it locally if they wanted trade deals. npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom No, no, no. That would be chaos! npub1h2wa5602p7ngq5q2fc205ll5pe46th0fgjd2msghtrleuw66jdfqcaf0hs Tom While it would be a good thing, I don't think it will happen. Not until, say, a few BWRX-300 are actually operational elswhere.
