Lead Scientist Berkeley Earth. Physics PhD, data nerd, and cancer survivor. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, and air quality issues.
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2024-11-19T13:36:20Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde An important — but also surprising — study reports new climate estimates over the last 500 million years. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1us5…rsy0 npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For more information on weather conditions in June 2024 and the associated climate context, please review our monthly temperature update. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Official forecasts now expect a weak to moderate La Niña event will develop soon. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The El Niño event that has helped fuel record warmth during the last 12 months has now ended, and ocean temperatures have gradually cooled since the start of the year. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Anomalous warmth was widespread in June, including records for both the land and ocean average, and continent-average June records for Africa, Asia, and South America. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde June 2024 Temperature Update from Berkeley Earth npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Fun little map of the weather stations (both active and historical) that are used as input to Berkeley Earth's land surface temperature analysis. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The 12-month moving average of global mean temperatures has now moved slightly above 1.6 °C (2.9 °F). npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For more information on temperature conditions in February of 2024, please refer to our monthly temperature update. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The start of 2024 has been very warm. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The start of 2024 has been very warm. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The combination of El Niño in the Pacific, extraordinary warmth in the Atlantic, and man-made global warming has led global ocean average temperatures to set a new daily temperature record every day for the last year. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde A strong El Niño continued in February 2024, but it has begun to weaken and is expected to dissipate by mid-2024, possibly followed by a return of La Niña late in 2024. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The Atlantic Ocean set a record monthly-average for February by a very large margin. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The Atlantic Ocean set a record monthly-average for February by a very large margin. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Warmth was widespread in February 2024, with particularly large anomalies in North America, Europe, and the Arctic. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The global mean temperature in February 2024 was 1.76 ± 0.09 °C (3.17 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde February 2024 Temperature Update npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Most volcanic eruptions that are large enough to reach the stratosphere lead to a brief period bit of global cooling due to the impact of sulfur aerosols. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Two years later, the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still in no rush to dissipate. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde To read more about global and regional temperature conditions in January 2024, please visit our monthly temperature report: npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde January 2024 was the 8th consecutive record warm monthly average, and the 7th consecutive month averaging more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Berkeley Earth's Annual Climate Report was distributed to media late yesterday.[email protected] npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Berkeley Earth's Annual Temperature Report is expected to appear on January 12th.[email protected] . npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Berkeley Earth's Annual Temperature Report is expected to appear on January 12th.[email protected] . npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Variations in solar activity are an important and well-studied source of natural climate variability, contributing to a variety of past climate fluctuations. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Ongoing solar cycle number 25 is expected to peak in late 2024 or early 2025. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub197q…2t4z npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde In case anyone is wondering, it has dissipated a bit, but most of the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still there. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For more information on temperature patterns in November 2023, please refer to our monthly temperature report. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Climate negotiators often talk about limiting warming to no more than 1.5 °C above preindustrial. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Note: Different monitoring groups broadly give similar results, but differences in methodology affect uncertainties in the preindustrial baseline. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde With 11 months completed, 2023 is virtually certain to set a new annual average temperature record. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Man-made global warming largely sets the long-term trend, but abrupt recent warming is partly due to natural variability, including the transition to a strong El Niño. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Average temperatures over the last three months set a new September-November record high for 19% of the Earth's surface, including 32% of the land surface. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Looked at seasonally, the last three months have not only been the warmest September to November on record, but they are also the largest deviation from trend in at least 100 years. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde In November 2023, monthly temperature averages set new record highs in 12% of the Earth's surface, including large parts of South America, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde November 2023 saw broad warmth across most to the world, but was particularly notable in the Pacific, Central Asia, Northern Canada, North Africa, and South America. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Temperatures during last six months have run well above the previous records for this time of year. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Berkeley Earth November Temperature Update npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1n5k…rquc npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde This year's record-setting Canadian fires burned >3 times as much carbon as all of Canada's annual fossil fuel use. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The open water passage through the Arctic Ocean has closed again till next year. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1la4…y3aj npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1n5k…rquc npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For additional discussion and analysis related to the record-shattering temperatures in September, please refer to the Berkeley Earth temperature update. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For additional discussion and analysis related to the record-shattering temperatures in September, please refer to the Berkeley Earth temperature update. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde A single year above 1.5 °C would not automatically mean the that the IPCC's target to limit warming to 1.5 °C has failed, as those targets are based on long-term averages. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde A single year above 1.5 °C would not automatically mean the that the IPCC's target to limit warming to 1.5 °C has failed, as those targets are based on long-term averages. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Given the warmth of recent months, and the current El Niño, 2023 is now virtually certain (>99% likelihood) to become the warmest year ever directly measured. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The abrupt warming in September – due primarily to Antarctica – came on top of already extraordinary warmth in August. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The strong warming in Antarctica this September could simply be a product of natural variability. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The sharp uptick in temperatures since August is mostly due to warming in polar regions, especially Antartica. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde 15.7% of the Earth's surface experienced their locally warmest September average, including 21.7% of land areas. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Both land and ocean individually set temperature records for September, with a well-developed El Niño, and almost no regions of relative cooling. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Given the highly unlikely nature of this abrupt record, it suggests that models may not be fully representing recent climate changes. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde September breaking the monthly global temperature record by 0.50 °C (0.90 °F) is unprecedented and highly unlikely. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C (3.28 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, continuing the run of extraordinary records. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde September 2023 Temperature Update 🔥 npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The Earth right now is far warmer than the previously measured record for this time of year. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Many other parts of South and Central America were also setting new record highs during recent months, influenced by both the developing El Niño in the Pacific and the extreme warmth in the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde This year's El Niño launched with incredible intensity on the coast of South America. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1knz…c73p npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub1kk5…e0ds npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde @npub19dl…hwzh npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde For more information on temperature patterns during August 2023, please see our monthly temperature report: npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde This current period of record warmth is driven by a combination of man-made & natural factors. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde The recent extreme conditions have led to another upward revision to our forecast for 2023. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde With the strengthening El Niño and June, July, and August all setting new monthly records by large margins, it has become nearly certain that the annual average for 2023 will set a new record high for the instrumental period (>99% likelihood). npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde With the strengthening El Niño and June, July, and August all setting new monthly records by large margins, it has become nearly certain that the annual average for 2023 will set a new record high for the instrumental period (>99% likelihood). npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde El Niño has continued to strengthen, and is projected to continue well into 2024, which will continue to boost global average temperatures somewhat. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde During August, record warmth was particularly prominent in the tropics, as well parts of the Pacific and the North Atlantic. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Above average temperatures were widespread in August, with the exception of Antarctica, which saw quite cold conditions in part. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Globally, August 2023 was record-shatteringly warm. npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k Dr. Robert Rohde Berkeley Earth's August 2023 Temperature Update
