Simple Steve

New link https://www.youtube.com/live/Tl5M6KpYDss
Yesterday I had to restart to fix a bug. But during that I learned how to restart without breaking the link
So should be a permanent link now

2025-04-10 08:47:28 GMT

- reply

True. But interesting that Bitcoin reveals whatever the most popular unit of account is

2025-04-10 07:56:19 GMT

- reply

True. Especially if you bought a non-round usd amount and you used a rate more than a few % off the rate you see on exchanges
However if you bought a round usd amount near market rate it will show up in the cluster

2025-04-10 07:20:47 GMT

Nostr - you weren’t ready for this yesterday. Are you ready today?
This price of bitcoin comes 100% from on chain data.
You can run it open source from your own node.
You can watch it live streamed all day 24/7 here
https://www.youtube.com/live/Tl5M6KpYDss
https://m.primal.net/QKZQ.mov

2025-04-10 00:24:03 GMT

- reply

Lots of reasons but it’s massive. Those yellow lines are round usd and the color scale is LOG!
If I plotted the color in linear you wouldn’t see anything but round usd almost
https://m.primal.net/QKKL.jpg

2025-04-09 22:15:40 GMT

Streaming live at
https://www.youtube.com/live/Tl5M6KpYDss
https://m.primal.net/QKFf.mov

2025-04-09 19:50:02 GMT

- reply

There are 1000x more transactions at exactly $100 and $50 than there are at any other random amount

2025-04-09 19:49:08 GMT

- reply

Yes. It doesn’t work for one transaction. You have to do it for alll transactions and see where the cluster forms

2025-04-09 19:48:08 GMT

- reply

Updated stream link
https://www.youtube.com/live/Tl5M6KpYDss

2025-04-09 19:47:39 GMT

- reply

Yeah will be on my website soon

2025-04-09 16:47:28 GMT

- reply

It’s real

2025-04-09 16:47:05 GMT

- reply

Take BTC amount of each tx
Divide $100 by all amounts
Now you have USD/btc, and there will be a cluster at the price people used to send exactly $100
Then divide $50 by all amounts
Divide all common round usd amounts by all BTC amounts
Overlay on top of each other
The price emerges

2025-04-09 15:20:57 GMT

If we listen closely
Bitcoin tells us its own price
UTXOracle is LIVE!
100% on-chain data
Real-time mempool entries
No banks
No exchanges
No paper trading
No API calls
Open source
Decentralized
The only objective price
Live Streaming at https://www.youtube.com/live/8Q-Wzl0BL74
https://m.primal.net/QJmR.jpg

2025-03-31 01:45:45 GMT

https://m.primal.net/Pytm.jpg
https://m.primal.net/Pyto.jpg

2025-03-30 02:42:39 GMT

Today
https://m.primal.net/Pxtd.jpg

2025-03-29 20:12:03 GMT

- reply

I love all the idea you’re having. I also think a new world is opening here
As for op codes, those are at the script level and scripts are not allowed to ask for information outside of the transaction
Even if I were to embed UTXOracle price in an op-return, not other tx script could read that op-return
So there still needs to be some kind of host that’s running both the oracle and the dlc
However UTXOracle makes it all people running these things will be working with the exact same price

2025-03-29 14:53:52 GMT

The on chain price of Bitcoin yesterday
https://m.primal.net/PxNQ.jpg

2025-03-28 21:14:04 GMT

Preview of UTXOracle Intraday
UTXOracle gets the bitcoin directly from your node. Open source, decentralized, no trusted third party.
The daily avg price code is available at utxo.live/oracle
Just recently I’ve developed an intraday version. The plot below (code in beta) contains 25,000 on chain transaction data points.
By exploiting the fact that people tend to transact in round amounts of usd, the price signal emerges as an embedded on chain signal.
https://m.primal.net/PwZB.jpg

2024-09-27 17:22:49 GMT

Seems like part of the utxo ownership debate lies in the taboo corner of the “with freedom comes responsibility” rabbit hole. It feels uncomfortable to ask the further question “but what about the person who doesn’t want responsibility and is happy to give up some freedoms.” When this arises in our mind we sometimes switch from the curious mode to the “ought” mode and say “well they should…” or we proudly recall a founding fathers quote about choosing death over the lack of freedom. But those responses feel more like avoiding the question. When we say choosing death we mean choosing our own death, not the death of others making a different choice. Most deep thinkers in this space hold the non-aggression principle fairly central to their ethics so we wouldn’t initiate violence towards someone giving up freedoms for the benefit of non responsibility. We’d advise against that choice, but again we’re avoiding the question. I think there’s a very good chance that a very large percentage of people will simply choose the non responsibility route. Furthering the taboo nature of this line of thinking is that this becomes close to some kind of freely chosen slavery. But we needn’t go down that tangent when as the issue applies to the non slave who simply chooses a little less freedom. Many of us thought the Covid cellar dwellers were cowards, but so long as their choice affects only themselves, we respect their right to be cowards. I would never encourage that route, but regardless of encouragement, I think most people will chose it. Imo most will happily give up the benefits of utxo ownership over the responsibility of utxo ownership. I also think it’s avoiding the issue to imagine that some UX improvement or protocol change will make the foundational issue go away. Sure better ux can help a little but 99% of the “bad ux” problem is that you are responsible for losing your coins, and the extent to which you do not have the ability to lose your coins is the extent to which you don’t own the coins. Everyone knows there’s something dishonest about the person claiming they have a technological solution that fixes this. Clearly some have the hfsp mentality - they know most don’t want the responsibility, likely nothing will change that, and attempting to create more utxo space is pointless. Others feel it is our responsibility to create more space for them incase this dynamic changes and suddenly most people want the responsibility. I think it’s fairly obvious right now that a very small percent of people want the responsibility. Maybe if your circle of friends is only bitcoiners you’d think otherwise, but if you have non bitcoiner friends and family you know what they’re like. And it’s not bitcoin, it’s that they’d always prefer to not be the one responsible. And to think that Bitcoin will fix this about people I think is again being dishonest. My point here isn’t so much that I have to solution to the problem. I’m more trying to point out that it’s this taboo topic that I think lies behind the utxo debate. I guess I’m also writing this to clear up my own thoughts on it. Maybe I shouldnt post it. Screw it, this is Nostr here goes

2024-09-21 17:29:29 GMT

94% of mempool transactions are data storage transactions
https://m.primal.net/Kwpi.jpg

2024-09-21 11:52:46 GMT

Have we had a full block where 100% of the transactions were op_return?
I think we’re on track to have one this weekend

2024-09-18 13:18:55 GMT

- reply

Anyone with a large mempool and a Python RPC connection can run a similar script and get the results for your mempool
https://m.primal.net/Ktoy.jpg

2024-09-18 13:17:35 GMT

Since June, bitcoin transactions with very low fees (2 sat/vb or less) have grown from 34% to 94% of the mempool, and 77% of these transactions are storing op_return data.
Analysis script below.
Image credit: mempool dot space.
https://m.primal.net/Ktov.jpg

2024-09-18 03:45:44 GMT

Bitcoin fees have been declining since their peak over 6 years ago in 2018. They're currently at 12 year lows.
https://m.primal.net/KtUy.jpg

2024-09-17 20:30:19 GMT

The mempool is essentially empty for monetary transactions.
2 sat/vb fee transactions are regularly clearing.
Running this script my mempool has 45k txs at 2 sat/vb or below and 80% are op_return txs.
https://m.primal.net/KtFo.png

2024-09-17 12:27:40 GMT

An interesting dynamic that’s flipped in the past year is that big spent utxos are now older than small spent utxos.
Chart: 8 years spent utxo ages. Yellow is older, blue is younger.
https://m.primal.net/Kshk.jpg

2024-09-16 16:14:29 GMT

https://m.primal.net/Krts.jpg
https://m.primal.net/Krtu.jpg
https://m.primal.net/Krtt.jpg

2024-09-14 12:36:46 GMT

Is it fair to say that these 1-2 sat/vb txs in the mempool are pretty much all runes, brc20, and other ordinal/inscription based txs?
https://m.primal.net/Kpfw.jpg

2024-09-12 14:29:56 GMT

We need to keep eating meat in order to have the mental clarity to engineer proteins that are superior to meat.
If we start eating plastic now, we’ll never get there.

2024-09-12 13:54:56 GMT

- reply

100%
Good UX is bad for bitcoin

2024-09-12 13:50:04 GMT

The less people you tell about your stack, the more you can stack.

2024-09-12 13:09:49 GMT

- reply

While the true Tao is deeper, the spoken Tao is a helpful Tao

2024-09-11 18:44:07 GMT

Total Bitcoin fees on Sept 6th were 6.552 BTC.
The last time they were this low was 12 years ago in April 2012.
https://m.primal.net/KnDY.png
https://m.primal.net/KnDW.jpg

2024-09-10 20:41:21 GMT

Transaction fees are at twelve year lows.
Chart: All time total daily tx fees priced in real money (bitcoin). Log scale. 7 day avg.
Source: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/transaction-fees
https://m.primal.net/KmOb.jpg

2024-09-09 13:51:59 GMT

Days held before spending of each utxo in the past year.
The purple squiggly line is wizard stuff.
Very few old coins being spent recently.
Source: utxo.live
https://m.primal.net/Kkww.png

2024-09-07 17:34:26 GMT

- reply

Currently no blocks can be created after 2106 because the time stamp field is stored in 32bits which reaches its limit in 2106 and a consensus requirement is for the timestamp to be greater than previous timestamps.
https://bitblend2106.github.io/bitcoin/BitBlend2106.pdf

2024-09-07 16:46:30 GMT

- reply

The thing is the the sooner we fix it the less likely it will need a hardfork.
For example if we fixed it now, a node would have to run for 80 years in order to hard fork

2024-09-07 15:20:26 GMT

We should consider fixing the 2106 bug before covenants

2024-09-05 18:22:07 GMT

Fiat is keeping the best athletes from getting paid correctly. NFL Quarterbacks who signed contracts 3 years ago were the highest paid at the time. Now they’re the lowest paid, even though they’re the best, only because they set their salary 3 years ago. The highest salary is now the newest salary no matter the skill.

2024-09-04 12:29:18 GMT

- reply

His optimism is inspiring. The only thing we know about the future is that it will be fantastic

2024-08-31 12:29:41 GMT

- reply

You mean that age increases during bull runs?

2024-08-31 12:07:31 GMT

- reply

Yes for every tx in every block, I make a data point for the age of each input in the tx

2024-08-31 11:53:59 GMT

The age of every bitcoin transaction.
Source: utxo.live
https://m.primal.net/KWyq.png

2024-08-30 11:16:54 GMT

All utxos spent yesterday.
Source: utxo.live
https://m.primal.net/KVCP.png

2024-08-30 11:15:19 GMT

- reply

Source: utxo.live

2024-08-30 10:43:38 GMT

Every Bitcoin Transaction to Date
https://m.primal.net/KVAN.jpg