Simon Wren-Lewis

Professor of Economics, Oxford University

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Last Notes

2026-09-15 07:56:29 GMT

New post: Racism and xenophobia are not 'legitimate concerns'
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/racism-and-xenophobia-are-not.html
When politicians/media describe groups like those in black wearing masks as protestors against asylum seekers in small boats, they presume the motive is 'legitimate concerns' rather than racism.

2026-05-12 08:06:05 GMT

New post: Why has Westminster politics become so dumb?
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/why-has-westminster-politics-become-so.html
How and why the rise in right wing populism led to a deterioration in the level of political debate.

2026-05-01 07:34:46 GMT

This week's post: Capital and Right Wing Populism https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/04/capital-and-right-wing-populism.html
Business leaders who speaks out against right wing populism may find that they and their businesses suffer at the hands of populist party leaders if they come to power and corruption becomes endemic.

2026-03-27 08:55:13 GMT

This week's post: Both Reform and Conservatives are now officially Islamophobic https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/both-reform-and-conservatives-are-now.html
The last thing we need right now is a clash of civilisations, but the political right in both the US and UK seem determined to engineer one.

2026-03-01 08:37:34 GMT

New post: Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html
Some say that the Gorton and Denton result shows how to defeat Reform. It doesn't. The right wing vote was higher, and if repeated in a General Election the right would be very hard to beat.

2025-08-22 08:09:14 GMT

ICYMI: When did relative UK decline begin? Productivity and the Global Financial Crisis https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/08/when-did-relative-uk-decline-begin.html
Was the Global Financial Crisis the reason for the UK's decline in growth and living standards? Why eyeballing the aggregate data may be misleading.

2025-06-03 08:09:54 GMT

New post: The IMF on the UK’s fiscal rules
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-imf-on-uks-fiscal-rules.html
Singling out any one item of public spending to be the residual to be adjusted to ensure your rules hold in the OBR’s March forecast is a daft way to make fiscal decisions.

2025-05-02 08:02:45 GMT

ICYMI: What Labour is getting wrong in fighting right wing populism https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/what-labour-is-getting-wrong-in.html
Why triangulation on immigration works for a Lab opposition but doesn't work for a Lab government: see Reform + Green vote in Runcorn. Stop copying Reform and be honest about trade-offs.

2025-05-01 07:52:41 GMT

- reply

https://unherd.com/newsroom/reform-uk-voters-approval-of-donald-trump-nosedives/

2025-03-22 09:17:57 GMT

ICYMI: Falling confidence in vaccination illustrates how the media’s obsession with balance and impartiality, and its aversion to regulation, can kill. https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/falling-confidence-in-vaccination.html
Vaccination rates are falling. It is the media as much as populists who are to blame for this.

2025-01-31 09:01:02 GMT

ICYMI: Labour and Growth https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labour-and-growth.html
In looking at growth I think the political economy frame is more helpful than looking at different academic theories. Key reasons for lack of growth over the last 15 years (GFC, austerity, Brexit) were ideological or political.

2025-01-20 08:57:09 GMT

New post: Mediamacro melodrama
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/mediamacro-melodrama.html
Just a week ago the UK media was speculating that Reeves was about to be sacked and who might replace her, all because of largely global movements in interest rates. How and why did the media get things so wrong?

2025-01-07 09:21:06 GMT

New post: Vibes for the economy and other things
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/vibes-for-economy-and-other-things.html
Why does the mainstream media, without being told to do so, often present a view of the world that departs from the view held be experts in the field, and why does this failure matter?

2024-12-17 08:51:26 GMT

New post: After neoliberalism: dynamics of transformation
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/after-neoliberalism-dynamics-of.html
The divide is no longer between traditional parties of the right and centre/left, but the centre/left and a populist plutocratic right focusing on socially conservative issues. Why did this happen?

2024-12-10 09:02:55 GMT

New post: The politics of stupid
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-politics-of-stupid.html
The politics of stupid is believing that the way to deal with Farage or Trump type populism is to do what Farage or Trump happens to be shouting about at the time.

2024-11-19 08:53:21 GMT

New post: Freedom of Speech and Media Regulation
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/freedom-of-speech-and-media-regulation.html
A media outlet that is knowingly distorting the truth in the material that it provides its users is misleading them and therefore harming them. We have a right not to be misled.

2024-11-02 08:53:10 GMT

ICYMI: A budget that points the way but doesn’t get us very far
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-budget-that-points-way-but-doesnt-get.html
This is not so much a ‘soaking the rich’ budget as a ‘mildly inconveniencing the rich’ budget. Most additional tax comes from employers NICs, which will lower wages or raise prices.

2024-10-31 09:01:53 GMT

New post: A budget that points the way but doesn’t get us very far
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-budget-that-points-way-but-doesnt-get.html
With health inevitably absorbing a larger share of GDP, keeping the overall current public spending share roughly flat is not going to end austerity, or reduce poverty.

2024-10-03 07:56:17 GMT

ICYMI: October Budget 5. The UK’s Fiscal rules: one good and one bad https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/october-budget-5-uks-fiscal-rules-one.html
Getting rid of the falling debt to GDP rule is really a no-brainer for any Chancellor whose main concern is the health of the economy rather than what the media commentariat might say.

2024-09-28 08:11:59 GMT

New post: Why improving health is an excellent investment in the economy
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/why-improving-health-is-excellent.html
As a recent IPPR report shows, the UK at the moment is an excellent example of why a healthy economy depends on a healthy population (and shows how best to achieve that).

2024-09-17 08:41:51 GMT

- reply

But this does sound a bit conspiritorial. It can happen, but often I think politicians adopt or maintain bad fiscal rules because of what I have elsewhere called mediamacro: incorrect analogies between governments and households that political journalists love to use, mostly not because they have an agenda but because it allows them to think they understand macro.

2024-09-16 08:26:01 GMT

As our letter in today's FT makes clear, higher public investment is crucial for better public services and overall economic growth. The only purpose of the falling debt to GDP fiscal rule is to keep public investment low. That rule has to go. https://www.ft.com/content/b0df3109-07e9-4fec-86ba-9285c2b4a1c2

2024-09-05 08:17:15 GMT

ICYMI. October Budget 2: How much do UK taxes need to rise to end public spending austerity? https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/october-budget-2-how-much-do-uk-taxes.html
Ending austerity is a realistic target for Labour over a 10 year period. To get 10 years in power it makes sense to raise taxes + spending sooner rather than later

2024-08-29 08:25:30 GMT

ICYMI: Transforming the politics of immigration https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/transforming-politics-of-immigration.html
While the government may benefit in the short term from falling immigration numbers, there will come a point when that trend is reversed, and the Tory media machine will make sure everyone knows about it.