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Last Notes

2026-10-20 13:32:53 GMT

Two to the power of two hundred and seventy-six thousand, seven hundred and nine to one against
Just edited a Wikipedia page on the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy to add a number other than 42 (direct link to edit, in case it’s removed).
The radio script uses “two the power of two hundred and sixty seven thousand seven hundred and nine to one against”.
https://andifugard.info/two-to-the-power-of-two-hundred-and-seventy-six-thousand-seven-hundred-and-nine-to-one-against/
#twohundred #sevenhundred #nine #power #thousand #guide #hitchhiker
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2026-10-19 03:04:55 GMT

Policy timelines
If you need evaluation findings sooner than the time it takes (1) to recruit enough participants for adequate statistical power, plus (2) the time for the final participant to complete the programme and have their outcome measured, plus (3) analysis and reporting time, then you need to conduct a literature review instead. Though you may want to run an evaluation too, so there is relevant literature to review in future.
The paragraph above summarises many talks on policy timelines, past and future. See also Bending evaluation timelines to meet policy deadlines.
https://andifugard.info/policy-timelines/
#policytimelines
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2026-10-17 03:11:50 GMT

Theory of change
The “change” in “theory of change” is often interpreted as meaning change over time, which can be misleading. If a programme is designed to prevent an outcome from occurring (for example, a worsening of mental health), then there may be no pre-post change at all. Alternatively, any observed pre-post change may be driven by regression to the mean or by factors other than the programme under evaluation.
In a counterfactual impact evaluation, the “change” of interest is the expected or desired causal effect (or “treatment” effect). This is the difference between two potential outcomes: the outcome that would occur under exposure to the programme and the outcome that would occur under the control or comparison condition. Rather than describing outcomes in isolation, the theory should define the contrast between these two potential outcomes, for example whether the programme outcome is expected to be higher or lower than the control outcome.
Taking a logic model list, this would mean replacing the usual outcomes and impacts with causal effects on various time scales. It needs a name though. Some ideas:
Theory of causal effect (ToCE/TCE)
Theory of programme effect (ToPE/TPE)
Theory of causal contrast (ToCC/TCC)
Theory of difference (ToD/TDD)
Theory of expected difference (ToED/TED)
Alternatively, maybe it’s time to return to “programme theory” or just “theory”.
https://andifugard.info/theory-of-change/
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2026-10-16 02:49:45 GMT

Just use AI
Just use AI – to compose a literature review (it’s accurate some of the time), to write programs (why learn a language), to analyse qual interviews (it saves you from listening), to analyse quant data (it saves you from learning statistics), to synthesise data (it saves time on fieldwork), to review others’ work (which used AI), to email a colleague or client (it corrects your horribly human tone), to summarise meetings (nobody writes notes, so they will forget anything it misrepresents), to generate insights (others may have had, but few will check or read them anyway), to write polished job applications (that edit you out), to compose poetry that rhymes (no more struggling to find words) or doesn’t (just use the right prompt), to create art (that reminds you of exhibitions you once saw), to tell stories (like authors you used to read), to write letters to loved ones, to apologise with no effort, to make important decisions, to think, to dream. Just use AI, it will make you happier and more productive and free up time to do something else—ask AI for ideas. If you want it more bleak, lighter, or academic, tell me which direction and I’ll take it there.
https://andifugard.info/just-use-ai/
https://andifugard.info/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/ai_line.png