Adam Isacson

Español en [@adam_esp](https://elefanti.co/@adam_esp ) Director for Defense Oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America. Defense, U.S. security aid, peace, borders, migration, and adjacent. Posts are mine and not necessarily WOLA's consensus view.

About Me (at my site): https://adamisacson.com/about/
WOLA Bio: https://www.wola.org/people/adam-isacson/
WOLA Border Oversight: https://borderoversight.org/
My site, on the Fediverse: [@[email protected]](https://adamisacson.com/author/adamisacson/ )

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Last Notes

2026-03-24 12:13:42 GMT

CNN reports that the military plane that crashed in southern Colombia yesterday was a 1965-vintage C-130H Hercules "donated to the Colombian Air Force by the US Air Force in September 2020." (https://cnn.it/4t5DHKm)
Here's the donation, in DOD's Excess Defense Articles database, one of a few C-130s transferred to Colombia through this program (https://bit.ly/eda-dbase):
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/116/284/090/485/134/979/original/f47d23383b2f4631.jpg

2026-03-20 20:20:21 GMT

Looks like a seasonal uptick in migrant encounters at the border. If so, expect March to be greater.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/116/263/355/298/690/966/original/cd9bea42c73153ff.jpg

2026-03-14 20:55:34 GMT

Convinced that supply issues aren't going to get any better (AI bubble, Iran war, fuel prices), I just ordered a new desktop — the best I can afford — even though my current one could probably last another year.
Apple will have it ready for me by… July 7.

2026-03-11 17:33:48 GMT

New WOLA Podcast:
Expectations are rising in Venezuela, but they will not be met without transparency, accountability, democracy, and the rule of law. Yet the Trump administration appears focused narrowly on oil production.
Here's a great conversation with Francisco Monaldi and Laura Dib: https://www.wola.org/multimedia/oil-and-the-rule-of-law-in-venezuela/

2026-01-22 22:39:13 GMT

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The last Republican showed up after some delay.
So the resolution that would've prevented unauthorized "boots on the ground" in Venezuela went down in both houses of Congress by the thinnest margins mathematically possible. (50-51 in Senate, 215-215 in House.)

2026-01-22 22:34:21 GMT

These are the ridiculous lengths to which they'll go to placate the White House and give up Congress's power to approve the use of military force.
Dulles Airport is 45 minutes away, even without traffic.
https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3md27svggvc2n
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/941/127/783/251/025/original/6cba3b99d3c95c27.jpg

2026-01-22 12:56:42 GMT

Wow, despite a 2-year-old US-backed security crackdown and presidential "armed conflict" declaration, #Ecuador's homicide rate rose to 50.91 per 100,000 in 2025
That's up from 47 in 2023 and 39 in 2024, and almost certainly the highest in Latin America (other than some Caribbean islands).
https://www.primicias.ec/seguridad/ecuador-homicidios-asesinatos-violencia-crimen-organizado-2025-114304/

2026-01-21 20:26:55 GMT

What impact are the US boat strikes having, besides killing >124 people?
- October-December 2024: 7,764 pounds of cocaine seized at the US-Mexico border.
- October-December 2025: 10,593 pounds of cocaine seized.
Cocaine is up 34% year-over-year *despite* the boat strikes.
Data: https://bit.ly/4bJOeFs
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/934/965/934/295/936/original/74bb11ace9fa2276.png

2026-01-21 19:18:23 GMT

Here's a video version of WOLA's latest podcast episode, on where to go now after Trump's first year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeUYLoaZKUg

2026-01-21 01:58:55 GMT

I was going to appear on a right-leaning cable news network over the weekend to talk about Minneapolis and ICE. They asked for some talking points ahead of time, and I sent the following. Within an hour, I got "unfortunately, we will need to cancel for today."
https://adamisacson.com/talking-points-that-didnt-make-it/

2026-01-20 18:14:27 GMT

Podcast: Trump was inaugurated 1 year ago today. A review with my colleagues Maureen Meyer and Carolina Jiménez lays out the hard work that lies ahead for rescuing democracy and human rights in U.S. policy toward Latin America.
https://www.wola.org/multimedia/a-year-into-the-trump-administration-we-are-in-untested-waters/

2026-01-17 14:22:43 GMT

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week
6 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.
https://adamisacson.com/latin-america-related-events-in-washington-and-online-this-week-99/

2026-01-16 23:30:22 GMT

I'll take "Headlines I'm completely not used to seeing" for $800, Alex.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/907/376/640/123/825/original/f67f7cd79ac1d5f7.jpg

2026-01-16 23:23:26 GMT

CBP has updated its dataset through December. It points to a winter decline in migration at the US-Mexico border.
Past patterns suggest a further drop in January, followed by sharp increases in March-April.
Here's Border Patrol apprehensions, at my table-generating site cbpdata.adamisacson.com :
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/907/347/734/841/334/original/e69202c451608860.jpg

2026-01-16 18:28:17 GMT

2026, when news photos of Colombian guerrillas and U.S. law enforcement are virtually indistinguishable.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/906/187/913/659/852/original/5e490ad0024ab855.jpg
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/906/188/071/671/018/original/eea4f54303c8bcdb.jpg

2026-01-16 18:06:19 GMT

In a hearing yesterday, Sen. Kaine (D-VA) said some enigmatic things, referring to classified briefings, about whether the Trump admin really cared about whether there were drugs aboard the boats being struck in the Caribbean and Pacific.
About 1:25 into the video here: https://bit.ly/4aZ0YYw
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/906/101/658/062/784/original/3deacb300157d647.jpg

2026-01-16 13:08:42 GMT

Looks like ICE deportation flights to Venezuela have resumed.
https://bsky.app/profile/iceflightmonitor.bsky.social/post/3mcjygrfvhc2t
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/904/931/315/001/397/original/8b8c5407c9fdc096.jpg

2026-01-16 03:22:56 GMT

They killed the *60 Minutes* CECOT torture story, but waved this one right on through.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2026/jan/15/cbs-news-ice-officer-injuries

2026-01-15 22:43:30 GMT

Did he at least let her have the FIFA peace prize

2026-01-15 01:40:05 GMT

Whether sprinting away from the J6 rioters, trying to ambush me in a hearing this time last year (https://bit.ly/4sCwnXb), or chickening out and changing his vote today, Josh Hawley is just an especially hot mess during the month of January.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/896/562/265/154/884/original/2be4075f76648ab3.jpg

2026-01-15 01:39:48 GMT

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The Venezuela War Powers resolution failed to move forward, by a 50-51 vote. Though Republicans have a 53-47 majority, JD Vance had to break the tie.

2026-01-14 22:07:59 GMT

Consideration of the Venezuela War Powers resolution has begun on the Senate floor: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm

2026-01-14 20:39:19 GMT

In Latin America, a big step in 1980s/90s transitions from military dictatorship to civilian rule was to stop trying civilians in military courtrooms.
This isn’t exactly that, but having civilians prosecuted by people in uniform is a big step toward Latin America's "bad old days"—here in the US.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/pentagon-military-lawyers-minneapolis-immigration-crackdown

2026-01-14 19:40:40 GMT

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This thread as a single post: https://adamisacson.com/the-perils-of-boots-on-the-ground-and-the-urgency-of-the-venezuela-war-powers-resolution/
Longer video explanation, with transcript: https://adamisacson.com/video-dont-sleepwalk-into-a-big-military-mission-in-venezuela/

2026-01-14 19:23:42 GMT

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166
Re-upping this thread because the Venezuela War Powers resolution is before the Senate today.
- The list of potential armed opponents is long.
- Plausible scenarios exist for "boots on the ground."
- Congress must assert itself because we haven't seen any plan for these scenarios.
#note1rrw…2z0r

2026-01-14 13:29:09 GMT

FYI this House Foreign Affairs Dems #Venezuela briefing is scheduled to start livestreaming in 2 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qksz-EgUtSk

2026-01-14 02:22:49 GMT

I paid my first and only visit to Venezuela 20 years ago this month. I wrote a blog entry about it (it was the heyday of blogs).
I was in listening mode, but because I work on demilitarization, I was skeptical.
From the Internet Archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20060202181338/https://www.democracyarsenal.org/2006/01/random_notes_on.html

2026-01-14 01:41:10 GMT

Venezuela is the size of Texas plus Utah put together. It's a place where the capacity to carry out violence is dispersed.
There's nothing wrong with demanding that, before the administration takes our armed forces down a slippery slope, Congress first gets to sign off on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONB6MMNdjiQ

2026-01-13 22:15:45 GMT

It’s light after 5:00pm in Washington now.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/890/096/683/276/782/original/ced1a958c77e953b.jpeg

2026-01-13 17:23:54 GMT

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Here's a transcript.
https://adamisacson.com/video-dont-sleepwalk-into-a-big-military-mission-in-venezuela/

2026-01-13 17:23:45 GMT

Ahead of tomorrow’s (Wednesday 14) likely Senate vote on the Venezuela War Powers Resolution, here’s a video explainer digging into
(a) scenarios that could lead to “boots on the ground” and an open-ended military mission in Venezuela, and
(b) the constellation of armed groups that U.S. personnel might have to confront if those scenarios become reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONB6MMNdjiQ

2026-01-13 14:06:15 GMT

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115855983101312145
5 days since posting, this podcast episode with my two Venezuela-specialist colleagues has already broken our record for most listens in its first week.
#note1ua0…x60k

2026-01-12 23:32:30 GMT

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166
This thread, as a single post: https://adamisacson.com/the-perils-of-boots-on-the-ground-and-the-urgency-of-the-venezuela-war-powers-resolution/
#note1rrw…2z0r

2026-01-12 23:07:33 GMT

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Sources consulted in this thread about armed actors:
1. Carlos Ruiz-Hernández at Foreign Policy foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/11/v...
2. RESDAL atlas of security in the Americas bit.ly/49oFiCw
3. Andrés Izarra cited at the Guardian bit.ly/3LzyzxL
4. Crisis Group in 2020 bit.ly/4qf6DhL

2026-01-12 23:06:42 GMT

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(12/12) Here is that resolution. Congress must assert its democratic, constitutional power to decide whether or not to authorize the use of force. There must be no green light for a vague, improvised, and complicated military mission in South America.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/98

2026-01-12 23:05:58 GMT

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(11/12) 52 Senators voted last Thursday to bring up a resolution to ensure that Congress specifically approves any further involvement of U.S. troops in hostilities in Venezuela.
https://bit.ly/49hsBe6
Given the risks laid out here, that’s a reasonable demand.

2026-01-12 23:05:19 GMT

(10/12) It might not be a full-blown “civil war,” but it could be a big and open-ended mission for U.S. personnel if they are deployed in Venezuela.

2026-01-12 23:05:11 GMT

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(9/12)
- Combat-hardened Colombian armed groups, like the ELN and FARC dissidents, who have a strong presence in Venezuela.
All these armed actors are invested in Venezuela’s status quo. Some portion could take up arms, especially if there is a foreign occupier to attack.

2026-01-12 23:05:01 GMT

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(8/12)
- Some portion of paramilitary “colectivos,” capable of urban combat, who total about 100,000.
- Venezuelan criminal groups, like “pranes” (prison gangs) and “megabandas” (large groups like Tren de Aragua).

2026-01-12 23:04:51 GMT

(7/12)
- Some portion of the feared intelligence services, DGCIM and SEBIN, which with elite police units total perhaps 30,000.
- Some (probably small) portion of armed citizen militias, who total over 1 million.

2026-01-12 23:04:42 GMT

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(6/12)
Venezuela has lots of armed actors that U.S. personnel could find themselves confronting in the event of “boots on the ground.” They include:
- Some portion of the current armed forces, National Guard, and police, which together total well over 300,000.

2026-01-12 23:04:32 GMT

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(5/12)
- Violent responses to any attempt to install the opposition, which won 2024 elections but may not have the security forces’ loyalty.
- Attacks on oil infrastructure apparently controlled by the U.S.

2026-01-12 23:04:18 GMT

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(4/12) Scenarios that could lead the administration to insert U.S. forces into Venezuela include:
-Fragmentation as elements of the Chavista government object to doing the Trump administration’s bidding.
- The Chavista government failing to hold the security situation together.

2026-01-12 23:03:58 GMT

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(3/12) We celebrate the releases of some political prisoners. We call for all (nearly 1,000) to be freed. We denounce the Maduro government's gross human rights violations.
But the rest of his regime remains in place: there has not been a democratic transition.

2026-01-12 23:03:48 GMT

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(2/12) Let’s consider the likelihood of a longer U.S. military mission in Venezuela, and the risks that might be involved.

2026-01-12 23:03:36 GMT

From WOLA:
The Trump administration has not ruled out having military “boots on the ground” in Venezuela.
What would that entail? Shouldn’t Congress have a say? That’s what the War Powers Resolution, up for a Senate vote this week, is all about. 🧵
(1/12)

2026-01-12 15:28:11 GMT

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A true "acting president" could release all the political prisoners in Caracas. Only a few dozen have been released. Looks weak.

2026-01-12 13:21:52 GMT

"How can I make Marco Rubio's job harder?" seems to be a question lots of people ask themselves.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/882/334/516/441/992/original/eda84bc8a777073d.jpg

2026-01-12 01:26:41 GMT

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week
10 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.
https://adamisacson.com/latin-america-related-events-in-washington-and-online-this-week-98/

2026-01-09 16:08:56 GMT

In the latest WOLA Border Update:
The U.S. military operation to extract Nicolás Maduro has changed little for Venezuelan migrants. Updates about smuggling and stranded migrants in Mexico. Updates about new border barriers.
https://www.wola.org/2026/01/u-s-mexico-border-update-venezuelan-migration-notes-from-mexico-border-barriers/

2026-01-08 23:22:47 GMT

Welcome back, Rocío San Miguel. None of this should ever have happened to you.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/world/americas/san-miguel-venezuela-prisoner-released.html

2026-01-08 19:55:40 GMT

Lashing out at 10% of your party's Senate delegation is a cool way to ease concerns about the wheels coming off.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/861/234/005/338/894/original/0218bacc99ddba88.jpg

2026-01-08 19:17:12 GMT

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Next steps on the Venezuela war powers resolution:
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/861/082/462/322/462/original/0ae9735bf1651619.jpg

2026-01-08 16:53:19 GMT

This is just the motion to discharge, in one of two houses of Congress—but as an expression of doubt/concern about the Venezuela intervention, it is unexpected and a big deal.
The Rs may be Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young, but not 100% sure.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/860/516/400/307/043/original/44b7645ff60cae84.jpg

2026-01-07 21:40:07 GMT

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115854790795328125
Here's a video version of today's podcast episode, con letra en español.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CET-b9ChqT8
#note1rha…c2tp

2026-01-07 18:18:34 GMT

Here are excerpts from DHS's 2023 guidelines for the use of deadly force. What we're seeing and hearing from Minneapolis today suggests that these standards have been thrown out the window and stomped on.
See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/23_0206_s1_use-of-force-policy-update.pdf
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/855/189/040/076/585/original/65324023723f670f.jpg
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/855/189/213/553/195/original/a17fd5be9dd35d63.jpg

2026-01-07 16:36:54 GMT

Do not miss this podcast episode with my WOLA colleagues Laura Dib and Carolina Jiménez. On the #Venezuela situation of course. We’ll keep them coming.
https://www.wola.org/multimedia/a-shocking-u-s-attack-and-a-transition-without-a-transition-in-venezuela/

2026-01-04 20:06:31 GMT

Is this "strategic clarity?" I don't remember stuff like this in Clausewitz.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/838/627/422/269/384/original/aed9f0c0da8dfe76.jpg

2026-01-04 19:43:24 GMT

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yeah it went away for a few minutes mid-day, still no idea why

2026-01-04 16:54:50 GMT

I'm not WOLA's Venezuela expert, but I sat down overnight and thought through who might be able to generate violence in the country now that the US is "running" it.
The list includes elements of the armed forces and intelligence services, colectivos and militias, and Colombian and Venezuelan armed and criminal groups.
Has the Trump administration thought this through?
https://adamisacson.com/possible-violent-actors-in-post-maduro-venezuela/

2026-01-04 01:05:53 GMT

Search this transcript of today's White House press conference on Venezuela. Try to find any variant of the word "democracy."
https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026/

2026-01-03 23:03:32 GMT

Last 90 days' Google searches for "Pottery Barn Rule."
("You break it, you bought it" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_break_it,_you_buy_it)
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/833/661/343/795/025/original/4bd9177041d4b1ef.jpg

2026-01-03 17:36:02 GMT

From WOLA: "Venezuelans deserve a peaceful transition to democracy and respect for their fundamental rights. Nonetheless, unilateral U.S. military action, in violation of standards that have guided the international order for nearly a century, is reckless and dangerous."
https://www.wola.org/2026/01/military-action-venezuela-united-states-maduro-trump/

2026-01-03 17:29:45 GMT

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The 1989 occupation of Panama involved 27,000 U.S. military personnel. Venezuela has 12 times the land area of Panama, 6.5 times the population, and a much larger array of armed and criminal groups.

2026-01-03 17:29:27 GMT

There are just 15,000 soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen currently deployed around Venezuela.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/832/347/303/472/986/original/47fa1aa6acf7d491.jpg

2026-01-03 17:01:11 GMT

Huge military commitment incoming.
"We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition."
Gonna need a *lot* more than 15,000 troops for that.

2026-01-03 11:03:34 GMT

Here's a dangerous effort to carve out a loophole in presidential war powers big enough to drive a tank through.
If such an authority existed, the president could invade anywhere, anytime, without involving Congress—just by claiming, without proof, that an attack is "imminent."
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/830/079/436/519/original/d7c840f2ab1e149f.jpg

2026-01-03 09:50:31 GMT

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If accurate, this raises the question "who is governing Venezuela right now, and tomorrow?" (The answer isn't "Delta Force" or "SEAL Team 6," that's not what they do.) While nearly every state has a presidential line of succession, that may not indicate where power actually lies in coming days.

2026-01-03 09:41:18 GMT

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Meanwhile: now we don't know how many people were killed in the 12/30 boat strike - https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/4370416/coast-guard-suspends-search-for-individuals-in-the-pacific-ocean/
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/506/631/927/835/original/33fca5ef01c9dad3.jpg

2026-01-03 09:30:57 GMT

Let's wait for further confirmation on this, but
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/466/100/698/103/original/c43fe1192a0c26f4.jpg

2026-01-03 09:30:42 GMT

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Congress was not only not consulted: even the committees that oversee the Defense Department were kept in the dark, CNN reports. cnn.it/4aHZou2
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/464/791/616/179/original/6cd404a46caafeed.jpg

2026-01-03 09:30:15 GMT

The War Powers Resolution of 1973 clearly states that the President may not send troops into hostilities or imminent hostilities without:
- a declaration of war
- specific congressional authorization
- an attack on the United States
And that the President must consult with Congress first.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/462/181/029/528/original/17beb5c5db60ba3e.jpg

2026-01-03 08:59:26 GMT

Venezuela government statement mentions attacks in Caracas capital district and neighboring states of La Guaira, Miranda, and Aragua.
https://x.com/petrogustavo/status/2007358443556876416
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/830/341/951/329/489/original/c1978b2585566744.jpg

2026-01-03 08:35:07 GMT

US attacks have begun. CNN and NY Times report explosions at La Carlota airbase and Fuerte Tiuna base in Caracas. (Fuerte Tiuna includes Venezuela's Defense Ministry HQ.)
Also, central coastal towns La Guaira (near Caracas) and Higuerote, and perhaps Aragua state.
https://cnn.it/4aHZou2 - https://nyti.ms/3Yn4kgn

2026-01-02 01:37:58 GMT

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Also, the Twitter account that posted this is the only clue we've even had about _which ocean_ the attack took place in. (The Pacific.)

2026-01-02 01:37:46 GMT

It should really bother all of us that the United States government left an unknown number of people floating in an ocean more than 2 days ago, and this seems to be the only information available about the search.
https://x.com/Southcom/status/2006474817076330557
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/822/942/706/208/267/original/84691d7043cc8842.jpg

2026-01-01 02:34:46 GMT

I'm sorry, but they did another one today. That's 10 people killed in the past 3 days, plus whatever survivors of yesterday's attack who don't get rescued.
Just an orgy of slaughter to end the year. 32 deaths in December.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/817/503/709/575/020/original/e92846179a3d85cf.jpg
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/817/503/874/986/046/original/7423ed4179921196.jpg

2025-12-31 22:43:29 GMT

This boat strike, in an unspecified ocean, had an unknown number of survivors. We are closely following what happens next.
This makes 31 attacks, and at least 110 killed.
After the September 2 attack when the U.S. military killed shipwrecked survivors, “commanders prioritized rescuing strike survivors, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions,” the Washington Post reported (https://wapo.st/4jlXIZd). “It is unclear who directed the change, when or why.”
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/816/576/040/971/864/original/3de5773251d96ba4.jpg

2025-12-30 23:12:30 GMT

In La Guajira, the 2nd-poorest of Colombia's 32 departments, fishermen aren't venturing far from shore for fear of being murdered by the United States. One has "occasionally seen drones flying above his boat."
From the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/world/americas/trump-boat-strikes-gulf-of-venezuela-wreckage.html
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/811/047/070/550/937/original/7a22d037d1bfed92.jpg

2025-12-30 22:12:28 GMT

Ali G meets LL Cool J meets Col Lockjaw
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/810/810/981/786/897/original/a59a8a82da95d592.jpg

2025-12-30 02:10:31 GMT

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That vote was Roll Call 346: https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025346

2025-12-30 02:10:17 GMT

That's the first known U.S. "land strike" in Venezuela.
Another big shout-out to the 212 Republicans and 1 Democrat in the House who voted against stopping Trump from attacking Venezuela without congressional authorization.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/politics/cia-drone-strike-venezuela

2025-12-30 02:05:58 GMT

That's 30 boat attacks now, with a total of 107 victims.
Like a dark mystery novel with a serial killer who delights in his murders by posting videos after each one.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/806/066/861/140/941/original/43d1092343ed0244.jpg

2025-12-29 15:57:14 GMT

“What happened here for more than two months is unlike anything in recent American history: the federal government sending agents dressed for war into neighborhoods of the country’s third-largest city to arrest mostly people who look Latino and to ask questions later.”
https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/28/chicago-immigration-operation-midway-blitz-2/

2025-12-29 13:59:37 GMT

Before February 20, there were 4 Latin American entries on the US list of foreign terrorist organizations. Now, there are 19.
https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/803/209/514/267/547/original/b0ee641937d825ef.jpg

2025-12-28 20:11:00 GMT

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Possibly! I laid out some hypotheses back in November, and that's one of them (the final bullet point).
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/799/008/394/347/114/original/e92b0d670afe9af0.jpg

2025-12-28 20:04:08 GMT

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See monthly fentanyl seizures data here: https://borderoversight.org/2025/11/06/monthly-border-fentanyl-seizures/
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/798/981/800/295/521/original/92fa952227448644.png

2025-12-28 20:03:50 GMT

ICE cited our Border Update in an ad that apparently aired during some of today's football games.
More context: fentanyl seizures started declining *in mid-2023, in the middle of the Biden administration*, at the U.S.-Mexico border.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/798/980/536/858/384/original/baeeeb70fc330f03.jpg

2025-12-24 23:51:55 GMT

Give me enough eggnog, and you’ll hear what I _really_ think about Violet. I have opinions.
Also: Patty and Frieda.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/777/228/673/605/923/original/5234b2b659415f9a.png

2025-12-24 18:44:51 GMT

"Southcom tweeting about tracking a civilian aboard a small craft" sure hits different this year.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/776/017/107/190/405/original/64397a5497ef1733.jpg

2025-12-22 22:16:13 GMT

Took a sunset drive past the Trump-Washington Monument and the Trump-Lincoln, Trump-Jefferson, and Trump-World War II Memorials
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/765/526/410/982/860/original/771f2d9122e0aab3.jpeg
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/765/526/392/198/090/original/fd4e00b2aa93f52c.jpeg

2025-12-22 04:42:06 GMT

Here's a copy of the 60 Minutes promo that has been scrubbed from YouTube and elsewhere.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/761/380/860/699/950/original/fd016c179f9598a9.mp4

2025-12-22 04:36:30 GMT

Badly misinformed "journalist"... many—perhaps most—of the Venezuelan men were not here illegally, they had humanitarian parole, TPS, and/or pending asylum applications.
(See https://www.propublica.org/article/venezuelan-deportees-trump-immigration-asylum-el-salvador)
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/761/360/205/970/035/original/12d5e7d6f21ad80a.jpg

2025-12-19 17:08:17 GMT

CBP has updated its migration data at the U.S.-Mexico border through November, and I've updated the tool at cbpdata.adamisacson.com that makes that data easier to navigate.
Here are Border Patrol apprehensions since fiscal 2024, from https://cbpdata.adamisacson.com/cbp_data_table.php?time_period=months&year1=2025&year2=2026&organized_by=by_nationality&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Big+Bend+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Del+Rio+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=El+Centro+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=El+Paso+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Laredo+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Rio+Grande+Valley+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=San+Diego+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Tucson+Sector&bp_sectors%5B%5D=Yuma+Sector
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/747/327/660/470/274/original/7524187f161e7ca9.jpg

2025-12-19 14:49:33 GMT

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Sorry, that should read "December (1-18)" -- the average is still 1.2 per day.

2025-12-19 14:35:55 GMT

Two more bombings yesterday.
These numbers remain high: this illegal spree of high-seas murder may not even be deterring small-craft drug trafficking.
People murdered per day, monthly average:
- September 0.6
- October 1.5
- November 0.7
- December (1-17) 1.2
https://www.wola.org/2025/11/us-military-strikes-trump-drugs-caribbean/
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/746/729/981/933/075/original/368bf3787c8da3f1.jpg

2025-12-18 02:14:10 GMT

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If a Latin American military unit had killed 99 civilians in 26 attacks in 3 1/2 months, that unit would be ineligible for U.S. aid under the Leahy Law. There'd be a complete cutoff. That unit would be untouchable.

2025-12-18 02:13:55 GMT

Another boat strike today. Let's dedicate this one to the 214 Republicans and 2 Democrats who voted against stopping these illegal murders. (https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/roll345.xml)
The death toll from 26 attacks now stands at 99.
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/738/148/050/634/419/original/c2ba50ccc1461a23.jpg

2025-12-18 01:36:32 GMT

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A frustrating thing about this job is having to tailor what seems like a common-sense message in a way that might appeal to moderate Rs and keep conservative Ds from defecting.
For example, we all know that the "War on Drugs" is a disaster that needs to be torn down and replaced with something better... but you can't lead with that when talking to a member from a purple district that had 500 overdose deaths this year.

2025-12-18 01:26:35 GMT

Oh man do I hope the Post got this right, and we're not dealing with a stupid and reckless Venezuela "war" announcement this evening.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/12/17/trump-economy-speech/
https://cdn.masto.host/elefantico/media_attachments/files/115/737/964/379/644/281/original/87490798370aef53.jpg