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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar

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Last Notes

2026-07-19 15:30:00 GMT

The Institute for the Study of War is seeking a Communications and Publishing Associate to help amplify our research, track media impact, and ensure our products reach policymakers, journalists, and audiences worldwide.
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mqz3vbvpz72o

2026-06-05 16:04:00 GMT

VIDEO: Russia’s war in Ukraine is entering a new phase as Ukraine's recent successes on the battlefield and beyond are challenging the positional character of the conflict that has dictated the battlefield since 2023.
Watch the full video:
https://youtu.be/24CuE-K0uTQ
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mnkjceo2xj2i

2026-04-27 15:52:00 GMT

NEW: Iranian negotiators are reportedly attempting to secure an agreement that addresses the Strait of Hormuz and ends the war but pushes nuclear talks to a later stage. President Trump referred to a “new” Iranian offer where Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, but stated that was “not enough.”
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mkigh6xnbv2x

2026-04-16 00:53:00 GMT

Iran Update Special Report, April 15, 2026 | US naval forces continued to enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. US CENTCOM reported that no vessels had breached the blockade during the first 48 hours of enforcement.
Read the full update here: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041526
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/6)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjl73vsz2w2l

2026-04-15 17:38:00 GMT

NEW: Indirect US-Iran negotiations continue. The United States sent a draft proposal to mediators on April 14, and the Pakistani chief of defense forces arrived in Tehran on April 15, according to Axios. It does not appear that either side has publicly compromised on their red lines, however. (1/6)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjkgrelxgf2n

2026-04-15 01:35:00 GMT

NEW: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that no vessels have breached the US blockade on Iranian ports since CENTCOM implemented its blockade on April 13. (1/9)
Iran Update Special Report, April 14, 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041426
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjiqxhzqgm26

2026-04-15 00:03:00 GMT

NEW: Russia is increasingly centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will likely have both positive and negative consequences. 🧵(1/5)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041426
Other Key Takeaways:
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjilsk6gvx26

2026-04-14 20:18:00 GMT

NEW: Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is the cornerstone of a militarily defensible frontline in eastern Ukraine. The Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis. 🧵(1/7) https://isw.pub/FortressBelt041426
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mji7aecxdc2p

2026-04-14 17:30:00 GMT

NEW: The US & Iran may hold a second round of negotiations this week amid the continued ceasefire between the US, Israel, & Iran. Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential resumption of conflict. (1/5)
Iran Updates: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/iran-update/
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjhvtiq7mi2d

2026-04-14 17:09:00 GMT

NEW: North Korea invited PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Pyongyang for the first time since 2019 to discuss ways to deepen PRC-North Korea relations. (1/2)
Read the April 14, 2026, Korean Peninsula Update: https://isw.pub/KoreanPeninsula041426
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjhuopmi2s2u

2026-04-14 00:28:00 GMT

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are likely responsible for at least some of the recent drone attacks against Gulf states. 🧵(1/7)
Iran Update Special Report, April 13, 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041326
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjg4r2dife2k

2026-04-13 22:34:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin is downplaying Viktor Orban’s election defeat as Russia loses a key European ally.🧵(1/5)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041326
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjfwfvzvn32u

2026-04-13 16:40:00 GMT

NEW| The United States is simultaneously imposing a blockade on Iranian ports while taking steps to open the official transit route through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping not transiting to or from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 10:00 AM ET on April 13. (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjfclzhrvb2p

2026-04-12 22:07:00 GMT

NEW: The US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the Strait, while Iran prevents all other vessels from entering and exiting the Strait. The only vessels moving through the Strait at this time are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels. (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjdeficlmd2j

2026-04-12 21:31:00 GMT

NEW: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations of the Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday on April 11 and 12.🧵(1/3)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 12, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041226
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjdcex34xq2y

2026-04-12 15:55:00 GMT

NEW: US President Donald Trump announced that the US Navy will prevent all vessels from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 after US negotiators left Islamabad without a US-Iran deal. (1/8)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjcpmoct4w26

2026-04-12 01:32:00 GMT

NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. (1/5)
Iran Update Special Report, April 11, 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041126
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjb7gaipez2d

2026-04-12 00:25:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar041126
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjb3nivpym2l

2026-04-11 22:00:00 GMT

For over a month, ISW’s Middle East team has sustained around‑the‑clock coverage as the Iran war continues to evolve rapidly. (1/3)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjatjk5mmj22

2026-04-11 18:01:00 GMT

NEW: US Navy vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a freedom of navigation operation. (1/4)
Other Key Takeaways:
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mjag6zjd6n2k

2026-04-11 01:09:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin unilaterally declared a short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday. (1/6)
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar041026
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj6nnqr6bz2p

2026-04-11 00:11:00 GMT

NEW: The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad on April 10 ahead of planned negotiations on April 11. US Vice President JD Vance departed for Pakistan on April 10, operating under strict guidance from President Donald Trump.
Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate041026
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj6kezgdsi2l

2026-04-10 19:34:00 GMT

NEW: The PRC provided Iran with material support amid Iran’s conflict with the United States. PRC support is likely aiding Iran’s missile program reconstruction and improving Iran’s targeting abilities. (🧵1/3)
Read more in the April 10, 2026, China & Taiwan Update: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate041026
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj62wbz7dy2l

2026-04-10 18:00:00 GMT

NEW | Special Report: Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign Against Iran, Part I
The US-Israeli combined air campaign against Iran should be evaluated based on whether it achieved its political objectives, which is the core purpose of any military operation. (1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj5vnirpkq2y

2026-04-10 17:00:00 GMT

NEW: It will remain difficult to determine whether the Middle East ceasefire conditions are being upheld, given the lack of agreed-upon, written ceasefire documents available to the public. (1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj5sd5t3jz2x

2026-04-10 15:04:00 GMT

NEW | Special Report: The Kremlin’s Expanding Media Conglomerate
The Kremlin has been cultivating a network of foreign media outlets, content creators, and journalists by forming partnerships, conducting outreach, and fostering media education across the globe. (1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj5ltfv6ee2p

2026-04-10 00:30:00 GMT

NEW: Russian and Ukrainian reporting appears to confirm battlefield reporting that Ukrainian forces have achieved a drone advantage over Russian forces on the battlefield.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040926 (1/8)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj432akwa22i

2026-04-09 22:12:00 GMT

NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff on April 8. Gulf states continue to report drone attacks against them, however. (1/7)
Read the full report: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040926
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj3tblpd562k

2026-04-09 17:17:00 GMT

NEW: Iran, the United States, and Israel have not exchanged fire since ISW-CTP's last data cutoff on April 8. Bahrain’s Defense Ministry stated on April 9 that it has intercepted seven Iranian drones since April 8, however. (1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mj3cs4p4232o

2026-04-09 01:33:00 GMT

1/ NEW: US President Donald Trump announced on April 7 that the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal mediated by Pakistan.
Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040826
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mizo24jfvr2p

2026-04-09 00:41:00 GMT

1/ NEW: Russia maintains expansive territorial goals in Ukraine beyond demands for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast.
Read the full April 8, 2026 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar040826
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mizl5t2av72k

2026-04-08 19:47:00 GMT

ISW is hiring! We seek a talented and self-motivated full-time China Program Researcher to support the Alternative Strategies for the Coalition Defense of Taiwan (CDOT) project, a joint effort of ISW with the American Enterprise Institute. (1/3)
Apply today: https://understandingwar.bamboohr.com/careers/226
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miz2pxg62g2r

2026-04-08 18:01:00 GMT

NEW: The ceasefire with Iran remains incredibly fragile today, though ceasefire implementation is always challenging and will take time. Large-scale attacks from both sides stopped after the ceasefire went into effect, but reports of ceasefire violations have continued. (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miyusziyd72z

2026-04-08 01:53:00 GMT

NEW: The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. 🧵(1/10)
Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040726
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mix6ojc4vx2g

2026-04-07 23:50:00 GMT

NEW: Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. 🧵(1/6)
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar040726
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miwxsph7jh2g

2026-04-07 18:30:00 GMT

NEW: South Korea is pre-emptively planning to meet with the IAEA to assuage potential proliferation concerns stemming from its plan to develop nuclear submarines.
Korean Peninsula Update April 7, 2026: https://isw.pub/KoreanPeninsula040726
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miwfwh6dct2r

2026-04-07 16:34:00 GMT

NEW: US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach an agreement before the United States strikes Iranian energy infrastructure is set to expire in several hours. Iran rejected the United States’ terms for a ceasefire and responded with a “maximalist” counterproposal yesterday. (1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miw7hb6uss2z

2026-04-07 01:46:00 GMT

NEW: Iran rejected a ceasefire agreement with the United States to pause the war and “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz on April 6. 🧵(1/4)
Read the full update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040626
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miunt4go3r2l

2026-04-07 00:56:00 GMT

NEW: Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure is exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses and significantly damaging Russian oil export capabilities. 🧵(1/7)
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar040626
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miul2bc5gw2i

2026-04-06 18:30:00 GMT

NEW | Lessons Learned with Chinese Characteristics: Understanding the Limits of PLA Efforts to Adapt to Contemporary Warfare
Read the full special report:
https://isw.pub/PLAContemporaryWarfare040626B
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mitvhgjvnk2z

2026-04-06 17:56:00 GMT

NEW: The US-Israeli combined force continued to strike military, defense industrial, internal security, and energy infrastructure across Iran on April 5 and 6. ISW-CTP has observed strikes in 11 provinces since its last data cutoff on April 5. (1/6)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mittmr4gel2g

2026-04-06 01:45:00 GMT

NEW: Trump appears to have extended the deadline for Iran to stop attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to 8:00 PM ET, April 7 amid discussions w/ Iranian officials. Khamenei said that Iran would keep attacking shipping there. (1/6)
Iran Update Special Report, 04052026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040526
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mis5clgrrl2p

2026-04-06 00:07:00 GMT

NEW: UA forces intensified their long-range strike campaign on RU oil infrastructure w/in roughly the last 2 wks (since March 22-23), focusing on the RU Baltic Sea port & oil infrastructure critical to RU oil exports. (1/4)
RU Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 5, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040526
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mirxuutd5o2r

2026-04-05 17:29:00 GMT

NEW | The force rescued the 2nd crew member after Iranian forces shot down the F-15E. The rescue op led to an unspecified number of Iranian casualties. US forces destroyed 2 transport aircraft & many MH-6 Little Birds. (1/3)
We'll share more analysis in our 4/5 update. MORE: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/iran-update/
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mirblo4whi2l

2026-04-04 21:58:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin continues to face harsher backlash from Russia’s domestic populace about its intensified censorship efforts in recent weeks than Moscow likely expected or was prepared for. 🧵(1/3)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 4, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040426
Other Key Takeaways:
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mipa6m6fx52i

2026-04-04 16:34:00 GMT

NEW: China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it. Western media reported that China has sent multiple shipments of missile fuel precursor to Iran since the start of the war. (1/9)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mioo3uohs72x

2026-04-04 14:00:00 GMT

For more than a decade, ISW’s Middle East team has delivered independent, trusted analysis of the region. But the war in Iran has driven an unprecedented surge in demand for our work. (1/3)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3miofgrswuh2z

2026-04-03 23:41:00 GMT

NEW: Ukraine continues to generate leverage against Russia by accomplishing tactical, operational, and strategic battlespace effects. (1/4)
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar040326
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mimvijhzzr2z

2026-03-16 18:00:00 GMT

NEW: The combined force continued to strike on Mar 15-16. The regime reportedly took steps to further restrict info leaving Iran, which will likely limit our ability to observe strikes, & reportedly targeted ppl with Starlink access & reduced VPN access. (1/4)
Iran Updates: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/iran-update/
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mh6zzfevn52j

2026-03-16 16:00:00 GMT

We are proud to share that ISW Founder and President Kimberly Kagan received recognition as one of "The Hill's Top Women Shaping Policy." Read the full announcement here: https://understandingwar.org/newsroom/the-hills-inaugural-top-women-shaping-policy-list-recognizes-isw-president-founder-kimberly-kagan/?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hill
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mh6tbufcpm2a

2026-03-15 19:15:00 GMT

NEW | Special Report: The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: the United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war. 🧵(1/4)
Read more: isw.pub/IranWarSRBSK
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mh4npmyowt23

2026-02-04 04:19:00 GMT

NEW: RU resumed its combined missile & drone strike campaign against UA energy infrastructure on the night of February 2-3, after the moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.
Read the Feb 3, 2026 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar020326
More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mdyzijbnvo2l

2025-10-30 15:14:00 GMT

Russian Occupation Update, October 30, 2025: Active duty Russian servicemembers are directly contributing to the militarization and re-education of Ukrainian children. 🧵 (1/8)
Read more: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate103025
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m4gavagu7n2w

2025-10-30 01:10:00 GMT

NEW: The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire monitoring committee has agreed to meet more frequently, likely to encourage greater dialogue between Israel and Lebanon. The ceasefire monitoring committee may seek to increase dialogue between Israel and Lebanon to resolve ongoing disagreements. (1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m4erpswsne2h

2025-10-28 23:01:00 GMT

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is committed to developing the next generation of national security leaders through rigorous, immersive educational programs. 🧵(1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m4bzz3dbp32j

2025-10-24 22:24:00 GMT

NEW: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted at least 18 airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites and fighters across Lebanon on October 23 and 24, compared to 15 airstrikes between October 1 and 22. The Israeli airstrikes come amid concerns about an imminent Israeli escalation in Lebanon. 🧵(1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3xw4c2xtx2e

2025-10-22 02:08:00 GMT

Lavrov’s statements are a continuation of the Kremlin’s attempts to signal that Trump’s demands for an immediate end to the war are incompatible with Russia’s war aims.
Ukraine and its European allies signaled their support for Trump’s proposal for an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
[contains quote post or other embedded content]
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3qr7gckyk2b

2025-10-21 23:59:00 GMT

MORE | Iranian Nuclear Program Reconstitution: The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported on Oct. 20 that Iran is building unidentified structures at the former Taleghan 2 nuclear research site at Parchin Military Complex in SE Tehran Province. (1/2) https://isw.pub/IranUpdate102125
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3qjyswnhc2b

2025-10-21 14:11:00 GMT

The Kremlin is leaning into its cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as relentlessly advancing and a Russian victory as inevitable. This effort aims to obscure the reality that Russian forces are only making minimal gains at disproportionately high manpower costs... 🧵1/5
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3pj5tzcue2w

2025-10-21 03:37:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin is attempting to use all available informational avenues to convince the US, Europe, and Ukraine to acquiesce to the Kremlin’s demands by convincing them that a Russian victory in Ukraine is certain when it is anything but.
More in tonight's assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar102025
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3ofqj6nkk2p

2025-10-18 03:17:00 GMT

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump met at the White House on October 17 and discussed ongoing US support for Ukraine and efforts to the war
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101725
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/6)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3gt7i4jkb2e

2025-10-17 23:58:00 GMT

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported that Iranian activity around Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center's underground facilities indicates that Iran is not attempting to retrieve centrifuges or uranium stocks. (1/
October 17, 2025 Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate101725
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3gi2yrhjy2y

2025-10-17 00:00:00 GMT

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on 10/14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq.
Iran Update, October 16, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate101625
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3dxqr25hu2n

2025-10-16 18:44:00 GMT

AP: "[ISW] said in an assessment published late Wednesday that sending Tomahawks to Ukraine would not escalate the war and would only 'mirror Russia’s own use of … long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine.'" https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-trump-zelenskyy-visit-attacks-78c1b21fde3494786b0dfe0268c4a21e
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3dg33is4s2a

2025-10-16 15:07:00 GMT

ISW is aware that a known Russian bot network is again spreading fake videos that use the ISW brand and likeness to promote fabricated assessments and other false claims as part of the Kremlin’s concerted campaign to dissuade the US from providing Ukraine with Tomahawks. 1/2 theins.ru/en/news/285897
https://theins.ru/en/news/285897
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3czxpqr422a

2025-10-16 00:29:00 GMT

NEW: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 15 indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. 🧵 (1/4)
Read more: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate101525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3biv5fkea2e

2025-10-15 16:02:00 GMT

According to the March 24, 2025 Russian Occupation Update, Ukraine has been able to verify Russia’s deportation of 19,456 children to date, although the true figure is likely to be much higher because Russia frequently targets vulnerable children without anyone to speak for them. 🧵(1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m3amk6f4s62w

2025-10-15 00:16:00 GMT

NEW: Russian forces have conducted three company- and battalion-sized mechanized assaults in priority areas of Donetsk Oblast over the last two weeks, marking an inflection in recent Russian armor usage in Ukraine. 🧵 (1/5)
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m36xop4guw2e

2025-10-14 23:19:00 GMT

NEW: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi said on October 11 that he and the Syrian transitional government reached a “preliminary agreement” last week to integrate the SDF and Kurdish internal security forces into the state’s defense and interior ministries, respectively. 🧵 (1/5)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m36ujg3bna2y

2025-10-14 02:51:00 GMT

WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325
Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.
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https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m34pugnkil2d

2025-10-13 19:32:00 GMT

NEW: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. (1/4)
Read the full update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate101325
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m33xehuubu2y

2025-10-12 01:21:00 GMT

The RU defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate RU’s pre-war tank reserves, indicating that RU intends to present a long term military threat to NATO. (1/5)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar101125
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2xjvwzi252n

2025-10-10 21:34:00 GMT

NEW: The PRC may have provided targeting intelligence via satellite to support a recent, large-scale Russian strike on Ukraine. This support could provide the PLA with some critical operational experience that it currently lacks. (🧵1/2) 
Read more: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate101025
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2umqp7hai2n

2025-10-10 01:30:00 GMT

NEW: EU and NATO states continue to take steps to increase European defenses against covert and overt Russian attacks. FT reported on October 9 that four NATO officials stated that NATO states are discussing more forceful responses to Russia’s increasingly provocative actions. isw.pub/UkrWar100925
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2sjho4k6s2a

2025-10-09 18:35:00 GMT

ISW reviews internship applications on a rolling basis. Spring 2026 internships applications close November 14, 2025. To learn more about our four internship opportunities across all ISW teams, click here: https://understandingwar.org/about-isw/careers/#open-positions (1/2)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2rscunoii2y

2025-10-09 17:59:00 GMT

NEW: Russian federal ministries continue to facilitate the temporary deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia for cultural re-education programs such as “Cultural Map 4 + 85.” 🧵(1/4)
Read more: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate100925
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2rqbxs6c62e

2025-10-09 03:27:00 GMT

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which holds that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition, and his demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation. (1/
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar100825
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2q7k5jg7l2t

2025-10-08 23:57:00 GMT

NEW: Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, likely to try to discourage the United States from enforcing sanctions that target Iranian oil exports. (1/4)
Iran Update, October 8, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate100825
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2pttw2kdl2v

2025-10-07 00:46:00 GMT

NEW: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip.
Read the October 6, 2025, Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate100625
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2kvmukyjs2h

2025-10-06 13:42:00 GMT

MORE: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.🧵 (1/7)
isw.pub/UkrWar100525
[contains quote post or other embedded content]
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2jqj5hjac2d

2025-10-05 23:58:00 GMT

NEW: Russian President Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-RU bilateral relationship to concessions from the US on the war in Ukraine. (1/5)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Oct. 5, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2iciibntl2v

2025-10-04 00:47:00 GMT

NEW: Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of Oct. 2-3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Oct. 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100325
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2debdl4422s

2025-10-03 17:34:00 GMT

NEW: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia can support PLA modernization efforts.
Read the full update: https://isw.pub/AdversaryEntente100325
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2cm3j5ril2o

2025-10-03 13:44:00 GMT

The Russian army's advance in Ukraine slowed again in September, especially in the Donetsk region, according to an
AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). https://barrons.com/news/russia-s-ukraine-advance-slows-further-in-sept-afp-analysis-of-isw-data-76e246cc
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2c7anvsjc2k

2025-10-02 23:37:00 GMT

NEW: Former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy Commander Alaei emphasized in an interview with Nour News the role that Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and national unity played in its “success” during the Israel-Iran War in June. (1/2)
Iran Update, Oct. 2, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate100225
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m2apwt4qbp2e

2025-10-02 00:00:00 GMT

NEW: Senior Iranian officials appear to be preparing for potential military conflict. Iranian officials continue to believe that the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran will collapse.
Iran Update, September 30, 2025: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate093025
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/3)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3m26aqt5bye2t

2025-09-27 00:55:00 GMT

NEW: Iran has continued to expand its nuclear infrastructure at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province, which was not damaged or targeted during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025.
Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats.bsky.social: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate092625
More ⬇🧵(1/3)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzrritp27s2h

2025-09-26 22:07:00 GMT

NEW: President Trump reportedly did not approve a $400M military aid package to Taiwan at some point in Summer 2025, which could suggest to the PRC that its coercive demands for the US to limit some support to Taiwan are effective in some limited circumstances. Full update: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate092625
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzri2wr3fc2h

2025-09-26 00:04:00 GMT

NEW: Hezbollah is reportedly facing internal divisions among its members over its response to the Lebanese state’s plan to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah is also reportedly facing challenges in appointing new leaders following Israel's decapitation campaign in late 2024. https://isw.pub/IranUpdate092525
More⬇🧵
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzp657mmqk2c

2025-09-25 19:30:00 GMT

NEW: The Russian “Movement of the First” organization continues to play a key role in Russia’s efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian youth by forcibly removing children from occupied territories of Ukraine to Russian re-education and militarization camps. 🧵 (1/6)
Read more: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate092525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzoouf3c5w25

2025-09-25 18:39:00 GMT

WARNING UPDATE: The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections.
Read More: isw.pub/Moldova092525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzolysk4oc2c

2025-09-25 15:00:00 GMT

NEW: North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have broadcast in recent weeks the central role that drones play in their military modernization programs, demonstrating how US adversaries are learning from the war in Ukraine. 🧵(1/4)
Read more:
https://isw.pub/AdversaryEntente092525
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzo7rbxqxa2y

2025-09-25 03:30:00 GMT

NEW: The Kremlin is using nuclear threats to influence US President Donald Trump to stop his efforts to secure peace in Ukraine.⬇️(1/3)
Russia launched a multipronged informational campaign intended to mask Russia’s economic weakness that Trump recently correctly identified. isw.pub/UkrWar092425
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzmza5sprk2t

2025-09-23 23:22:00 GMT

NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei categorically rejected negotiations with the United States on September 23. Khamenei’s speech marks the first time that he has rejected all negotiations with the United States since the end of the Israel-Iran War. 🧵(1/4)
Read more:
https://isw.pub/IranUpdate092325
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzk2vbcxjk2c

2025-09-23 03:20:00 GMT

NEW: Some Iranian hardliners are renewing calls to revise Iran’s nuclear doctrine as part of a broader effort to restore deterrence after the Israel-Iran War and two years of Israeli military actions.
Read the September 22, 2025 Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate092225 (1/2)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzhxpcooia2g

2025-09-23 01:54:00 GMT

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on September 22 that Russia will adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year following its expiration in February 2026 and used threats to urge the United States to do the same.🧵 (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar092225
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzhsvbjbbc2z

2025-09-22 22:55:00 GMT

The deal would reportedly allow PRC-based company ByteDance to retain ownership of the proprietary TikTok content algorithm, which would mark a major US concession to Beijing. The CCP could easily co-opt the algorithm to spread disinformation and shape public opinion to its advantage. ⬇️
[contains quote post or other embedded content]
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzhiv6cocc2g

2025-09-20 02:05:00 GMT

NEW: Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091925
Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️ 🧵(1/7)
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lzac4ppott2r

2025-09-18 00:51:00 GMT

NEW: The E3 (United Kingdom, France, and Germany) stated on September 17 that Iran has not taken any concrete steps required to delay the snapback mechanism. (1/4)
Read the full update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate091725
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lz34zr3cl422

2025-09-16 23:41:00 GMT

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16. 🧵(1/5)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091625
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3lyyip5r3mc2j