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Last Notes

2026-07-11 01:58:29 GMT

US Government Sold $743 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 30-Year Yield at 5.06% on Inflation, Lax Fed, Supply Fears
Lots of new supply: Treasury debt of notes and bonds outstanding ballooned by $70 billion this week.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/10/us-government-sold-743-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-30-year-treasury-yield-at-5-06-on-fears-of-inflation-lax-fed-new-supply/

2026-07-10 20:28:55 GMT

Gasoline Price Spike Triggered Massive Price Surge of Used EVs as Auto Dealers Bid them up at Auctions
The wholesale price index for used EVs hits $31,156, now 61% higher than for ICE vehicles. Consumers are splurging to buy used EVs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/10/gasoline-price-spike-triggered-massive-price-surge-of-used-evs-as-auto-dealers-bid-them-up-at-auctions/

2026-07-10 01:50:47 GMT

The US, Largest Crude Oil Producer in the World, Produced 42% More than Saudi Arabia and 37% More than Russia in 2025
The strategic and economic importance for the US of US oil & gas production cannot be overemphasized. Canada is #4.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/09/the-us-largest-crude-oil-producer-in-the-world-produced-42-more-than-saudi-arabia-and-37-more-than-russia-in-2025/

2026-07-09 17:59:36 GMT

Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply to 14-Year High. Sales Slip Deeper into Deep Freeze. Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.49%
Spring selling season was a dud. But mortgage rates are not high; inflation is high.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/09/supply-of-existing-single-family-homes-jumps-to-10-year-high-condo-supply-to-14-year-high-sales-slip-deeper-into-deep-freeze-mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-49/

2026-07-08 22:02:33 GMT

AI Dominated the Fed’s Meeting as Driver of “Persistent Inflationary Pressures” & Demand Growth
The AI investment mania has begun to percolate through the economy, and the Fed has begun to fret about the effects.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/08/ai-dominated-the-feds-meeting-as-driver-of-persistent-inflationary-pressures-demand-growth/

2026-07-08 16:04:20 GMT

QT plus Rate Hikes: ECB Sheds €149 billion of QE Assets in Q2, -52% since mid-2022, Marks Gold Down by €160 Billion
The Fed’s anti-QT faction needs to take a look: The ECB has shed €3.70 trillion ($4.22 trillion) of its QE assets, nearly double the Fed’s QT, and nothing bad has happened.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/08/qt-plus-rate-hikes-ecb-sheds-e149-billion-of-qe-assets-in-q2-52-since-mid-2022-marks-gold-down-by-e160-billion/

2026-07-07 18:48:46 GMT

Consumer “Inflation Expectations” Throw the Fed another Curveball
The Fed watches inflation expectations closely. It wants them to remain “anchored.” But consumer inflation expectations have become unanchored.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/07/consumer-inflation-expectations-throw-the-fed-another-curveball/

2026-07-07 03:42:10 GMT

Home Prices in the Largest Countries of Europe in Q1 2026, from Splendid Housing Bubbles to a Market that’s Back to 2010
Prices for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czechia, Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/06/home-prices-in-the-largest-countries-of-europe-in-q1-2026-from-splendid-housing-bubbles-to-a-market-thats-back-to-2010/

2026-07-06 18:49:25 GMT

My Take on the Zero-Sum New-Vehicle Market in the US: Decades of Stagnation & Decline Interrupted by Steep Plunges
But not all automakers are losers in this tough market.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/06/my-take-on-the-zero-sum-new-vehicle-market-in-the-us-decades-of-stagnation-decline-interrupted-by-steep-plunges/

2026-07-05 01:01:23 GMT

Six-Month Treasury Yield Rises to 4%: Bond Market Tells the Fed to Get on with the Rate Hikes
Even banks are raising the yields on their brokered CDs to 4% and over. The coming rate hikes are getting real for investors.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/04/six-month-treasury-yield-rises-to-4-bond-market-tells-the-fed-to-get-on-with-the-rate-hikes/

2026-07-03 22:20:15 GMT

QT instead of Rate Hikes to Put a Floor under Plunging Yen: Bank of Japan Sheds 15.6% of its Massive Assets
Late to the QT game, it’s even selling its equity holdings outright. Nothing on its balance sheet is sacred.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/03/qt-instead-of-rate-hikes-to-put-a-floor-under-plunging-yen-bank-of-japan-sheds-15-6-of-its-massive-assets/

2026-07-02 19:29:18 GMT

Labor Market Tightens despite Tepid Job Growth as Labor Force Declines further amid Crackdown on Illegal Immigration
A highly unusual labor market for the US, marked by a shrinking supply of labor.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/02/labor-market-tightens-despite-tepid-job-growth-as-labor-force-declines-further-amid-crackdown-on-illegal-immigration/

2026-07-02 16:10:48 GMT

Tesla’s Deliveries Spike 25% in Q2, despite End of Federal EV Incentives, as Gasoline Prices Soared. Shares Plunge
But forget the Model S and X, and the Cybertruck.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/02/teslas-deliveries-spike-25-in-q2-despite-end-of-federal-ev-incentives-as-gasoline-prices-soared-shares-plunge/

2026-07-01 20:30:41 GMT

Unwinding the “Lock-in Effect” Suddenly Stalls as Homeowners Stopped Paying Off Below-3% Mortgages
Those ultra-low mortgages wrecked the housing market, but homeowners had nevertheless been paying them off steadily – until now.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/01/unwinding-the-lock-in-effect-suddenly-stalls-as-homeowners-stopped-paying-off-below-3-mortgages/

2026-07-01 14:55:15 GMT

Yen Craters to 4-Decade Low, JGB Yields at 3-Decade Highs: Monetary Policy Mess Comes Home to Roost
The collapse of a currency is nothing to be trifled with. But the BOJ's pussyfooted rate hikes & QT are too little too late.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/01/yen-craters-to-4-decade-low-jgb-yields-at-3-decade-highs-monetary-policy-mess-comes-home-to-roost/

2026-06-30 06:52:30 GMT

Inflation & Nominal Economic Growth to the Rescue: The US Government’s Ugly Fiscal Mess
US Government interest payments, tax receipts, tariffs, average interest rate on the debt, and Debt-to-GDP ratio in Q1 2026.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/30/inflation-nominal-economic-growth-to-the-rescue-the-us-governments-ugly-fiscal-mess/

2026-06-25 21:32:34 GMT

Inflation in “Core Services” Surges, plus AI’s Impact on Electricity & Goods: Inflation beyond Gasoline
The 6-Month "core services" PCE price index jumped 4.2% annualized, pushed the 6-month core PCE to 4.1%, worst since June 2023.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/25/inflation-in-core-services-surges-plus-ais-impact-on-electricity-goods-inflation-beyond-gasoline/

2026-06-20 17:13:57 GMT

Out Hiking in Europe. Shop (Partially) Closed through June
I’ll have sporadic access to the internet and will read the comments; if I turn into a night owl, I might write an article.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/20/out-hiking-in-europe-shop-partially-closed-through-june/

2026-06-19 13:25:56 GMT

US Government Sold $518 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 6-Month to 2-Year Treasury Yields Spike on Warsh’s “Regime Change” at the Fed
The 1-year Treasury yield spiked by 16 basis points, to 4.0%, highest since July, three rate cuts ago, as the bond market now expects multiple rate hikes.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/19/us-government-sold-518-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-6-month-to-2-year-treasury-yields-spike-on-warshs-regime-change-at-the-fed/

2026-06-17 19:17:53 GMT

“Regime Change” at the Fed: Fed Chair Warsh Makes the First Moves
Everything is up for review. “There’s a taskforce for that,” he said. Dot plot, possibly the last one, turns hawkish.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/17/regime-change-at-the-fed-fed-chair-warsh-makes-the-first-moves/

2026-06-16 20:57:34 GMT

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, May 2026
Home prices fell from peaks in prior years in 28 of the 33 cities, led by Austin -27% and Oakland -26%, while AI mania in San Francisco trickled down from “mansion shortage” to mid-tier.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-price-drops-gains-in-33-big-expensive-cities-may-2026/

2026-06-15 20:15:10 GMT

Government Uses Strategic Petroleum Reserve as Cudgel to Beat Down Oil-Price Mania: Worked for Second Time
A new role for the SPR. It wasn’t designed for that.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/15/government-uses-strategic-petroleum-reserve-as-cudgel-to-beat-down-oil-price-mania-worked-for-second-time/

2026-06-13 22:48:38 GMT

US Government Sold $646 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 2nd Wave of Inflation Approaches 10-Year Treasury Yield
How the long-term Treasury debt grows: Treasury notes & bonds outstanding rose on net by $59 billion this week.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/13/us-government-sold-646-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-2nd-wave-of-inflation-of-approaches-10-year-treasury-yield/

2026-06-12 21:31:07 GMT

Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as “Real” Yields Turn Negative
Inflation surged past these yields, though they've started to rise again. Households nevertheless poured more money into them.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/12/money-market-funds-cds-americans-and-their-piles-of-interest-earning-cash-as-real-yields-turn-negative/

2026-06-12 01:16:29 GMT

What Homebuilder Lennar Said about the Tough Housing Market: Average Sales Price Down 24% from Peak, back to 2017
Cut the price, and they will buy. Dealing with the affordability crisis. Sales volume is up, but shares have plunged by nearly 50%.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/11/what-homebuilder-lennar-said-about-the-tough-housing-market-average-sales-price-down-24-from-peak-back-to-2017/

2026-06-11 18:18:03 GMT

Producer Price Inflation beyond Energy: 6-Month Services PPI, “Core” Goods PPI & “Core” PPI Blow by 6%, Worst since 2022
The surge in energy costs is bad, but there's a lot of inflation from other sources.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/11/producer-price-inflation-beyond-energy-6-month-services-ppi-core-goods-ppi-and-core-ppi-all-blow-by-6-worst-since-mid-2022/

2026-06-09 19:30:03 GMT

Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes at 10-Year High, Condo Supply at 12-Year High, Sales still in Freezer
Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/09/supply-of-existing-single-family-homes-at-10-year-high-condo-supply-at-12-year-high-sales-still-in-freezer/

2026-06-08 20:48:43 GMT

As Home Sellers Grapple with Reality, Listing Prices Fall by Most in at Least a Decade
But each market dances to a different drummer, and declines have been far bigger in many markets.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/08/as-home-sellers-grapple-with-reality-listing-prices-fall-by-most-in-at-least-a-decade/

2026-06-05 22:20:02 GMT

Semiconductor Stocks Roll Over, Micron & Broadcom Tank 20% in 2 Days, Drag Rest of Market Along
We’re looking for culprits.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/05/semiconductor-stocks-roll-over-micron-broadcom-tank-20-in-2-days-drag-rest-of-market-along/

2026-06-05 17:27:27 GMT

Job Growth Trend Turns Around Decidedly after Weakening for Years, while Immigration Crackdown Caps Supply of Labor
Some industries hired, others cut jobs: we zoom out with charts by major industry categories.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/05/job-growth-trend-turns-around-decidedly-after-weakening-for-years-while-immigration-crackdown-caps-supply-of-labor/

2026-06-04 20:18:32 GMT

Who Needs Bitcoin & Cryptos (-50%) amid the Semiconductor & Miracle IPO Mania?
Rotating from mania to mania?
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/04/who-needs-bitcoin-cryptos-50-amid-the-semiconductor-miracle-ipo-mania/

2026-06-04 02:00:08 GMT

AI Investment Boom Sucks Up Hoarded Cash from Stock Market Investors & Companies, Sprays it into the Real Economy
It could break the stock market. But it’ll stimulate the economy. Just don’t expect inflation to cool on its own.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/03/ai-investment-boom-sucks-up-hoarded-cash-from-stock-market-investors-companies-sprays-it-into-the-real-economy/

2026-06-03 17:34:46 GMT

Housing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Winds Down with a Whimper. So Maybe Next Year?
But mortgage rates are not high historically, and “real” mortgage rates, amid resurging inflation, are relatively low.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/03/housing-markets-crucial-spring-selling-season-winds-down-with-a-whimper-so-maybe-next-year/

2026-06-02 17:26:12 GMT

And More Data Showing a Weirdly Decent Labor Market
But this dynamic makes it harder for young people to find a job.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/02/and-more-data-showing-a-weirdly-decent-labor-market/

2026-06-01 22:14:52 GMT

As Prices Spike, Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Rate in 4 Years, Orders Surge, Supplier Deliveries Slow
Amid improved automation and efficiencies, production rises, but employment doesn’t, or only a little.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/01/as-prices-spike-manufacturing-expands-at-fastest-rate-in-4-years-orders-surge-supplier-deliveries-slow/

2026-05-31 19:09:35 GMT

US Government Sold $742 billion of Treasury Securities last Week. T-bill Yields now Below Surging Inflation. Bond Market Bets on Rate Hikes
The Fed is behind the curve, the bond market is saying, and it’s going to hike belatedly starting later this year, whether it wants to or not.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/31/us-government-sold-742-billion-of-treasury-securities-last-week-t-bill-yields-now-below-surging-inflation-bond-market-bets-on-rate-hikes/

2026-05-30 01:18:34 GMT

The Magnitude of the Numbers Is just Mindboggling: 12 U.S. Companies, $30 Trillion
But if they pop: There are only so many trillions that can vanish from portfolios before it triggers a recession.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/29/the-magnitude-of-the-numbers-is-just-mindboggling-12-companies-30-trillion/

2026-05-28 18:35:52 GMT

PCE Inflation Surges Further Away from Fed’s Target, now Nearly Double the Fed’s Target, and 5+ Years above Target
Trend reversal started a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (inflationary AI boom), and gold jewelry (gold price spike) all surged.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/28/pce-inflation-surges-further-away-from-feds-target-now-nearly-double-the-feds-target-and-over-5-years-above-target/

2026-05-25 06:57:27 GMT

Oh Dear, Condo Prices already Dropped by 15% to 33% in 24 Bigger Markets, Some Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago
Plus, in another 44 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 7% to 14% so far, as the mindboggling Condo Bubble comes unglued.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/25/oh-dear-condo-prices-already-dropped-by-15-to-33-in-24-bigger-markets-some-back-to-where-theyd-been-20-years-ago/

2026-05-24 07:15:16 GMT

10-Year TIPS v. 10-Year Treasury Securities: Bond Market Has Long Been Delusional about Actual CPI Inflation
There's no indication the bond market is better now in figuring future inflation; its expectation of 2.4% annual CPI over 10 years seems woefully low.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/24/10-year-tips-v-10-year-treasury-securities-bond-market-has-long-been-delusional-about-actual-cpi-inflation/

2026-05-22 07:44:43 GMT

Prices of Single-Family Homes already Down 10% to 26% in these 15 Bigger Cities: Every Market is Different
San Francisco & Portland came off the list. Fort Worth & Aurora (CO) come on the list.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/22/prices-of-single-family-homes-already-down-10-to-26-in-these-15-bigger-cities-every-market-is-different/

2026-05-21 00:43:39 GMT

Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Debt-to-Income, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q1 2026: Americans and their Revolving Credit
The free-money hangover is getting worked off.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/20/credit-card-delinquencies-balances-debt-to-income-credit-limits-and-collections-in-q1-2026-americans-and-their-revolving-credit/

2026-05-20 06:22:27 GMT

Bond Bloodbath Worsens on Inflation, Lax Fed, and Flood of New Debt. Mortgage Rates hit 6.75%
Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/20/bond-bloodbath-worsens-on-inflation-lax-fed-and-flood-of-new-debt-mortgage-rates-hit-6-75/

2026-05-19 07:22:18 GMT

Auto Loan Balances, Debt-to-Income Ratio, and Delinquencies of Subprime & Prime Auto Loans in Q1 2026. How Bad Is it?
Several subprime-specialized dealer-lender chains collapsed, and shares of America's Auto Mart imploded. Subprime lending is not for the squeamish. But it’s only a small part of auto finance.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/19/auto-loan-balances-debt-to-income-ratio-and-delinquencies-of-subprime-prime-auto-loans-in-q1-2026-how-bad-is-it/

2026-05-18 08:04:33 GMT

Food Inflation in America by Product: It Boils down to a Sharp Acceleration on Top of Already Very High Prices
Ground beef, steak, chicken, fruit & veggies, coffee, dairy, eggs, other foods, and total.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/18/food-inflation-in-america-by-product-it-boils-down-to-a-sharp-re-acceleration-on-top-of-already-very-high-prices/

2026-05-17 04:17:47 GMT

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, April 2026
Home prices fell year-over-year in 25 of the 33 big expensive cities in April, a bunch set multi-year lows, led by Oakland & Austin, down by 26% from 2022. Two set new highs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-price-drops-gains-in-33-big-expensive-cities-april-2026/

2026-05-16 02:54:47 GMT

US Government Sold $691 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 10-Year Yield Spikes to 4.6%, 30-Year Yield to 5.12% as 2nd Wave of Inflation Takes Off
The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting very nervous.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/15/us-government-sold-691-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-10-year-yield-spikes-to-4-6-30-year-yield-to-5-12-as-2nd-wave-of-inflation-takes-off/

2026-05-15 04:52:52 GMT

Here Come the HELOCs: Mortgages, Housing-Debt-to-Income-Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, and Foreclosures in Q1 2026
Mortgage balances barely ticked up, but HELOCs soared.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/14/here-come-the-helocs-mortgages-housing-debt-to-income-ratio-serious-delinquencies-and-foreclosures-in-q1-2026/

2026-05-13 14:12:44 GMT

Producer Price Inflation Explodes as the Services PPI Blows Out on Top of the Energy Price Spike
This is a massive amount of inflation that companies are passing on to each other through much of the economy.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/13/producer-price-inflation-explodes-as-the-services-ppi-blows-out-on-top-of-the-energy-price-spike/

2026-05-13 02:31:36 GMT

Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q1 2026
Americans and their Debts: Student loans that suddenly have to be repaid again fueled overall delinquency rates.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/12/household-debts-debt-to-income-ratio-serious-delinquencies-foreclosures-collections-bankruptcies-in-q1-2026/

2026-05-12 18:05:31 GMT

CPI Inflation Blows Past Fed Rates as Core Services, Gasoline, Electricity, and Food Spike. Fed’s “Real” Rates Are now Negative
The Bureau of Labor Statistics finally corrected part of the CPI distortions in September, October, and November.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-blows-past-fed-rates-as-core-services-gasoline-electricity-and-food-spike-feds-real-rates-are-now-negative/

2026-05-11 19:27:29 GMT

Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes Rises to Highest in 10 Years, Condo Supply Highest since 2012, Sales in Deepfreeze
April was another bad dud for spring selling season as supply continued to pile up.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/11/supply-of-existing-single-family-homes-rises-to-highest-in-10-years-condo-supply-highest-since-2012-sales-in-deepfreeze/

2026-05-09 02:01:05 GMT

Housing Bubble & Bust #1 and #2 as Seen through Employment at Mortgage Lenders and Mortgage Brokers
Nonbank mortgage lenders shed 40% of their jobs this time, and loan brokers 38%. They react to demand, which collapsed.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/08/housing-bubble-bust-1-and-2-as-seen-through-employment-at-mortgage-lenders-and-mortgage-brokers/

2026-05-08 16:33:22 GMT

Weirdest U.S. Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen: Supply of Labor Shrinks Further while Private-Sector Jobs Grow
Federal government sheds more jobs, now down to 1968 levels. This labor market isn’t bad, just weird.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/08/weirdest-u-s-labor-market-ive-ever-seen-supply-of-labor-shrinks-further-while-private-sector-jobs-grow/

2026-05-08 00:46:15 GMT

Prices of Used EVs Spike, from already Lofty Levels, as Gasoline Prices Spike. But Electricity Prices also Soared
High gasoline prices tilt operating costs in favor of EVs. But soaring electricity prices eat into that math.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/07/prices-of-used-evs-spike-from-already-lofty-levels-as-gasoline-prices-spike-but-electricity-prices-also-soared/

2026-05-07 19:31:55 GMT

Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Chip Plants, Powerplants, Office Buildings: Boom one End, Bust the Other
AI investment mania and the second wave of semiconductor plants.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/07/construction-spending-on-data-centers-factories-chip-plants-powerplants-office-buildings-boom-at-one-end-bust-at-the-other/

2026-05-06 17:55:48 GMT

Housing Market’s Crucial “Spring Selling Season” Is in Tatters
For the 4th year in a row: Normal-ish mortgage rates, too-high prices, and the "lock-in effect" from the Fed’s reckless interest-rate repression.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/06/housing-markets-crucial-spring-selling-season-is-in-tatters/

2026-05-05 19:24:07 GMT

New Single-Family Home Prices Drop Further amid Inventory Glut. But Lower Prices Beget Higher Sales
Inventory in the South still sky-high, up 60% from March 2019. But homebuilders understand what it takes: lower prices and big incentives.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/05/new-single-family-home-prices-drop-further-amid-inventory-glut-but-lower-prices-beget-higher-sales/

2026-05-04 18:42:11 GMT

Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats
Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield to 6%?
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/04/bond-market-on-edge-treasury-yields-spike-30-year-to-5-03-mortgage-rates-to-6-52-as-gulf-war-reheats/

2026-05-03 05:05:36 GMT

The US Government sold $723 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation Jumped and Met T-bill Yields
30-year Treasury yield looks like it’s setting up to break out past 5%. A rate cut while inflation is heating up could do it.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/03/the-us-government-sold-723-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-inflation-jumped-and-met-t-bill-yields/

2026-04-30 21:51:23 GMT

Inflation in the Entire US economy Is Rocking and Rolling, and It’s Not Just Energy
The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/30/inflation-in-the-entire-us-economy-is-rocking-and-rolling-and-its-not-just-energy/

2026-04-30 17:06:39 GMT

Without Government Spending & Trade, GDP Rose by 2.5% in Q1, Boosted by AI Investments
Consumer Spending Was OK-ish. Federal government spending spiked back partially after collapsing during the shutdown. Trade worsened.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/30/without-government-spending-trade-gdp-rose-by-2-5-in-q1-boosted-by-ai-investments/

2026-04-29 22:07:29 GMT

Regime Change: Powell, Chair of Mega-QE & “Ample Reserves Regime,” to Be Replaced by Warsh, who Wants a Smaller Balance Sheet
But Powell said he’d stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and truly over,” and promised “to keep a low profile” and support the new chair.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/29/regime-change-powell-chair-of-mega-qe-ample-reserves-regime-to-be-replaced-by-warsh-who-wants-a-smaller-balance-sheet/

2026-04-29 18:31:38 GMT

This Fed Meeting Must Have Been a Hoot. Fed Holds Rates amid 4 Dissents, most since 1992: 1 Dovish, 3 Hawkish
“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other reasons.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/29/this-fed-meeting-must-have-been-a-hoot-fed-holds-rates-amid-4-dissents-most-since-1992-1-dovish-3-hawkish/

2026-04-28 21:42:42 GMT

Housing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords”
These dynamics are now moving in the right direction.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/28/housing-unit-growth-far-outruns-population-growth-vacant-units-on-the-market-and-the-accidental-landlords/

2026-04-27 22:47:25 GMT

Two More Imploded Real-Estate Brokerage Stocks Tie the Knot: REMAX -85% from Peak, Real Brokerage -70%
Been brutal for real-estate stocks plunging from overhyped or meme-stock valuations amid thick losses, lots of debt, and a frozen housing market: Compass, Redfin, Anywhere Real Estate, eXp, and Douglas Elliman.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/27/two-more-imploded-real-estate-brokerage-stocks-tie-the-knot-remax-85-from-peak-real-brokerage-70/

2026-04-27 14:29:28 GMT

THANK YOU 💖 for Your Wonderful Support of WOLF STREET!!! If You Missed the Spring Reminder: Please Donate
Your wonderful support is what keeps Wolf Street open to all, without paywall, to reach the largest possible audience.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/27/thank-you-%f0%9f%92%96-for-your-wonderful-support-of-wolf-street-if-you-missed-the-spring-reminder-please-donate/

2026-04-25 15:48:50 GMT

US Government Sold $524 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. Inflation to Surpass T-Bill Yields. Brutal Bond Math
The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91%.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/25/us-government-sold-524-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-inflation-on-track-to-surpass-t-bill-yields-brutal-bond-math/

2026-04-24 17:09:33 GMT

Senate Confirmation of Warsh, who Wants to Reduce the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Gets Unstuck as DOJ Ends Powell Investigation
Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/24/senate-confirmation-of-warsh-who-wants-to-reduce-the-feds-balance-sheet-gets-unstuck-as-doj-ends-powell-investigation/

2026-04-23 16:06:20 GMT

Hedge-Fund Meme-Stock Short-Squeeze Queen Avis Budget [CAR] Implodes by 72% in 26 Hours
“Stairs up, express elevator down” as hedge funds sock it to each other.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/23/hedge-fund-meme-stock-short-squeeze-queen-avis-budget-car-implodes-by-72-in-26-hours/

2026-04-22 20:15:47 GMT

RTO Languishes Despite Efforts to Force it to Happen, only Minuscule Reduction in WFH since Early 2023
The share of “full paid days worked from home” has been declining by only about 1 percentage point per year.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/22/rto-languishes-despite-efforts-to-force-it-to-happen-only-minuscule-reduction-in-wfh-since-early-2023/

2026-04-21 21:55:40 GMT

As Gasoline Prices Spiked, Did Americans Scrimp at Other Retailers to Buy Gas? Nope, not Americans. Born to Splurge
Even without gas stations, retail sales jumped, powered by ecommerce, auto dealers, general merchandise stores, and other retailers.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/21/as-gasoline-prices-spiked-did-americans-scrimp-at-other-retailers-to-buy-gas-nope-not-americans-born-to-splurge/

2026-04-21 16:17:58 GMT

Pending Home Sales Still in the Deepfreeze, Drop in the West & Midwest, Tick up in the South & Northeast
Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th year of this relentless mess.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/21/pending-home-sales-still-in-the-deepfreeze-drop-in-the-west-midwest-tick-up-in-the-south-northeast/

2026-04-20 23:40:29 GMT

Condo Prices Dropped by 12% to 31% in 31 Bigger Markets. Some Are where They’d Been 20 Years ago, such as Oakland
Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/20/condo-prices-dropped-by-12-to-31-in-31-bigger-markets-some-are-where-theyd-been-20-years-ago-such-as-oakland/

2026-04-18 00:37:24 GMT

Nasdaq up by 60% since Liberation Day Selloff and by 100% in 3 Years. People Are Just Having Fun
While the Nasdaq gained 100%, the economy grew by 15% not adjusted for inflation. Who needs cryptos when stocks are so much fun.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/17/nasdaq-up-by-60-since-liberation-day-selloff-and-by-100-in-3-years-people-are-just-having-fun/

2026-04-17 01:44:06 GMT

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, March 2026
From the “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland where prices plunged over 25% since 2022.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-price-drops-gains-in-33-big-expensive-cities-march-2026/

2026-04-16 01:58:10 GMT

The Largest Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities and the “Basis Trade”: April 2026 Update
Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?”
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/15/the-largest-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-securities-and-the-basis-trade-april-2026-update/

2026-04-15 02:22:13 GMT

Car & Truck Inflation in America: Cost of Vehicle Ownership Soared by 36% since 2020
Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/14/car-truck-inflation-in-america-cost-of-vehicle-ownership-soared-by-36-since-2020/

2026-04-14 18:56:27 GMT

PPI Jumps by over 6% Month-to-Month Annualized for 3rd Month in a Row. Energy Price Spike just Latest Wrinkle
The hit from energy in March was softened as food and services briefly backed off. In prior months, services were the driver.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/14/ppi-jumps-by-over-6-month-to-month-annualized-for-3rd-month-in-a-row-energy-price-spike-just-latest-wrinkle/

2026-04-13 18:27:34 GMT

Single-Family Home Sales Drop Further into Deepfreeze, Supply Hits 10-Year High, Condo Sales Plunge to Record Low
March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/13/single-family-home-sales-drop-further-into-deepfreeze-supply-hits-10-year-high-condo-sales-plunge-to-record-low/

2026-04-11 21:53:59 GMT

Dear Readers, Please Donate to WOLF STREET: Spring 2026 Reminder
Your generous support over the years has kept WOLF STREET free and open to all, without paywall. Thank you!!
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/11/dear-readers-please-donate-to-wolf-street-spring-2026-reminder/

2026-04-11 05:47:12 GMT

US Government Sold $620 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 10-Year Yield Ends at 4.31%, 30-Year Yield at 4.91%
Those yields look too low for what’s coming at the bond market: The next wave of Inflation and a Fed that's comfortable with 3%+ core PCE inflation.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/11/us-government-sold-620-billion-of-treasury-securities-this-week-10-year-yield-ends-at-4-31-30-year-yield-at-4-91/

2026-04-10 18:29:38 GMT

First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation
Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/10/first-wave-of-energy-price-spikes-hit-cpi-inflation/

2026-04-10 03:52:34 GMT

US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/09/us-government-interest-payments-tax-receipts-average-interest-rate-on-the-debt-and-debt-to-gdp-ratio-in-q4-2025/

2026-04-09 21:53:21 GMT

The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak
Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in Q1.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/09/the-once-uber-dovish-ecb-continues-qt-shed-e66-billion-in-march-has-now-shed-50-of-qe-assets-since-peak/

2026-04-09 17:06:17 GMT

Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention
“Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since February 2023.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/09/six-month-core-pce-inflation-still-before-iran-war-jumps-by-most-since-june-2024-the-fed-needs-to-pay-attention/

2026-04-08 21:33:50 GMT

Home Prices in the Largest European Countries Range from Housing Bubbles to a Market that Fell back to 2010
Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/08/home-prices-in-the-largest-european-countries-range-from-housing-bubbles-to-a-market-that-fell-back-to-2010/

2026-04-08 01:44:49 GMT

Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off
These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/07/used-vehicle-wholesale-prices-jumped-thats-how-it-started-in-2020-when-broad-inflation-took-off/

2026-04-07 19:33:50 GMT

Bank of Japan Accelerated QT Further, Started Selling Equity ETFs & J-REITs, Shed 12.6% of its Assets since the Peak
BOJ tries to put a floor under the yen and a lid on inflation through QT, rather than with rate hikes.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/07/bank-of-japan-accelerated-qt-further-started-selling-equity-etfs-j-reits-shed-12-6-of-its-assets-since-the-peak/

2026-04-07 16:33:04 GMT

About those Orders for Durable Goods that Factories in the US Received
The 12-month average, which irons out Boeing’s huge orders, shows the trend: +8.8% year-over-year.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/07/about-those-orders-for-durable-goods-that-factories-in-the-us-received/

2026-04-06 19:31:19 GMT

Japanese Government 10-Year Yield Highest since 1997, Yen at 160 despite Intervention Threats, But Bond Vigilantes Still Dead
Inflation and the deteriorating yen pushed the Bank of Japan into a hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/06/japanese-government-10-year-yield-highest-since-1997-yen-at-160-despite-intervention-threats-but-bond-vigilantes-still-dead/

2026-04-05 01:01:59 GMT

Bond Market Gets Nervous about Rising Inflation, Ballooning Debt, Sees Rate Hike. Mortgage Rates Jump to 6.46%
10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/04/bond-market-gets-nervous-about-rising-inflation-ballooning-debt-sees-rate-hike-mortgage-rates-jump-to-6-46/

2026-04-03 17:49:37 GMT

This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen
Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/03/this-is-the-weirdest-us-labor-market-ive-ever-seen/

2026-04-02 21:59:29 GMT

My Take on Auto Sales in March – Come to Think of it, My Take on the Tough & Ugly US Auto Market
GM, Ford, Honda in a quagmire. Tesla now like GM & Ford. Stellantis & Nissan try to exit a death spiral. Toyota gains. Hyundai-Kia rocks from record to record.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/02/my-take-on-auto-sales-in-march-come-to-think-of-it-my-take-on-the-tough-ugly-us-auto-market/

2026-04-02 16:18:27 GMT

The Massive Unsustainable Trade Deficit in Goods Has Improved Sharply. Tariffs Are Doing their Job
The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/02/the-massive-unsustainable-trade-deficit-in-goods-has-improved-sharply-tariffs-are-doing-their-job/

2026-04-02 03:51:55 GMT

Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets
In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But Orange County lags behind.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/01/homes-for-sale-in-california-rose-to-the-2nd-highest-for-any-march-in-at-least-a-decade-as-demand-withered-the-biggest-markets/

2026-04-01 18:44:16 GMT

Retail Sales Plunged in February. Huge Seasonal Adjustments Caused them to Jump. A Look at Both
But what the heck happened at food & beverage stores?
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/01/retail-sales-plunged-in-february-huge-seasonal-adjustments-caused-them-to-jump-a-look-at-both/

2026-03-31 18:23:26 GMT

Stasis in the US Labor Market: a Peculiar Situation
Total separations drop to the lowest since 2015 beyond the lockdown months.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/31/stasis-in-the-us-labor-market-a-peculiar-situation/

2026-03-31 05:25:50 GMT

Farm Action’s Letter to Congress, Lambasting the Concentration of Fertilizer Makers and its Impact on Prices
“These structural dynamics allow supply disruptions … to translate into rapid, outsized, and sustained price increases.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/31/farm-actions-letter-to-congress-lambasting-the-concentration-of-fertilizer-makers-and-its-impact-on-prices/

2026-03-30 20:26:27 GMT

Humana, Caught up in the Metastasizing Medicare Overbilling Scandal, Enters Our Imploded Stocks
Government crackdown and legal entanglements take all the fun out of the Medicare Advantage plan bonanza.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/30/humana-caught-up-in-the-metastasizing-medicare-overbilling-scandal-enters-our-imploded-stocks/