peruvian_bull
Peruvian Bull

analyst @ PE fintech. finance & monetary economics.

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relay.damus.io

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Last Notes

2024-06-10 21:18:31

here's what everyone might be missing about the Roaring Kitty/DFV story:
Maybe it was NEVER about the money.
RK by now has more money than he ever knows what to do with. even if $GME closes below $20 next week.
He's a regular guy, who is an intelligent and educated investor with a CFA who found a struggling company and went all in.
he exposed more corruption, shenanigans, backroom deals, and overall rot of the system than he could have ever imagined.
with this money he wanted to come back, aligned with the swap cycles, to show us once again that the shorts haven't closed and crime is still happening in real time.
all of fintwit measures your character by your P&L. if he loses money, they'll call him an idiot, a grifter, a loser.
but his intention might be different. maybe he's crazy enough to allow himself to "lose" in the pursuit of the truth about the markets.
what if it's not about money?
maybe it's about sending a message.

2024-05-14 20:13:47

The price of GameStop hit $80 in premarket trading today, and then collapse all the way back down to 39.
This is not retail. Most small investors don’t have access to premarket, trading and disposable income is basically drained from the pandemic stimulus.
There are massive institutions that have a vested interest in GameStop, and they shorted more shares than exist, which created wall of failure to delivers, which occasionally come back in the form of these price spikes .
This is all the more evidence that the Fiat financial system is completely broken, and bitcoin is the solution. https://image.nostr.build/5390f27bfe1802f4e40b8830c9c794f3f41d632626320fa4b1dc757cc741ae0d.jpg

2024-05-05 21:32:42

the japanese government itself is doing a $20T carry trade.
George Saravelos, the head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, examined a combined balance sheet of the Japanese government, encompassing the government-managed pension fund GPIF, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and state-owned banks. He examined the asset and liability composition of Japan's $20 trillion debt.
basically this debt is a giant carry trade that involves borrowing yen at the zero bound and buying assets in higher-yielding currencies.
but this means that the government itself is TRAPPED.
"If the central bank raises rates the government will have to start paying money to all the banks and the carry trade's profitability will quickly start unwinding," Deutsche analysts said.
This would result in higher interest payments on bank reserves and a fall in the value of government bonds, along with a reduction in the value of government assets in an environment of rising interest rates.
Potentially causing a financial crisis in Japan on the same level as 2008.
Thus, they can't really afford for their carry trade to blow up in their face. So, they must keep it on, slowly whittling away at their currency.
The BoJ will do Yenterventions to slow the fall, but they'll have to let it fall eventually. https://image.nostr.build/057edf4af48a1c0bef5137bd69f0410af8310226aac3d8505b3201e2fd7fd779.jpg

2024-05-02 17:32:09

Last night we had our second Yentervention
At this rate their going to burn through the capital account quickly, they may have five or six more interventions of this size left https://image.nostr.build/ae4f94e18d854b3912caa9f62e4bc145cbf2d503d62cb5d31ca2ae18c31f7556.jpg

2024-04-27 18:33:34

What an absolute chad! Hahaha #note17mx…eswh

2024-04-27 06:51:40

this is it. we're moving to a new stage of the Endgame.
Japanese Yen ripping through barriers like paper, passing each level where the BoJ intervened before. The slow motion meltdown has finally begun to accelerate, and authorities are powerless to stop the decline, unless they want to dump their Treasuries.
Yellen probably on the phone with them tonight, warning dire consequences if they put their finger on the button to defend their currency. Japanese PM Kishida met with Biden this month, smiling on the surface, but pain underneath.
He knows, as Kuroda does, the terrible truth:
They are TRAPPED.
With debt to GDP at an eye-watering 263%, they can't afford to normalize rates with the Fed. Since they have to maintain low rates, a massive carry trade opens up, bolstering USD and pulling JPY down consistently. The longer the Fed keeps rates high the worse this blows out. News of a hot inflation in the US this morning made things worse, as now Powell has more justification for "higher for longer".
This means more pain ahead for the Asian behemoth.
In the US, massive 50% downside miss on GDP paired with hot PCE means stagflation is returning. With government interest expense at all time highs and trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, this means more debt growth as we accelerate across the Monetary Event Horizon.
The walls are beginning to close in.
Attacks on Bitcoin have escalated, first with Feds arresting the developers of Samourai Wallet. Next Phoenix Wallet pulls their app from Appstore, and now DTCC is assigning 100% haircut to all crypto assets.
They're coming for the non-KYC wallets first. Then the nodes. Then self-custody.
Your privacy is at stake. Your future is at stake.
The truth is, they depend on us to keep the whole charade going. We man the barricades of the dying fiat monetary system. Without us working for their money, they have nothing to control us with.
"Look, the people you are after are the people you depend on. We cook your meals, we haul your trash, we connect your calls, we drive your ambulances. We guard you while you sleep. Do not... fuck with us." -Tyler Durden https://image.nostr.build/ec93e4c30decc93d926a9b0968a2cb253d96b2beafe2004798113ef506b73de8.jpg

2024-04-26 19:30:13

Also money markets are being drained at a record pace https://image.nostr.build/e7baa074d9d5f26db54049a2c55cbfe3020ed49716fff62ea8b59dc938ac00f4.jpg

2024-04-26 07:03:00

The real Lehman Bros is Japan

2024-04-26 07:02:48

Not even a day after breaking 155, the yen breaks 156!!! https://image.nostr.build/41e3d6f9650ea86e95813acb554713d1a29f3cb811302f6aa0d502e7e50d002c.jpg

2024-04-24 05:47:27

FINANCIAL GRAVITY:
If we divide the performance of the S&P 500 by the Fed’s Balance Sheet since the GFC, the LINE IS FLAT.
This means that there has been basically NO REAL growth in stock prices since 2008- with the only rise in prices due to money printing.
The correlation coefficient between central bank quantitative easing and the price of stock indexes is nearly 1.
The money printed by the Fed, because of the structure of the Open Market Operations, is plugged directly into the Treasury markets, and from there, flows into equities and derivatives.
This has served to primarily enrich the asset owners, financial institutions, and wealthy elites who own the majority of the stock market anyways.
The entire rally has been an illusion, financed by the Fed and maintained through QE.
In the black expanse of space, many things are not what they seem. https://image.nostr.build/510f645af3a6c1d1da30f75a91ce18cec3708fea5d3fb5dc258587559606b63f.jpg

2024-03-02 01:59:46

- reply

Not sure yet! But just wrote a piece about it on my sub stack if you’re interested in taking a read

2024-02-01 16:08:02

Reverse repo is going to be completely drained by the end of March! https://image.nostr.build/3adb9a13a0f1661c543715a818f427958f282bdfb07207d09ffb06258bcfb6e4.jpg

2024-01-27 23:29:58

You will use Fed liquidity programs whether you like it or not!! https://image.nostr.build/01fb3eb9bac583b7981ba52a97838026396e64dd4d61b70078c5b850aa82d18a.jpg

2024-01-13 21:57:24

The biggest weapons against humanity are financial

2024-01-05 21:25:59

Is the US government manipulating payroll numbers? https://image.nostr.build/eb52bd985cc909fa4841da4eee3216091a6f0a3c15f547d57d32b2753d94036f.jpg

2023-12-09 19:59:34

Chinese real estate is in serious trouble https://image.nostr.build/31451aa235c6e7a57860c381687064d2cef940e4102a825ffc7a0e39b8eb1ef2.png

2023-12-07 16:40:07

Scan your eyeballs to fight the Terrorists! ™️ https://image.nostr.build/9693870a7b15b078abe96b109b6cf44bdf1c45e23f3b8c6bedcd2aa207948d33.jpg

2023-12-01 18:42:05

Debt spiral gonna go crazy

2023-11-30 19:13:48

Global Net Liquidity bottomed in September 2022
Equity markets are directly tied to central bank balance sheets https://image.nostr.build/9f649a8b27b140ed3d273e651826cd3ea9d0426125abf2d9866949cb53f10489.jpg

2023-11-26 19:38:03

Brought to you by the Experts https://image.nostr.build/6d8773c4e3452c5f8a8cbc7c8ff9d05d4bc00180aa135d410f3c1fd1cbc3c9b6.jpg

2023-11-22 23:19:37

New post on Substack ⚡️
https://t.co/5G2iNBb3uZ

2023-11-18 23:47:57

It’s been insolvent for years now, it just hasn’t been realized yet https://image.nostr.build/1d167c4e7e5df21ec85c63af2be0471d2f4c161db1bccc00662aab4be01c3854.jpg

2023-11-13 00:08:47

Taylor rule says Fed Funds rate should be above 6% right now https://image.nostr.build/5567b54ed83df0678bab6610201aff833155e3083c9dd55154e2ab86e723d45a.jpg

2023-11-04 01:34:09

- reply

Yeah

2023-11-02 19:58:03

I am going to be speaking at the Adopting Bitcoin conference in El Salvador 👊
Will try to post the presentation for you all to view

2023-09-24 00:34:56

On the carnivore diet right now.
It's life changing

2023-07-07 18:12:26

The bond market is signalling that something is very wrong...
2 year yield highest since 2007

2023-05-24 01:58:21

The Treasury is almost out of cash.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches.
https://i.imgur.com/440wCbJ.jpg

2023-05-24 01:57:20

- reply

I will. Life has been insane.

2023-05-20 05:25:12

The current monetary system is dying.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches.