Houston

Ex-TradFi trader. Master of crayons. 🖍️ In the game of trading crypto for more Bitcoin. 💸 Writing about what I observe, think and trade. 🔭

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nprofile1qqspz3kqmtlmyh9qdgn63unzgy5kx4cpqpc94yupehf5gy8p76k9encpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsdeekk0

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npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33

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Last Notes

2025-09-26 17:43:36 GMT

While others panic in market chaos you should be mapping entries.
The crowd sells bottoms and buys tops—predictable as gravity.
Volatility isn't risk—it's the transfer of assets from the emotional to the prepared.

2025-08-30 21:16:19 GMT

Most market trends are lagging indicators, not predictors.
By the time most notice a pattern, the advantage is gone.
I started tracking inflection points before consensus forms.
Look for structural shifts in data that others dismiss as noise—that's where the asymmetric returns hide.
While others chase yesterday's momentum, quietly build positions at tomorrow's fault lines.

2025-06-30 21:40:52 GMT

Edge comes from introspection, not consensus.
While everyone's networking and polling opinions, you're thinking alone.
That's where asymmetry lives.

2025-06-27 20:30:55 GMT

Early days are for maximizing variance, not minimizing it.
Everyone optimizes for routine when they should optimize for upside.
The safe path teaches you to be comfortable and employable.

2025-06-26 15:01:46 GMT

Your best moves happen when no one's watching.
Real edge comes from stepping away from the noise, not diving deeper into it.
While everyone's polling the group chat, you're alone with the actual problem.
That's where differentiation lives.

2025-06-26 01:41:55 GMT

When your process fails, don't patch it.
Study why it collapsed.
Then rebuild from the lesson, not the wreckage.
That's the difference between incremental tweaks and structural advantage.

2025-06-25 02:02:56 GMT

- reply

The shitcoin season has already started. This cycle’s shitcoins are the Bitcoin treasury companies.

2025-06-25 01:23:46 GMT

Rote practices are other people's solutions to other people's problems.
Your process is built from your constraints, your data, your failures.
Every time you copy a framework, you inherit their blind spots and skip your own learning.
The operators who win build systems that fit their specific game.
Not because they're contrarian, but because generic solutions produce generic results.
Your edge comes from solving your exact problem in your exact way.

2025-06-24 15:02:23 GMT

Early days force you to think in failure modes, not comfort zones.
Routine kills that edge.

2025-06-24 01:48:46 GMT

- reply

Hope you’re enjoying the Summer so far. 😄

2025-06-23 22:10:32 GMT

The loudest voices online are usually the least profitable offline.
If they're loud they're selling you something.
Real operators don't announce, they execute quietly and let results speak.

2025-06-23 15:55:24 GMT

I would stop taking advice from people whose systems I wouldn't steal.

2025-06-23 00:27:42 GMT

The only opinions I trust are tested by price and process.
Everything else is just expensive noise.

2025-06-22 21:28:16 GMT

Best practices are other people's solutions to other people's problems.
They codify what worked once, somewhere else, under different constraints.
Independent process means building your own map from your actual data, advantages, and constraints.
You iterate on your process, not someone else's playbook.
The market rewards originality of execution, not compliance with consensus.
While competitors copy yesterday's winning moves, you're building tomorrow's advantage.
Best practices make you predictable.
Independent process makes you unreachable.

2025-06-22 16:26:28 GMT

Best practices are averages designed for masses.
Your process is a weapon built for your constraints.
Every cycle I watch operators copy frameworks that worked for different problems, different markets, different people.
Meanwhile the ones who built their own system from first principles are quietly eating everyone's lunch.
The meta-game isn't learning best practices.
It's building the process that generates your own.

2024-11-04 22:04:21 GMT

🚨 New Substack post just dropped! 🚨
With election day around the corner, I'm breaking down key market charts, potential volatility, and trading opportunities you don’t want to miss. 📊📈
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/trading-the-us-elections?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2024-05-09 18:38:58 GMT

Another week has passed, and the Bitcoin/ crypto markets continue to trade within a tight range, lacking a significant catalyst to break out.
Let's dive into the current dynamics and some of the failed narratives.
https://m.primal.net/IEzl.png
https://houstonwehaveaprob.substack.com/p/market-musings-quiet-and-rangebound?r=2tki10

2024-04-29 19:12:22 GMT

Here's my take on people trying to put real estate on the blockchain. 🤣
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/the-problem-with-the-real-world?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2024-04-26 18:31:08 GMT

- reply

Bravo ser. 😂

2024-04-23 23:21:03 GMT

- reply

Aqua and Fedi Bravo. 👍🏻

2024-04-22 12:24:42 GMT

gm - We made it past the Halving without a sell-off!
I've dusted off my price action charts and crayons for $BTCUSD. - let's see where we go from here. 🖍️
Market Musings - Charting the Course: Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis Post-Halving
https://m.primal.net/HyeK.png

2024-04-18 18:50:42 GMT

📢 Curious about the "Sell in May" effect and #Bitcoin? 🤔
There are a lot of bad takes so I've crunched the numbers and here are the key takeaways from my analysis:
1️⃣ Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic, the "Sell in May" effect has emerged as a winning strategy 4 consecutive years in a row. 📈💪
2️⃣ Interestingly, during years with a Bitcoin Halving, the "Sell in May" effect doesn't seem to have the same impact. . 🪙📊
3️⃣ Surprisingly, there's no clear and consistent pattern indicating that the "Sell in May" effect is more pronounced during bear market cycles for Bitcoin. It's not a foolproof strategy in every market condition. 🐻📉
For a deep dive into these findings and even access to the code for running the analysis yourself, check out the article here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/bitcoins-sell-in-may-playbook-is?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2024-04-18 18:47:50 GMT

- reply

I think it may be as well. 👍

2024-04-18 13:21:28 GMT

Will the Bitcoin halving be a sell-the-news event? 🟢🔴
Right now on Manifold it's pretty evenly split.
Comment on your opinion! 🙏
https://manifold.markets/HoustonxMTL/will-bitcoin-btcusd-close-green-or?r=SG91c3RvbnhNVEw
$BTCUSD

2024-04-15 16:04:25 GMT

New post on the substack - Will the Bitcoin Halving be a sell-the-news event?
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/all-eyes-on-the-bitcoin-halving?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
https://image.nostr.build/134d4505bf2a19c813e74c75c274209f3e2a0bc1034aa80352399a7b3ad21030.jpg

2024-04-04 21:25:40 GMT

Epic Spring snowstorm. 🌨️
#montreal
https://m.primal.net/HrRN.jpg

2023-10-24 15:48:54 GMT

Finally, the monthly inside bar and up continues to play out so while we may see some profit-taking in the short term the best course of action remains to look at dips as buying opportunities for trend continuation.
https://m.primal.net/HOWj.png
#bitcoin

2023-10-24 15:48:27 GMT

On the upside, we have the 38547 area which has some structure that is likely to be tested if we can break upwards.
https://m.primal.net/HOWh.png

2023-10-24 15:48:02 GMT

So this is how I would draw the current BF on #BTC with some poor market structure around the 30000 area which is a reasonable area for a re-test.
https://m.primal.net/HOWg.png

2023-10-24 15:47:38 GMT

Interestingly, the last time we had a momo-up on $BTC on the 3M chart was in Q4 2015, making that period the most analogous to our current cycle.
https://m.primal.net/HOWf.png

2023-10-24 15:47:11 GMT

#Bitcoin chart update.
$BTC goes momo-up on the quarterly.
This is not an ideal scenario as it leaves behind some weak market structure that tends to get retested.
Anyone who chased the last couple of sessions will likely find themselves shortly underwater.
https://m.primal.net/HOWe.png

2023-10-24 14:54:16 GMT

Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things.
#bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HOWV.png

2023-10-24 14:45:13 GMT

How it started, how it's going YTD.
The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out.
#Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HOWM.png

2023-10-23 15:24:20 GMT

Watch $BTC last quarter's pivots carefully.
Will #Bitcoin break last quarter's high and go momo up?
Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024?
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/w/wtjXDjR0.png
#trading

2023-10-23 15:07:10 GMT

VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bkvpIYyT.png
Times like this are notable.
The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn't hold on to the gains.
Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/vivygTTl.png
It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities.
So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately?
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/IvQrW2EA.png
Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?

2023-10-23 13:50:49 GMT

Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down.
USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OjPXXNIK.png
What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥
https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m

2023-10-16 13:40:21 GMT

The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1711841625431789762?s=20

2023-10-16 13:24:35 GMT

$BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play.
We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I'm watching to fill.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/Rl9A71Fd.png

2023-10-16 13:24:07 GMT

gm
$BTC seasonality continues to play out as noted previously, so I hope you loaded the boat on this dip.
Remember, when you see the crowd all leaning on one side of the boat, you need to lean the other way.
https://i.imgur.com/shml9Dw.png
#trading #bitcoin

2023-10-11 12:55:35 GMT

As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅
Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅
The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈
https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc
Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal.
A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ABouxUvr.png
#Bitcoin #trading

2023-10-09 17:20:13 GMT

- reply

Nice episode Stephan. 👍
One part that wasn't 100% clear to me is around the counterparty risk associated with the premiums collected from the market maker - Calypso?
When I sell a covered call option on Atomic Finance, where does the premium that the buyer pays me go? Is it locked in the DLC along with the collateral, or is it held somewhere else?

2023-10-06 12:59:47 GMT

PSA -
Markets don't bottom on Fridays. 📉

2023-10-06 12:58:08 GMT

NFP #'s came in way too hot. 🔥
It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a slowdown in rate hikes if it continues its "data-dependent" stance.
Look at the reaction on the US 10 year yields.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bz2GNoSA.png

2023-10-03 18:11:00 GMT

Thanks for playing along.
$SPY $VIX
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4ExjazEu.png

2023-10-03 14:58:15 GMT

So you thought it was going to be up-only Uptober? Think again.
Looking back at the average weekly returns for $BTC since 2010, week 40 has traditionally been a weak week.
So if you subscribe to seasonality, this week should mark the local bottom.
If you're a more active trader, you can start looking for bottoming formations that, if they work, will provide good asymmetric upside.
https://m.primal.net/HMdQ.png
#trading #Bitcoin

2023-10-02 14:19:43 GMT

- reply

🤣

2023-10-02 13:57:18 GMT

By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC.
https://image.nostr.build/ee37d6fc7c7503fee5417d323017198540ca815e21a102ec12796c86f219e044.jpg
An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive?
Was the following month and the rest of the year positive?
Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns.
After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October.
All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December.
So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.
https://image.nostr.build/99443a09b7dba87aca009a93b728038d490f330fd74dc92c3d0d2bb68ccef3d1.png

2023-10-02 13:11:05 GMT

$BTC has some poor market structure in the 28970-29100 area from the previous selloff that is likely to be retested.
Any shorts still holding will have seen their profits evaporate and will likely throw in the towel at this point.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LEQFNvM7.png
#BTC #trading

2023-09-29 16:26:34 GMT

gm
Here's today's PSA.
Markets don't bottom on Fridays.

2023-09-27 18:07:03 GMT

- reply

Reformed or let's say evolved stratter. 😁
Price action is one of the tools in the toolbox. 🛠️

2023-09-27 18:01:18 GMT

We're in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉
$VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion.
Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area.
$SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it's run from 415-459.
$SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420.
#trading
https://image.nostr.build/e207151009dcc586a8551462d17c486a535d657fbe75f17c0a3ab5954165a56c.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/8ddbf69b423bb5ad4a753873297c175185cc9e0e3bd314f0cb73cb8581105f2f.png

2023-09-26 15:59:45 GMT

This is how I would draw the current BF playing out on $VIX.
There will be time to fade vol - just wait for some vol sellers to be put on stretchers first.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/Lu3HfnrP.png

2023-09-26 13:47:42 GMT

- reply

lnbc10u1pj39c8npp5ue84rfxen2phskfctl2525gn228hcf8zru6z8t9yhfdwlk5dm3hsdq5g9kxy7fqd9h8vmmfvdjscqzzsxqyz5vqsp5fj7tt6egjdaprzrcfrvqpkxk4hwrryw7g87wd8x4qjp7vppe3k3q9qyyssq9yda52qprpw0y382rs4wv65temegr0g3j2psftturz8q9nen86f9rly6z2fl5y5nam4ucyc7jus5lqn9l2sftrpmwsmg3egym2zlvvcpcnu625

2023-09-26 13:25:24 GMT

gm
Here's today's PSA.
Risk off continues - $JNK and $HYG have both gone outside-inside month and down.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LuJBJlir.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/ckampl79.png
This has been on the radar for some time and is now confirmed.
Act accordingly.
https://primal.net/e/note1ecvx93ajhp6q0jewxaz6pg2c48sx4zxvnfyve0mjjs569pdvqpcq2kumsu

2023-09-26 13:03:50 GMT

https://image.nostr.build/42e266edf160175fecf4e60983c853e484e00c4f30d614a7bf752a270e3d542e.png

2023-09-25 15:36:27 GMT

- reply

When it comes to studying price, it's important to recognize that price oscillates between periods of consolidation and expansion.
As it relates specifically to $VIX, it's good to understand that there is a huge cottage industry of traders who run a gamut of volatility selling strategies that are akin to picking up pennies in front of a train.
Most of the time these options sellers pick up those proverbial pennies, but there are those periods when volatility does not revert and these traders get run over.
In this situation, when I use the term range expansion, I am describing 2 scenarios.
1 - $VIX is now trading above and through its average monthly range (light blue line).
This does not occur often, but you can see on the chart that when $VIX closes above this monthly range, it tends to lead to further price expansion.
2 - Range expansion also describes a sequence of price action involving broadening formations (shown in red) where price moves from one side of the range to the other. TLDR - The markets are an auction mechanism that seeks liquidity aka stops, which is why we often experience periods of higher highs and lower lows.

2023-09-25 14:22:23 GMT

Hold on to your top hats, things are about to get bumpy.
$VIX range expansion underway.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/gbYALgMV.png

2023-09-25 14:01:40 GMT

Watch out - USDJPY heading for multi-year highs.
Remember that of all the G10 nations, Japan is furthest along the path of monetary experimentation.
Daily - https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YC2XxMmZ.png
3 x outside-inside and break to the upside.
The triple outside bar is noteworthy as we can now certainly expect a range extension.
Weekly -https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fvULYpA1.png
The weekly chart shows a continuation of the momo up condition. We will see how long this condition will last.
Putting this out there as a possibility - but a re-test of the 200 pivot is a long term possibility and would likely be the result of a very large macro event.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/m/m7GTnXm1.png

2023-09-22 13:32:31 GMT

GM
Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-09-21 15:32:49 GMT

$JNK $HYG update
You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk.
They are both closing in on going outside month and down. 🔻
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FAE9iBqJ.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0KgEt16C.png
There are still 8 days remaining in the month and quarter. Will we trigger before the end of the month and quarter? Keep watching carefully. 👀
https://iris.to/note1xtmcxqs0h0psjccnxfak9ecl2pl57p9tya2875qrnjqk7s6c5stsgz4jnc

2023-09-21 13:44:03 GMT

$TLT - long bond update.
$TLT broke below last year's lows.
https://image.nostr.build/bad642bbda7609b021f78551e988c218522577832cdad8f6489eefa02883f796.png
Wild to see $TLT retrace all the way back to 2006 levels.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/Ym4dEWcB.png
______
I posted the following over a month ago:
https://iris.to/note1pn500p47g69779zzd8pg6uk64hn70s2dnlhtzmnwg88dkj9ur27stafx5a

2023-09-20 18:20:14 GMT

Breakout.
The US 2 year yield is trading at 5.12.
Highest levels since 2006.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YwjepHmD.png

2023-09-20 12:17:32 GMT

Kaching - thanks for playing. 🎰💸
Taking some profits here on the $ETHBTC trade before FOMC this afternoon.
There's more downside possible but taking some chips off the table.
#trading #btc #eth
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3JgvLwcE.png

2023-09-12 14:06:15 GMT

$ETHBTC update.
The long $BTC, short $ETH trade continues to play out. 💸
https://image.nostr.build/1992b774fd48980e2b011f83ce9fe3a26b05e27cfea52827d22163197959f906.png
https://iris.to/note1gwqn2qc5tkl7v50wmw7ej6v6tlwj9crzw8uhlh95ntjl6prxxp4q4y9v0m

2023-09-11 15:27:40 GMT

Markets always move slower than you want, but faster than you expect.

2023-09-11 14:56:02 GMT

Top of the morning. ☕
1370 here we come.
Currently short a bunch of shitcoins and waiting to see how the market reacts to the macro news on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the potential supply coming from FTX.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/ltJQ2z0S.png

2023-09-08 15:51:40 GMT

Pay attention.
The USDJPY and USDCNH are on the verge of new cycle highs.
Say hello to the USD wrecking ball. 💣
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/EeaZ1Neo.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ArsEiA5t.png

2023-09-08 13:34:04 GMT

- reply

I'm pointing out the next significant pivot.
17.30 marks the outside bar high.
Outside bars are fractal broadening formations .
So that pivot both attracts and repels - if we trade close we will likely trade to and through that pivot.

2023-09-07 13:35:13 GMT

Not enough people are talking about it.
The high-yield bond ETFs $JNK and $HYG are both trading outside-inside on the monthly chart and consolidating at the precipice.
If we see a break of last month's outside bar to the downside, watch out. 👀
This means that the market is expecting more defaults or lower recoveries from junk bonds, which could be caused by factors such as higher interest rates, a worsening economy, lower earnings, or more volatility, and drive investors into safer risk assets. 📈📉
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OnV4mqZU.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DmAAjGcW.png

2023-09-07 13:09:14 GMT

https://image.nostr.build/322af2429fd3363b15548dc731d9a207ace710659260ecb09416b1f7dbbb23d3.jpg

2023-09-07 13:03:39 GMT

Alright $VIX reclaimed the 15.45 level.
Now watch to see if we reclaim the 17.30 pivots.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/7/7ajATOJA.png

2023-09-06 18:33:17 GMT

A truly fascinating sequence of price action is unfolding.
On the daily chart we are trading within the range defined by the big down bar that was formed on August 17th.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5ZHL3tRO.png
To the layman's eye, it looks like we are just chopping around, but we are actually trading at an inflection point that is precipitating a big price move.
One way the chop is expressed in the price action is as a series of widening formations with higher highs and lower lows, which is kryptonite for traders using horizontal levels or previous pivots for stop losses.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/krCV1Niw.png
What usually precedes big moves are choppy periods that chop up the majority of traders who are jockeying for the next move but eventually capitulate before the big move happens. Once the move is finally underway, those left behind are forced to chase the price or fear missing out on the price action they so desperately wanted to be ahead of.
Finally, take a look at the 1628 pivot. Notice how we've been chopping around this level?
Zoom out to the 3M chart and you can see that 1628 is the reversal pivot on the quarterly chart - which has become a battleground for buyers and sellers.
When the 1628 pivot gives way, we should see much lower prices.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/HEckmDRR.png
The major timeframes are all trading 🔴 so my expectation is that this period of consolidation will eventually resolve to the downside and we visit the 1370 pivot as I have noted previously on my feed.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fYaTrMrc.png
$BTC is trading in a very similar structure to $ETH, so I expect both $BTC and $ETH to resolve the consolidation in a similar manner.
#BTC #ETH #trading #plebchain

2023-09-06 17:52:35 GMT

As noted last week, the $VIX reversed and is now inching its way back up and tagged the 15 handle.
Expect some more volatility ahead as we come back through the range.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3UmBhOu8.png
https://iris.to/note1g08rd2q7wfeeas99mqjuclry8qn4m8ngg8rqx4xqyyjyraw6s64q6kf6yp

2023-08-31 15:37:34 GMT

The $VIX is setting up for a snapback rally and could be setting the stage for a volatile September.
#trading #plebchain
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f8d40a158a0bc4f358c2839e6f211cb5717b97cad13213fa6b60602578234827.png

2023-08-31 15:15:52 GMT

https://cdn.nostr.build/i/4b0058563145775f92d5f7451fea78c9794ccbbb437351c0969bdcfcf93ade14.jpg

2023-08-31 14:41:41 GMT

Looks like Ideogram has made some serious progress in cracking the AI text-generating code.
https://ideogram.ai/api/images/direct/ZexKKAgiTRqX_gt89btqfg
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/25890926424339ef43cbbbaece7f02a540b87c867264e5c77029c5e1b50411af.jpg

2023-08-31 13:12:18 GMT

If the US 10 YY breaks over yesterday's high then the 4.206 is the next likely pivot in play.
Pay attention to what this could mean for the broader market if the market follows this pivot.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/S3JpsxuU.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/D9G7w4tj.png

2023-08-30 18:50:05 GMT

So how did buying that local top on $BTC go? 🤣
Now home gamers - just imagine if you had gone short.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/1/14PcK3S2.png
https://iris.to/note1ftwzst0h9hm2fmtnv2dnlffcr4ck9x00v97k4q2urkxzjdw47vfq3vueks
#Bitcoin #Trading #BTC #plebchain

2023-08-30 14:50:36 GMT

All eyes on the #jobs report tomorrow. 👀
The US 2 and 10-year yields have retraced their recent upward thrust and this could be the moment buyers step back in.
If the jobs report comes in strong, we could see yields push back up. #economy #trading #plebchain
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OrCZ02xT.png

2023-08-30 14:37:32 GMT

- reply

This is the way.

2023-08-29 20:47:33 GMT

Call it a slow-motion rug pull. 🦥🐌
Over 170 years ago in January of 1862, United States representative from Ohio, George Pendleton, took the floor and declared that if the members of Congress were to disengage money’s material moorings in gold and silver, they would -
https://i.imgur.com/TnhbDqn.png
From "The Money Plot" by F. Kaufman (2020)

2023-08-29 18:36:53 GMT

I’m about half way through The Money Plot from F. Kaufman.
So far it’s been pretty wide recounting of the history and use case of money and has some novel stories I haven’t read elsewhere.
I will post a thorough review when I’m done. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/407d369043691ffed16384134b9b25691aaec2267431752532ac1079bbed231e.jpg

2023-08-29 17:57:18 GMT

Want to see something cool? 👀
So where did today's big spike in $BTC take us?
The price went right up to and tested the lower BF trendline that I posted back on August 16th.
One of the most flawed mental models is that price trades in horizontal support/resistance levels.
The markets are always looking for liquidity, which is why you will ALWAYS see higher highs and lower lows.
#bitcoin #BTC #trading #plebchain
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/72308007180ae995a3e0cfe5b3f4b0f1cce3a9c2ef5bcd151ed51ab0e088ba8d.png
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/8f790c2b636bc29db9964459659619fba4c7aa1cb070191d8f6fd5dc8c6027a7.png

2023-08-29 17:45:29 GMT

Always some poor soul buying the breakout at the local top. 😓
#BTC #trading #plebchain
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DkhJVOHe.png

2023-08-29 16:53:10 GMT

I was wondering how the FOMO Momo up condition on the US 10YY would be extinguished.
This is how FOMO rallies end.
Now i'm watching to see how the US 2 and 10 close out month and set up into September.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LLUA3th4.png

2023-08-29 16:49:06 GMT

I'm seeing a lot of FOMO across markets - we're setting up for some late longs to get washed out. 🌊🚽

2023-08-29 16:46:32 GMT

$ETHBTC update
We have ourselves a decent BF playing out and have a clear target near the bottom trendline.
Remember that price drives narratives, so as the price action unfolds, watch for the narratives that get concocted along the way.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/N5Hqvgai.png

2023-08-29 16:40:21 GMT

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My bleeding eyes - ser, this is a chart crime.
Please show axis and scale. 📈📉

2023-08-29 15:53:06 GMT

Don't be fooled into chasing the price here.
A lot of poor market structure is being left behind, so we are likely to retest the breakout area for liquidity.

2023-08-28 13:24:14 GMT

gm
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9768a816db3f1956c554cb149d13213e4aaa848280b36f512498081e4b2d3a66.jpg

2023-08-25 17:31:47 GMT

Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-08-25 14:36:34 GMT

US 2-year yields about to make new cycle highs.
Here comes the US dollar wrecking ball. 💣
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/56p8SxaG.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/Dd3BkGcO.png

2023-08-24 12:44:18 GMT

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🤞

2023-08-23 18:35:31 GMT

Here's one of my all-time favorite trading quotes from a not-so-well-known book called Phantom of the Pits.
"The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad."

2023-08-23 15:03:24 GMT

I hope you had the chance to smash buy some $BTC.
$BTC gave the "second mouse gets the cheese" entry.
25800 was yesterday's daily reversal pivot on Binance and we retested that level to the tick this morning.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/okHUPQMM.png
The Fed is holed up in Jackson Hole and while it has often been a nothing burger in summer's past, all media journalists are waiting with bated breath for Powell to put the proverbial foot in his mouth so be on the lookout for that possibility.
#BTC #trading
Here's my current book -
https://i.imgur.com/MtfhfjX.png

2023-08-23 14:46:57 GMT

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🤞

2023-08-23 01:15:39 GMT

I took profits on all my shorts and started nibbling away at the longs. 💰
We had the proverbial flush then vacuum followed by buyers stepping in.
If you've been following along then you know that I've been short from much higher levels and in the short to medium term I think the better R:R skews to the upside.
My younger trading self would often be greedy or fearful to exit winning positions, but years of repetition have made me comfortable with tactical exits because I know my method will allow me to get back into the trade should price action continue to trend.
#BTC #trading
https://i.imgur.com/lsmywt0.png

2023-08-22 20:34:53 GMT

$ETH update -
The BF posted earlier on $ETH is still unfolding, which brings the 1400 area into play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KFCheaIv.png
https://iris.to/note1qk39cxyjthv3uzh9x7wn5ekp5xn47xhfhlj40aqufaqtyu5xyx2s5sumdy
#ETH #trading

2023-08-22 16:37:10 GMT

Smoked chicken wings with salsa verde. 😋 https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9a77a92709ad4bc6e4c3451559b58c3d6aa22588aa87b1699189973a4162e7b9.jpg

2023-08-22 16:16:43 GMT

Still net short and waiting for breadth to get extended before I cover.
https://i.imgur.com/hCKECML.png