woonomic
Willy Woo

https://charts.woobull.com/

#Bitcoin analyst.

Public Key

npub1clwvhf87gsn20v02ywd9vda6gratnp3v3jrtxvc0ue0f7en5xhmq3xxhme

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsv0hxt5nlygf48k84z8xjkx7ayp74esckgep4nxv87vh5lve6rtaspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsys4ua6

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1clwvhf87gsn20v02ywd9vda6gratnp3v3jrtxvc0ue0f7en5xhmq3xxhme

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Last Notes

2024-09-03 03:50:57 GMT

Just finishing up our summer stay in Vancouver. Thanks for all the zaps, I got the chance to spend them all due to the great merchant adoption in this city.
Props to the CoinOS team for helping make that happen.

2024-07-17 03:32:54 GMT

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Child of the 70s I see.

2024-06-05 08:37:52 GMT

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We shouldn’t care.
We should care who builds the hyperloops and matter transport beams. Assuming people value their most scarce asset - time.

2023-10-08 05:01:24 GMT

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Two medium orders plus coffee.

2023-10-08 04:59:55 GMT

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We were lucky in that we took direct flights from HK and our friends arranged pickup from airport including the ferry ride. Decent mix of options from backpackers to high road lux resorts, will be fam friendly or not depending on where you stay.

2023-10-06 03:00:03 GMT

Checking out Boracay, the Bitcoin island. Breakfast paid by sats that were zapped my way! Thank you Nostr. https://image.nostr.build/af19212d6aa537c53139171ee6a34f9ba17774382bc77b8acb1ef36bc719a242.jpg

2023-07-06 17:27:54 GMT

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I think voice social media (Clubhouse, Airchat) is the current arc of new innovation.
Voice lends itself to “many to many” (not broadcast like video), yet solves the toxicity / flame war issue found in text only.

2023-06-05 13:33:17 GMT

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It’s like writing for Coindesk / Bitcoin Magazine / Kraken, except for not having a boss and being paid in sats.
Don’t forget to hook up your account with Wallet of Satoshi so you can get zapped some sats.

2023-06-03 06:23:52 GMT

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I have memories of HK in the late 80s. It was super gritty. Stinky smells wafting in the humid air, sneezing into a tissue would reveal soot you breathed in, seas of people. It’s much cleaner now. And less people on the streets, despite an increase in population, I think that’s the impact of the Internet.

2023-05-16 23:41:35 GMT

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Yes if you are doing it right, because you should use a re-shipping service as an extra layer of opsec.

2023-05-14 07:56:07 GMT

The scarcity of gold is about to change. #Bitcoin.
Really, it's a race to develop space mining tech, the cost to orbit is already becoming feasible.
References:
[1] $500-$1000 per kg to LEO
https://space.com/2032-asteroid-mining-key-space-economy.html
[2] cost to LEO chart
https://futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm
[3] Starship $10/kg to LEO
https://wccftech.com/elon-musk-starship-launch-cost-reiterate/
https://void.cat/d/B6joBadcpDoRwhXprbvtBa.webp

2023-05-14 02:08:37 GMT

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Thanks. Good to be here.

2023-05-14 00:27:41 GMT

So the Lightning Network channels are declining while node count is up.
Does this mean the channel paths are calcifying around well worn routes? Any LN experts out there know what's causing this divergence?
https://void.cat/d/CjURoCagudMmfXUR6gHVSL.webp

2023-05-04 11:58:44 GMT

My bank decided to re-issue a credit card due to fraud risk
My cellphone is on the old credit card number
Bank logins use that cellphone as a 2FA (WTF)
So the bank effectively shut down access to their own online banking
The entertainment value is immense
Now wondering if central banks will be comedy central when trying to execute a CBDC

2023-04-21 23:55:39 GMT

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I really like the concept using macro liquidity, I’ve been wanting to get a feed into a Global Liquidity Index to do some indicators as well.

2023-04-17 13:35:26 GMT

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It’s a great point since AWS captures the compute environment and shapes some of the language environment. Unlike AWS, blockchain L1s are notoriously hard to change once in production. Thus they become disadvantaged against challenger L1s.

2023-04-17 11:35:48 GMT

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Key point is that a protocol has longevity and lock-in like the Internet’s TCP/IP and HTTP for the web. Meanwhile languages each have their time in the sun and then slowly lose favour. ETH is a language / compute environment so it doesn’t mean it will last forever like a protocol. BTC is more of a protocol. The time is coming when apps will not be written for ETH because it’s too long in the tooth, and too hard to build on.

2023-04-17 02:04:00 GMT

Ethereum is NOT a protocol, you know things like TCP/IP and HTTP. The crypto world is in a mass psychosis. VC funds have blossomed on the thesis that L1s are the “protocols” for finance.
No, these are language and compute environments.
ETH was the first language to gain popularity for DeFi apps. But it was created before they knew what DeFI needs were.
We have seen this before… COBOL, Fortran, Lisp, C, JS, Rust.
Every language builds from learnings from the past and upon the needs of new domains. Old languages continue to be used, but many wane, new languages gain adoption.
ETH’s Solidity is COBOL.
To be clear:
- A protocol is a standard for messaging.
- A language is a standard for compute.
The former has longer and stronger network effects.
Bitcoin is more of the former while ETH is more of the latter.
There will be a ongoing market for better decentralised compute networks. Like COBOL it’s quite unlikely Solidity will be what we build DeFi apps on in say 20 years.

2023-04-14 10:30:01 GMT

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Can’t do it. There’s no entities data on Ethereum, only available on BTC.

2023-04-13 16:22:29 GMT

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Amazing!

2023-04-13 15:40:15 GMT

#[0] - I think the holy grail UX to be close to Twitter level of editing is access to screen capture to clipboard and to paste image into a post; on desktop app. Upload from Photos app, while a good jump, doesn’t quite do it.

2023-04-13 15:11:44 GMT

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A composite of 17 on-chain and technical signals. They try to capture all aspects of the network including mining, valuation, investor hodl, supply in profit, destruction (experience associated with who is selling) and price action.

2023-04-13 12:12:33 GMT

FSI showing first signs of bottoming, BTCUSD up to now has been consolidating sideways against headwinds of FSI mean reverting (cooling off from overheated). Should see some fundamental tailwinds hear on in.
Also worth noting the volatility compression we have seen in the 4 weeks of sideways suggests the expected move should be decently big (much bigger than the recent 28k -> 30k move).
Note: Short timeframe forecasts has lower reliability than longer term macro readings.
This post only goes out to Nostr (not Twitter).
https://void.cat/d/MpaTRcsHGtjFHzzXTh5H8N.webp

2023-04-09 02:47:12 GMT

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Pretty sure he's gonna lose that bet, but will win on publicity.
Hyperinflation happens on single nation state economies. Very hard to do it on a global reserve currency, the world economy has too much inertia to move that quick.

2023-04-09 02:44:09 GMT

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ami mofo

2023-04-09 02:36:28 GMT

FSI update:
It's mean reverted back from extremely overheated preventing further upward momentum. (I'm waiting for it to bottom before going long)
Taking a guess at one more week before bullishness.
https://void.cat/d/WHr7cwPT7iBaZP4bKug88P.webp

2023-04-08 10:36:57 GMT

Decent liquidity gap to $42k. April should be an interesting month to watch.
https://void.cat/d/ViyboJ3pBDKqzz2VxJZmRF.webp

2023-04-07 05:15:51 GMT

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So you’re saying the crocodile is Gary Gensler and the fisherman is SBF.

2023-03-28 07:20:34 GMT

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It’s more that it’s hard to rally much until the fundamentals cool down.

2023-03-28 02:54:54 GMT

Idea: write a ChatGPT API bot that inputs the most topical posts on Twitter across various interest verticals and seeds conversations on Nostr.
Nostr needs more than Bitcoiners talking.

2023-03-28 02:46:05 GMT

FSI update:
Still strongly in a mean reversion phase and a very rare bearish divergence. Interpretation is that a few weeks of time is needed before fundamental powered bullish action can engage.
This is another Nostr post not going out on Twitter. Feel free to tell Twitter.
https://void.cat/d/6n4DPq5AKeTqRZYXW1vFQS.webp

2023-03-27 21:10:31 GMT

Been hanging with normies IRL this month and whenever I can, I ask whether they know what a CBDC is, almost always they have never heard of the term unless they have an anti-vax stance or are versed in Bitcoin.
Mainstream media has long lost its value, just a net negative spewing propaganda.

2023-03-27 21:06:22 GMT

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The priority right now is to get capitalisation to a level where separation of money and state can happen. Till then buy and hodl even if it concentrates coins is debatably a good act. After $1m per coin it’ll be a reserve currency and you can sell it; it’ll be on the denominator of pricing goods and services, and won’t impact capitalisation.
In this scenario I’m assuming Block will be doing impactful work with its gains rather than seeking world domination.

2023-03-23 11:51:39 GMT

Fundamental Strength Indicator (tracking 17 on-chain and technical indicators) now in the overheated zone. It's rare, second time since 2021.
Means we are in for a cool down period of a few weeks, doesn't mean things dump, means upward momentum is limited.
Mean reversion forces are stronger than momentum here.
https://void.cat/d/RRzgKiQQe544fJ3ZR6g3Di.webp

2023-03-23 11:20:19 GMT

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If people started voting with feet a 1000 Lichtensteins would flourish to meet them.

2023-03-23 09:15:37 GMT

The most democratic thing a citizen can do is to vote with your feet and be a global citizen.
Competition speaks louder than protests.

2023-03-22 00:09:56 GMT

People think CBDCs are a competing monetary network to #Bitcoin, but even for CBDCs, they are backed by sovereign wealth and surplus in an economy, and the day is fast coming where that surplus is parked into BTC.
The Bitcoin network or nation state CBDC networks; either way BTC continues to grow.

2023-03-21 21:30:30 GMT

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I’m recoding the website so will release it with a bunch of others all at once

2023-03-21 20:12:52 GMT

On #Bitcoin bull markets.
2012-2013 was driven by technologists and libertarians
2016-2017 was the start of retail flooding in
2020-2021 was institutional and HNW money finding a footing
2024-2025 will be driven by sovereigns in a race for defensive positioning

2023-03-18 01:29:41 GMT

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Weekly.

2023-03-17 03:45:37 GMT

#Bitcoin sustainability makes another ATH. Now 54% powered by clean energy, climbing month by month.
Model by #[0]
https://void.cat/d/2Lwnt5mFpDK8Q22Kjvemg8.webp

2023-03-12 19:32:12 GMT

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That’s what backwardation means in trader jargon.

2023-03-12 19:06:12 GMT

#Bitcoin demand from calendar futures dropped off a cliff (this tends to reflect sentiment from pro and institutional traders). Contango went into backwardation at levels akin to what we had at our $16k range.
Meanwhile the last 48hrs has seen bullish spot flows at exchanges when BTC dropped to the 19.5k-20.5k range, maybe from people fleeing USDC.
This looks responsible for causing a small short squeezed powered recovery.
Overall corn looks weak in the short term.

2023-03-08 08:32:35 GMT

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Because without TR, NOS = AWS

2023-03-07 19:44:28 GMT

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Do I believe BTC as drug money the reason it should not exist? No.
How about a currency for cybercrime, or to evade capital controls on enemies of the state?
How about ESG? No not at all. But it’s the current attack vector.
These are all false narratives aimed at Bitcoin, this work is about putting the record straight in order to accelerate its adoption.

2023-03-07 10:04:01 GMT

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Correction:
The network presently emits 0.9 grams annually of CO2e per dollar of market cap.
This is 329g of CO2e per kWh.

2023-03-07 09:55:48 GMT

While I'm in NZ, #[0] dropped by. We spent today day translating some of his work into live charts so the world can keep easy tabs on #Bitcoin's progress towards being carbon negative, least of all people shaping policy where this data is critical.
This will go live soon.
Emissions are roughly the same as 3 years ago despite market cap being 3x higher and user adoption 4x higher.
In terms of CO2e intensity, the #Bitcoin network is making great strides putting out 3x less CO2e per kWh of energy use (0.09 grams per kWh presently). Daniel's best extrapolation is that is on track to go carbon negative in 4 years.
https://void.cat/d/28Twe3bShHtzp6BMnEcdBB.webp

2023-03-07 03:58:13 GMT

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100%. If you are smart you will study the psychology of why people believe this, then exploit it to create your own cult or populist state or at the very least market your own shitcoin.

2023-03-03 21:10:48 GMT

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A big driver comes from the large spreads seen in crypto markets. They are now liquid enough to hold hundreds of million for a market neutral trading firm and they can get 5-15% annually on spreads instead of say 2% in traditional markets.
We’ll see these spreads close as more Wall St money enters.

2023-03-03 04:57:40 GMT

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She covers “crypto and NFTs” in her profile, hardly a neutral perspective from her. She even has a Patreon account to support her work.

2023-03-01 22:29:55 GMT

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Bottom line looks like CVDD floor.

2023-03-01 06:16:01 GMT

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How about only counting zaps from high trust accounts?
https://trust.nostr.band/

2023-03-01 05:49:56 GMT

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Ultimately there needs to be a Sybil resistant algo in place.
- reads the history of an account for past posts and interactions (which may expand beyond just the current “Twitter” implementation but into authentication across the web etc). Then score legitimacy of an account
- extend the zap protocol to tie LN wallets to a profile.

2023-03-01 05:13:27 GMT

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Good point.

2023-03-01 04:05:17 GMT

Likes should be deprecated in favour of zaps.
We should have terminology for popular posts. Like:
> 1k⚡️ killer post
> 1m ⚡️mega post
Etc.

2023-03-01 00:00:29 GMT

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A zap is a Nostr note containing metadata that links to a paid lightning invoice. So yes, it’s recorded on Nostr.
tip + note = zap
https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/57.md

2023-02-28 21:57:42 GMT

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A zap has an exact definition described in a NIP as part of a larger communication protocol

2023-02-28 03:03:41 GMT

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The mechanism exists but I didn’t say it was active. I see the mechanism being put in place right now by the absence of a spot ETF while futures ETFs get approved.
I think the suppression becomes an imperative when BTC comes close enough in size to threaten nation state reserve currencies, so $500k - $1m per coin.
For this reason the I think there will be a reserve currency resistance level which will act as a ceiling until it’s broken after which BTC price accelerates when fiat collapses under its own weight.

2023-02-27 05:51:25 GMT

Follow #[0] for latest quant research on #bitcoin carbon impact and the debunking of the central bank ESG propaganda

2023-02-24 07:20:55 GMT

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It’s the best UI for iPhone.

2023-02-24 07:20:14 GMT

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Build 8 fixes it. Thanks.

2023-02-23 19:59:02 GMT

My phone gets noticeably warm when running Damus (TestFlight Beta), I check the energy usage and it comes to 5.6x more energy than Twitter and 8.3x more than Telegram. #[0]

2023-02-23 13:48:39 GMT

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Everybody needs to stop zapping Lopp so Casa can continue to develop.

2023-02-23 08:11:15 GMT

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The value will accrue to the token. $BTC

2023-02-22 05:55:50 GMT

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We need someone to turn this post into an NFT.

2023-02-21 09:55:57 GMT

I’ve been zapped $20 this last week posting less than 10 tweets.
I have less than 4000 followers on Nostr and 1m followers on Twitter, that’s 250x less followers.
$20 x 250 = $5000 for 10 tweets.
Nostr has potential to be the next content creation platform that will pay better than YouTube.

2023-02-21 09:49:19 GMT

Tweeted, special thanks to Nostr my content sponsor. 😂
https://void.cat/d/URjGwZaZC1Tz1PFhVi5Avc.webp

2023-02-21 09:16:15 GMT

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DYOR and come back to me. I’ve tracked it since 2014.

2023-02-21 07:21:06 GMT

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Bitcoin
Ethereum
Litecoin
Dogecoin
Assuming a wallet is considered an account.

2023-02-21 03:52:46 GMT

Nostr has better network effect than Bitcoin. It should grow MUCH faster.
Nostr is governed by Metcalfe’s law, value of network = users ^ 2. Whereas BTC doesn’t get that luxury (buying BTC and HODLing does exponentially add value to the network).
I took Bitcoin 14 years to get to approx 500 million users. I suspect Nostr will get there in half the time, maybe much less.

2023-02-21 03:44:44 GMT

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Give it 5 years for the apps and revenue streams to improve. The top podcasters like Rogan talk about control over content and not being censored all the time.

2023-02-20 20:36:59 GMT

Thinking about putting a banner “Sponsored by Nostr” on my charts. That’ll confuse people on Twitter. 😂

2023-02-20 19:06:23 GMT

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Will vary between 1 day up to infinity

2023-02-20 13:47:54 GMT

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I used snort.social to upload the image. Prior images worked but not this one, not sure why, any ideas #[3] ?

2023-02-20 11:37:20 GMT

Simple is powerful. Here's the timing of BTC.
Prolly means we are entering the re-accumulation zone.
https://void.cat/d/Ni8LbibEsU3r3ziNcR3mQk.webp

2023-02-20 10:17:29 GMT

This cost basis contour map shows the dense areas where coins last changed hands between investors.
One of the key signals that the next bull market has commenced is when price rises with significant coins changing hands to chase it. That's what's happening right now.
Posted on Nostr first, Twitter gets a time delay.
https://void.cat/d/5eVZFpc29hkWGRce8iP9JZ.webp

2023-02-20 07:23:21 GMT

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The alpha for VCs will be investing in the coming generation of apps built on Nostr.
It’s not even a crypto VC play, the protocol is likely to be a legit part of the Internet stack.

2023-02-19 09:10:01 GMT

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Certainly solves bot farm spoofing of likes

2023-02-19 08:42:10 GMT

What’s the best Nostr client to post images? My ideal UI is the ability to cut and paste images from the clipboard just like Twitter’s web UI.

2023-02-19 08:24:16 GMT

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🤜🤛

2023-02-19 01:08:32 GMT

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I’m bullish, in a probabilistic sense of it. YMMV.

2023-02-19 01:07:11 GMT

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Here’s the list, I will be adding more in future:
MVRV
Investor Capitalisation
Volatility Cap
RHODL
Reserve Risk
Balanced Cap
CVDD Floor
Puell Multiple
Thermocap
Realised PnL
Real Profit to Value Ratio
Supply in Profit
NUPL
eSOPR
VWAP Volume
Mayer Multiple
RSI
Intention is to cover the different sectors of fundamentals:
- Valuation
- HODL strength
- Miner activity
- Destruction (OG coin movements)
- Profit
- On-chain volume
- Price action

2023-02-19 00:50:31 GMT

Fundamentals are starting to pickup on #Bitcoin.
Fundamental Strength Indicator no longer overheated and starting to rise (FSI tracks strength of 17 fundamental and technical indicators).
If price gets much above 25k, we could be in for a short squeeze.
https://void.cat/d/XXCLBSpgJQb7897C9VKXfe.webp

2023-02-17 19:46:48 GMT

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Take your 2FA offline on it. Delete 2FA from all of your online devices.

2023-02-16 06:27:23 GMT

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By jet plane and then motorhome.

2023-02-15 22:36:12 GMT

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Bitcoin has been an anomaly since inception.
Moving averages have never tracked an asset driven by a global adoption S curve right from the beginning.
Almost all technical indicators were fashioned to trade on assets at more or less saturation.

2023-02-15 14:59:04 GMT

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This is exactly why I hold a laptop in my cargo pants and boot up my desktop whenever I need to get things done quickly at the store.

2023-02-15 09:12:20 GMT

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At least we know if this continues, the security budget will be enough when the block subsidy ends.

2023-02-15 08:41:25 GMT

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This is probably the closest chart.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-congestion/

2023-02-14 20:04:46 GMT

What’s the best way to track user adoption data on Nostr?

2023-02-13 21:02:41 GMT

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I like the difficulty/hashrate curves. It sidesteps S2F model getting optimistic and climbing to infinity as it approaches zero block subsidy.

2023-02-13 00:46:10 GMT

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The irony is that baby Jesus crucified is a better metaphor IMO for his teachings (I’m not a Christian but respectfully observing). Jesus said to be like the little ones, which I think was about holding the values of innocence, purity, excitement and being wide eyed, essentially having what the Buddhists call “beginners mind” for the newness and beauty in every day.

2023-02-13 00:17:07 GMT

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Similar experience. IDGAF about Twitter these days. Being on Nostr and helping build its network effect will be where I will spend my time.

2023-02-12 21:05:21 GMT

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Historical context…
Nostr is what Silicon Valley wanted Twitter to be. A fundamental protocol for the internet.
Here’s some vintage blogging on this idea.
http://paulgraham.com/twitter.html
Many apps had already started to use it for connectivity, but in the end Twitter failed to open up, even making the decision to shut down its API to competing client apps. Other attempts were made to replicate the Twitter as a protocol idea but did not succeed.
Nostr is everything that was wanted but more, with Bitcoin/LN having solved internet-native payments, a holy grail computer science breakthrough that was not available in 2006 when this stuff was being conceived.
Nostr is not a Twitter clone. It’s a base layer protocol where many types of apps with social behaviour can be built. Telegram, Facebook Groups, MetaMask-like web extensions for authentication and payments, and an ability for a user to be validated through a history of behaviour. And much more not yet conceived.

2023-02-12 01:21:33 GMT

Through the lens of cost basis between new buyers and old hodlers this is where we are at in the macro cycle.
https://void.cat/d/SzFqujPvdAHiPFRLVj3ZcM.webp

2023-02-12 00:32:55 GMT

Bitcoin Fundamental Strength Indicator has been cooling off from overheated for 3 weeks, preventing further bullishness. Doesn't look done yet. Probably a good time to sit it out.
FSI tracks momentum strength on 17 technical and on-chain indicators (effectively MACD on my Bitcoin Macro Index which I posted once on Twitter).
PS. I'm posting charts on Nostr first, Twitter second with time delay (or maybe not at all).
https://void.cat/d/P2hyh6UgqnT4iEDmNuLgwT.webp

2023-02-08 22:14:10 GMT

Nostr is the result of Austrian School Economics. Twitter is Keynesian.

2023-02-07 21:32:26 GMT

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I’m still using snort.social on desktop browsers to post images. Be aware that Damus runs on a Mac but as an iOS app on Apple Silicon, it doesn’t support posting images yet and it uses a lot of energy.

2023-02-07 00:41:42 GMT

Twitter feels like toxicity and fake news pumped into my brain.
In stark contrast, Nostr feels like a place for civil conversation to build the future, with an overarching feeling of common ownership.
The last time I felt this excited about a technology was when I found Bitcoin in 2013.
Before that was pocket computers / smartphones in 1998.

2023-02-02 02:21:16 GMT

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Crossing $250k zone the headwinds get quite strong as paper price suppression would likely engage.
But another impact is the rollout of CBDCs, BTC would see a price premium (see Nigeria’s rollout). Central Banks cannot block all the fiat onramps to BTC while we have sovereign adoption of BTC happening.
I think of $250k - $1m as the battleground, above $1m then BTC runs to infinity. Below that it sees very strong price suppression.